Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

[Jude Iam]

hey richard,

THIS virus, this worsethaneverhorribleplaguecursedeath zommbifiingeatyourbrainandkillyoudeaderthandead covd 19 has .26 % fatality. and lots of no to mild symptom cases.

i'm betting on my (and YOUR) 99.8% chances of being JUST FINE. especially if you're breathing lots of oxygen, smiling, eating organic, drinking pure water, taking zinc, D, C and probiotics, getting some exercise and love.

i happen to be in the double vulnerable category, so you know that expression 'you bet your life'? i am.

for shopping, banking, lobbies i don requisite face covering. for those in fear i stay distanced.
with the more informed, sane and healthy, we are people together as we ever have been and ever will be.

by and large, the distinction this particular virus will have is not in its uniqueness but in world's response to it.

So we have 26% of the ICU beds available, plenty of slack for us to go rip-roaring-around, amirite Jude?

[Barry]

You asked me question about my personal beliefs and and how my conviction expresses itself in my personal behavior and I gave you a straight forward answer.

I've asked you a similar question and you've now ducked it 3 times while lashing out each time.

Let's try again.

I know you are "civic-minded". Truly, though I have different opinions about how best to express that.

According to the article you posted, "If you have COVID-19, stay home. If you must go out, wear a mask. Everyone else, wash your hands, and get on with your life " since there is "no spread of COVID-19 in the community (shopping, restaurants, barbers, etc.) "

Is that what you are doing? Are you going out and "rip roar around"? Are you taking no precautions besides washing your hands?

To answer your (now clearly stated) question: I'll generally follow the CDC, State and County health guidelines, Probably even more strict when inside and possibly less strict when outside.

barry,
since you acknowledge that you don't read or watch much of what's posted here on this topic,
but continue to post and harangue, what's the point of dialoging with you? it's worthless.

you insult me with sarcasm about "typical civic-minded conviction" as though i lacked it, ...

[Jude Iam]

barry, your answer - weeks ago - was you'd wait for a year then get vaccinated.
that does not speak to from now till then, then being whenever a vaccine was ready.
now you've added that you'll follow CDC and other government orders.

that seems to be a significant part of our divergence; while i have no option but to wear a mask shopping, etc.
i do a lot of looking at who is issuing orders, who's behind/around them, motivations/vested interest, etc.
also everything about the virus itself, from all sources, fascinating and rigorous - and leading to less masking.
i am not in fear at all, but 'swim' in the consensual reality of all those like you, in fear and following orders, so i must be masked when shopping, etc. i largely avoid society now, to the degree it still exists. i go where there are few people so i can breathe freely, in all senses.

another difference i note here is what we deem "lashing out" -
for me, it's your sarcasm about my civic-mindedness, implying that i have none.
for you, it's my pointing out that conversing without reviewing foundational material is worthless.

i lightheartedly wrote the phrase 'rip roaring' and it seems to have stuck a nerve, images of a resurrected typhoid mary... fear not (additionally) - nowhere to go, nothing to do. (there are a precious few small gatherings, hesitantly shared if at all, of beings maskless, dancing together outdoors, reminiscent for me of those who used to worship together in secret for fear of persecution.) these days are slip sliding away. morphing into a more separate and far more fearful world, sadly.
may there be an equal or more powerful force of love and connection sweeping through humanity. perhaps the global response to police race murders expresses that.
may all our connections be restored and improved in all ways, far beyond safe - healthy, vital, deep and true.

You asked me question about my personal beliefs and and how my conviction expresses itself in my personal behavior and I gave you a straight forward answer.

I've asked you a similar question and you've now ducked it 3 times while lashing out each time.

Let's try again.

I know you are "civic-minded". Truly, though I have different opinions about how best to express that....

[Jude Iam]

oy, fred, math. and these terms; i have no idea about either the NYC division/percentage/population
nor what sonoma county categories stand for. sorry but these have to be researched specifically. seems to me that covid is certainly worse that the usual flu but clearly a FAR cry from what it was touted to be.

i have been looking at much (right?!) information and doing my best to sort out good sources (knowledgeable and without vested interests) and especially note where information is confirmed by others. numbers i cite are hopefully with their source so can be pursued to validate or challenge.

i am admittedly predisposed to be suspect of governments. i was old enough to be conscious at the time of JFK's assassination but it took me a long time, years, to realize - and accept - that's what it was. it is really hard to recognize evil around us, in the form of people in/behind our own government, like coming to terms with sexual abuse from your own family. at this point, i put nothing past the realm of possibility. the curtain has been lifted on pedophilia in the highest echelons. brief reviews of operation paperclip and mk ultra documents will give the horrible truth to anyone who cares to look. the forces that profit from both sides of a war, that place leaders in power and remove them - that's the larger context in which i consider domestic and world events.

people like game of thrones - i've missed watching that, but i see about how much i can learn the game the actual rulers of planet Earth are working.

Jude, I appreciate all the documentation you provided ...

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 7

11 New Cases in Sonoma County last night.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 8

11 New cases last night. None were in West County.

WHO walks back statement about asymptomatic transmission being very rare https://www.foxnews.com/health/who-o...sion-very-rare

[luke32]

Barry,

I thought you were going to keep the junk out of this thread and restrict it to the numbers.

Its getting so filled with nonsense that it is difficult to find the numbers.

[heresbruce]

Starting to remind me of MAD magazine... a bit funny, a bit offensive, but just in that so revealing in who makes up West county... I had no idea how wacko WACCO was...

Barry,

I thought you were going to keep the junk out of this thread and restrict it to the numbers.

Its getting so filled with nonsense that it is difficult to find the numbers.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 9

7 New cases reported in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County.

Hispanic rates have increased to 75% of all Sonoma County cases. The Sonoma County hispanic population tends to be younger. This has kept our death and hospitalization rates lower than some other Bay Area Counties. Several states are seeing case numbers climbing. California is one of them.

[rossmen]

The spread of covid is highly related to poverty. Soco and cali numbers are rising just like Florida and tehas because poor communities can't shelter like us rich in westco. Fortunately treatment has evolved. Because of economic livlyhood needs government edicts have moved from panicdemic mode to managed spread. The rich and enabler mase complain but as long as there's open er death beds we're good.

Have I written anything different from you goat?

[wisewomn]

Lockdowns have proven very effective according to a couple of studies:

https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/mill...rce=11-06-2020

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 10

9 New Cases reported in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County.

When N95 masks become available it might be a good idea to pick a few up incase things get worse. As we have all been told wearing a mask mostly protects the other guy from you but if the other guy won't wear one you can protect yourself from him with a higher grade N95 mask or even a full on P100 industrial respirator. They can be purchased on Ebay for about $40.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

Exactly right. If you aren't getting enhanced unemployment or even the $1200 stimulus because you are undocumented. Sheltering in place = starving in place.

The spread of covid is highly related to poverty. Soco and cali numbers are rising just like Florida and tehas because poor communities can't shelter like us rich in westco. Fortunately treatment has evolved. Because of economic livlyhood needs government edicts have moved from panicdemic mode to managed spread. The rich and enabler mase complain but as long as there's open er death beds we're good.

Have I written anything different from you goat?

[ecojaf]

Yes, Covid has barely had an impact on Sonoma County (and really not all that much of one even in SF). If you want perspective on what it has done other places take a look at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html

Maybe our combination of extreme privilege and luck will hold, but the way the world is falling apart out there (not just talking covid) we may need an actual bubble, not just the metaphorical one in which we live and partake in these enthusiastic debates.

My personal hunch is that this coming fall/winter is not going to be fun (covid resurgence or outbreaks in places that have largely been spared this time around coinciding with flu season). This is a disease that from an initial cluster spread across the entire globe in a month or two, and now there are thousands upon thousands of such clusters already in existence all over the globe.

Fire season is another wildcard. Airborne viruses can get transported deep into the lungs on pollution particles.

Yes, right now covid is not at all devastating in Sonoma County. If there weren't any other cyclical factors or wildcards that could come into play, maybe we really shouldn't worry about it so much; so what if we have a couple hundred active cases at a time . . . we're largely a healthy population; live in relatively low density; eat good healthy diets; don't have high rates of diabetes, etc. (let the vulnerable isolate themselves and let the rest of us carry on).

On the other hand it could be a real good thing to nearly eradicate it entirely before fall/winter, before flu season, before wildfire season. We simply have no idea. This is a brand new disease. We have a couple months experience with it. When we throw around numbers based on this limited time frame of existence with the disease in which very little real hard knowledge has been accumulated we're all just talking out of our asses, making assumptions, speculating. It's the same as if you brought somebody here in January and in a few weeks they came to firmly believe that Sonoma County is a very wet, rainy place with little sunshine.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 11

21 New Cases reported last night in Sonoma County. None of the 21 were in West County Residents.

Cases in California are on the rise. Still at the present rate of infection it would take about 13.5 years for 75% of Sonoma County Residents to become infected. In that figure I estimate 8 unreported cases for every 1 reported. That could be high or low. We will know more when they do wide spread screening. But we are now told that may be a very imperfect science because the tests may show positives for other corona viruses that many may have had in the past.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 12

21 New Cases in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County.

This is the second day in a row with 21 new cases.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 13

30 New cases reported in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County.

This is the single largest case number during this pandemic. ICU beds are down to 11.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 14

6 New cases reported in Sonoma County. None were in West County residents.

Interesting video about the tuberculosis vaccine and how it may be the reason death rates from Covid-19 are low in countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh. The BCG vaccine appears to offer some protection from most viruses and lowers childhood death rates. BCG a standard vaccine in those countries.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHq5wSdg4HE

[geomancer]

This is a valuable public service you're doing. Saves me the hassle of going to the Co. website. It would be great if you could show a dashboard with a running total of all tests in the county, the daily total, and the daily positive rate.

[Finell]

I am withdrawing the reply to geomancer that I posted here earlier today about the Leaden Rule (No good deed goes unpunished). I intended it as harmless humor, but Barry showed me in an email that my reply could be misinterpreted. Upon reading Barry's email, I realize that he is correct.

I did not intend to criticize geomancer or his reply to Goat Rock Ukulele. I did not intend to imply that geomancer was criticizing Goat Rock Ukulele.

I apologize to geomancer and Goat Rock Ukulele. I also apologize to anyone else who was offended by my remark.

.... It would be great if you could show a dashboard with a running total of all tests in the county, the daily total, and the daily positive rate.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 15

7 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County.

Type A blood puts you at somewhat higher risk of serious outcomes from Covid-19
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...covid-19-67619

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[Finell]

Do you really not comprehend the loss of life, illness, pain, and suffering that this COVID-19 pandemic has caused in our state, our nation, and our world? That the small percentage of deaths you are so happy about represents hundreds of thousands of lives snuffed out? That many healthcare professionals died caring for the sick and dying? And don't you dare bet on our chances, or my chances, of joining the dead.

Here are the latest figures:

Worldwide: 7,690,000 cases; 428,000 deaths
United States: 2,160,000 cases' 118,000 deaths
California: 151,000 cases; 5,089 deaths

These facts demolish your argument that COVID-19 is just fake news, dreamed up by news media and Democrats.

I don't expect to convince you of anything. My concern is that your posts might convince others to abandon the only weapons we have now to combat this plague: limiting physical contact with others, maintaining physical distance from those we encounter, wearing face coverings (this won't stop transmission of the virus, but it may reduce the viral load enough to prevent some cases of COVID-19), and practicing good hygiene. You not only endanger those who believe you. You also endanger all of us: we cannot limit all contact with others, so the number of people you persuade to engage in unsafe conduct increases our, and your, vulnerability exponentially.

My wife and I regularly walk trails for exercise. The number of individuals engaging in unsafe conduct, refusing to maintain physical distance and refusing to wear masks, is steadily increasing. The problem is greatest with younger adults and adolescents. Those of us past middle age have the sense to behave more prudently.

You also endanger all of us to the extent that you convince others that their immune system—enhanced by "breathing lots of oxygen, smiling, eating organic, drinking pure water, taking zinc, D, C and probiotics, getting some exercise and love"—will prevent COVID-19. I agree with you that those things promote health and wellbeing and can improve the immune system's function. I would add good personal hygiene, adopting a plant-based diet (i.e., vegan), laughing, and dancing. But that will not prevent infection by the hyper-contagious SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. No factual or scientific information supports your argument on this. Even an optimal immune system will not prevent aggressive viral or bacterial infection. That is not what the immune system is supposed to do.

THIS virus, this worsethaneverhorribleplaguecursedeath zommbifiingeatyourbrainandkillyoudeaderthandead covd 19 has .26 % fatality. and lots of no to mild symptom cases.

i'm betting on my (and YOUR) 99.8% chances of being JUST FINE. especially if you're breathing lots of oxygen, smiling, eating organic, drinking pure water, taking zinc, D, C and probiotics, getting some exercise and love.

[rossmen]

Of course the purpose of our immune system is not to prevent infection, it's to survive infection. I'm glad you practice an immune enhancing lifestyle. It will extend your life. And yes covid kills, we will know even more people taken out by this novel virus, and the efforts to slow it's spread. Science takes time, and fortunately panicdemic has focused the world scientific community, and political, economic and social discourse. Please keep contributing.

Do you really not comprehend the loss of life, illness, pain, and suffering that this COVID-19 pandemic has caused in our state, our nation, and our world? ...

[wisewomn]

and also CIVILIZED.

[Jude Iam]

Every single detected case with no symptoms or slight symptoms is exactly what you are convinced is not possible.

(and "dreamed up by Democrats"? that's your surmise, not mine.)

Do you really not comprehend the loss of life, ...

[podfish]

Every single detected case with no symptoms or slight symptoms is exactly what you are convinced is not possible....

if I read Finell's concerns right, you're missing his issue completely. Are you reading him as saying that covid is always fatal? so that people who have mild or asymptomatic cases disprove his statements?

I don't see that at all. The issue is far simpler to state - many people are severely harmed by covid infections. That's indisputable. Many seem to downplay its severity. I don't think anyone is saying it's inevitable that unless you maintain hyper-vigilance, you're doomed. What they are saying is that the risks are so high, at least to some people, that extreme measures to protect your neighbors, if not yourself, are morally required.

People can of course dispute whether that's a fair expectation of them. It does demand a lot of sacrifice, and obviously many who are asked to make that sacrifice aren't particularly willing to. But that's the issue at hand.

[Jude Iam]

nope, peter. I replied to steven's statements that a really healthy immune system was virtually irrelevant to not getting a case of c19 - this here:
But that will not prevent infection by the hyper-contagious SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. No factual or scientific information supports your argument on this. Even an optimal immune system will not prevent aggressive viral or bacterial infection. That is not what the immune system is supposed to do.

WHAT, pray tell, IS the immune system supposed to do if not exactly THAT?

And, about that moral part:
to what degree are we responsible for our own health? self-responsible, not doctor-fix-me. each one.
this is bordering on/analogous to the difference between those who get the flu shots
and those who don't get the shots - or the flu,
and are not about to start.

one diff is, though, that I'm ok with people deciding if they get that shot or not.
other peeps want to decide for me if/that I get that shot. that's a big difference.
someone else's / the states decision. in my body? no.
learn more about what's in vaccines, and what might be in this one. get back to us when you find out.

be well & have some fun. Jude

if I read Finell's concerns right, you're missing his issue completely. ...

[geomancer]

Turns out there is a modest advantage to having type O blood.

23andme: 23andMe finds evidence that blood type plays a role in COVID-19

But a first blush look at the information from the more than 750,000 participants in the study shows the following:

• The preliminary data suggest that O blood type appears to be protective against the virus when compared to all other blood types.
• Individuals with O blood type are between 9-18% percent less likely than individuals with other blood types to have tested positive for COVID-19, according to the data.
• There appeared to be little differences in susceptibility among the other blood types.
• These findings hold when adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, and co-morbidities.
• Although one study found the blood group O only to be protective across rhesus positive blood types, differences in rhesus factor (blood type + or -) were not significant in 23andMe data. Nor was this a factor in susceptibility or severity in cases.
• Among those exposed to the virus — healthcare and other front line workers — 23andMe found that blood type O is similarly protective, but the proportion of cases within strata is higher.

Also:


The ultimate covid-19 mystery: Why does it spare some and kill others?

"One, the ABO gene, determines blood type. The researchers found that patients who had Type A blood had a 50 percent higher risk of needing oxygen or a ventilator. Type O blood seemed to have a partial protective effect."

"The consumer genetics giants Ancestry.com and 23andMe are getting involved. 23andMe recently released preliminary findings showing that people with Type O blood are 9 to 18 percent less likely to test positive for covid-19 than people with other blood types."

[wisewomn]

Thanks, Geo.

It's also interesting, to me at least, that Type O is the oldest blood type. I wonder if it is at all related to the fact that having Neanderthal DNA in your genome gives some survival advantages and increased immunity..

TheScientist: Advantages of Neanderthal DNA in the Human Genome

The Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Neanderthal DNA in the Human Genome

Back in the early days, Homo sap and Neanderthals did interbreed, which is why there are traces of their DNA in some populations.

Turns out there is a modest advantage to having type O blood....

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 16

9 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County residents.

A common steroid cuts death rates for those on a ventilator by one-third and 25% for those on oxygen only.

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