Covid-19 Fatality Rate

[phredo]

Jude, I appreciate all the documentation you provided and managed to read some it it (it's a lot!). I have two questions for you that perhaps are answered in the documentation, but you may have ready answers.

From a cursory lookup, I found the "confirmed deaths" in New York City at 17,146 and the population at 8,300,000. Dividing 17146 by .002 gives 8,573,000, roughly 100% of the population. Do you think that 100% of New Yorkers contracted Covid? Are are there extenuating conditions?

The Sonoma County dashboard's "Cases by sort" says:

Source Percent
Close Contact 63%
Community 17%
Under Investigation 10%
Travel 9%
(I left out the raw numbers for ease in reading)

What do the 27% Community and Under Investigation (e.g., not known) cases represent in your thinking?

I'm not disagreeing with your information, just trying to understand. There are other points I would like to understand better in reconciling the idea that Covid is not much different than the annual flu, such as dead doctors and nurses in what seem to be large numbers than I never heard of with the flu, but if you wouldn't mind addressing the two questions above, I would be appreciative.

[Chauncey Gardner]

Well said the numbers are in and no homeless folks died. Many people did die as it happens every single day. As I have said before if you are concerned for you own health and think that you would die from the flue then you most certainly should stay put those of you who did not get the vaccine yet but will for sure when it comes out also should stay home and then stay home for another 2 weeks after the 'vaccination' so that you will not be spreading your illness on others.

I love wearing a mask everywhere and i still recognize people with their wierd face coverings. But in the end if the danger narrative were even partially true we would have a complete wipe out of our homeless populations here and all around the bay area not to mention all the millions of homeless around the world still standing. I am wondering what other parts of this narrative are falling by the way side now that the attention is glaring over the police murderers. How many of the narrative pieces would have to arrive at the proven false stage before the detractors would be satisfied that they were being cowed? I will be back with more bricks. The cops have stacked them up just outside your houses.
Anyone who comes outside who is afraid of getting sick or catching a virus should stay home. Never leave.

Plus maybe find something better to do then to hover over this page. lol

...fatality rate is now acknowledged at .26% and that mostly elderly sick - less than usual flu. ...

[rossmen]

And sweden is doing very well. Time reveals the stupidity of panicdemic. My preferred belief is that the road is paved with good intentions. Public health officers are just trying to save lives. As this facade crumbles to the inevitable march of science and we let go of fear, appreciate the lone writers willing to challenge. Too often our mind is locked by preconception and prejudice.

Do you know what is happening? Or do you want to know what's happening. It's happening and panic gets in the way of understanding. The numbers show that opening is a good thing, glad we have more testing.

Sweden tried that. We know what happened.

[sealwatcher]

Re Sweden "doing very well" -
The Guardian: We should have done more, admits architect of Sweden's Covid-19 strategy

And sweden is doing very well. ...

[Jude Iam]

deaths by covid to be balanced against deaths and suffering incurred by months of quarantine and lockdown: suicides, homicides, abuse, addiction, etc. acknowledged by psychologists, social workers and others. harder to categorize as 'cause of death' from lockdown, but leading to these people's death nonetheless.

Re Sweden "doing very well" -
The Guardian: We should have done more, admits architect of Sweden's Covid-19 strategy

[phredo]

Jude, what I was asking with those statistics from New York City I can ask more simply. If the 17k+ deaths attributed to the virus figure is accurate and if the deaths per case is 0.2%, that would figure out to saying that all 8.5 million New Yorkers, 100% of them, must have gotten the virus. Do you think that that is what has happened, that everyone in New York City has had it?

[Chauncey Gardner]

Everyone had the flu here and on the east coast. It has passed through.

...Do you think that that is what has happened, that everyone in New York City has had it?

[Chauncey Gardner]

Well the numbers are in and the flu had little to no effect more than last years REGULAR virus here ..Oh wait last years flu, that one killed 800 thousand people world wide. Are we looking at a government that is so inept that they did not pull the pandemic trigger until the following year?

It is confusing for sure but it seems that the flue season in Oct. Nov. and Dec. was in full roar with many people like myself getting the flu and sick for the first time in 3 years. The catch phrases like 'flatten the curve' mean literally nothing as the absurdity of this event starts to reveal itself. Where is the curve and how would we actually know if it flattens..The numbers of people who actually had Corona may never be known as nurses doctors and hospitals were encouraged by the CDC to claim any deaths as suspicious of covid as a covid death.

What I keep running into is that the fundamental story line of this flu is flawed and thus nothing that we are all so sure about can be counted on for a true picture. This fracturing of the information field has been going on for some time but seems to be now whipping back and forth in the winds of indignant politics.

The fact is that the flu did not come from anyone eating bat soup. This first piece is easily debunked in that soup is cooked, people are not eating raw bat soup anywhere. The second piece is also a huge leap. A bat and a lemur produced a viral offspring that kills people. That particular bat was boiled and she ate it and then got sick and then killed the world. It reads implausibly because it is the leap that had to be made to make ALLLL the others. Yet here we are looking at that as the foundation for this entire event.

Many believed that two steel buildings made to withstand being struck by a jetliner could both fall by being hit by one. Not just fall but fall on their footprints because they each were struck by a jetliner. Many people believed that could happen. But then when they learned that building 7 also fell onto its footprint and that buildings five and six also fell on their own footprints. They will scratch their heads and say 'this cannot be true'.. those buildings did not fall'
I understand the fundament of their existence is to follow along with what ever horse shit is handed down from on high.

So for those who understand my premise I will wrap up this numbers conversation by stating what we know so far of this narrative that has been proven to be incorrect, not only incorrect but are the fundamental foundation stones of the entire narrative. This is not about being right or wrong this is noticing a pattern that is being used to usher people in mass groups not out of a real sense of urgent danger but out of a need to test how the public will react to being cowed into their little stalls with fear and loathing. This is my take on the subject . I cannot respect the word from a community that created and allowed 911 to happen, I cannot expect that they would have my best interests at heart. I suspect that they have one thing in mind and that is to perpetrate horrors and blame other people or things on their designs. TO maintain power structures in our country the media is used to help convince the public of the narratives..We have seen that very ardently presented in the last few months.Every News duo reading off the same scripted words in the same way to all of us as if it is that easy to flim flam the public. As the idea of independent thoughts and indi media are no where to be found in the programming we find on mass platforms like NBC,CBS, and FOX we have to now fend for ourselves with cameras and punked journalism. Uh ONe more time now..


-Lemur and Bat exchange bodily fluids to form a new virus strain that kills humans ..
-woman eats bat soup
-woman acquires virus that did not die from soup making process
-Barry helps flatten curve in Sonoma County

ICU beds is where the rubber meets the road! ..

[podfish]

Everyone had the flu here and on the east coast. It has passed through.

that's a funny definition of 'everyone'. Doesn't actually mean 'every one'.

I'm not sure you're wrong about it being overblown. How could I be? one of the points of all the extraordinary preventative measures is so that we don't suffer the consequences if it's not. Did you ever lick a light pole when you were back east? did your tongue actually freeze to it? (couldn't resist that example, but maybe a better one is that if you don't actually touch the hot frying pan, you can't be sure it'd burn you).

The thing that I think you and the others are doing, which IMHO costs you a lot of ears that might otherwise hear you, is speak with great confidence about what a scam and a hoax this all is. That attitude sounds way too much like the one all those guys had, whose tombstones read: "hold my beer!" Lots of people who say that, do get their beer back, though, I'll give you that.

[geomancer]

Not me, I got the vaccine. Any more thoughts on polio Chauncey?

Everyone had the flu here and on the east coast. It has passed through.

[gypsey]

I'd love to see the statistics of "death and suffering by lockdown." Yes, stress is up including addictive behaviors and other issues, but how does this equate with the more severe danger of COVID 19?.There are ways to help people suffering from the stress of lockdown. But there is no way right now to prevent death from COVID 19.

I am reminded of the opposition to the ban on smoking in public places and that other public health issue, the institution of seat belts. For me personally, I am enjoying many aspects of lockdown---more time sharing with friends and family, more time to think and be creative. I also welcome the easing of restrictions and glad to be back in the parks. I recognize not everyone feels this way and many need support. But we are ALIVE.

I invite everyone to review their history. IN the flu pandemic of 1918 (of the half MILLION people in the US alone who were killed, it was during the second wave, not during the relatively mild "first wave." Many died because of magical thinking similar to what I have read in posts on WACCO and elsewhere. What we can hope for is that COVID 19 does not evolve into something more lethal but rather like the flu of 1918, wears itself out. Especially if devleoping a vaccine takes the current average of four years.

deaths by covid to be balanced against deaths and suffering incurred by months of quarantine and lockdown:...

[phredo]

A fact that gives support to the idea that everyone in New York City has had or been exposed to Covid is that daily deaths there have shrunk to essentially zero after totaling about 0.2% of the total population, which I hadn't realized until I looked it up today. My impression was that antibody tests had not shown nearly that high percent positive, but perhaps it's the case. On the other hand, lockdown there was pretty tight, I believe, so perhaps cases will begin to climb again now that it's lifting. But "zero" is pretty impressive.

If everyone *has* had it who is going to get it, I guess there are some other questions we could ask ourselves.
Did the lockdown flatten the curve so that it helped prevent more chaos in the hospitals? In what way is a 0.2% death rate "acceptable"? That's about the same percent who die each year from heart disease or from cancer. We have made it difficult to use tobacco, but we haven't outlawed junk food or passed laws saying that everyone needs to exercise every day, both of which would cause much less damage to peoples' livelihoods, convenience and mental and physical health than the lockdown does. Did the NYC lockdown have any effect on preventing deaths? Maybe the Swedish way, with some more attention paid to protecting the most vulnerable, would have been a better way. Then again, if New York authorities had acted faster to lock down, perhaps the deaths would be lower yet.

Of course, if NYC cases pick up again all those questions start to become moot.

[rossmen]

Cherry picked stats and misquotes = UK propaganda. Sweden's death rate per capita is about 1 per 2 thousand. UK about 1 per 1 thousand, the highest in europe. There is lots of propaganda being generated by the health establishment and forwarded by corporate media.

It's perfectly understandable that government response to this panicdemic be mostly mistakes and that governments who have made more mistakes critique governments who have made less.

Re Sweden "doing very well" -
The Guardian: We should have done more, admits architect of Sweden's Covid-19 strategy

[geomancer]

The fatality rate, which you underestimate, is strongly dependent on the quality of medical care. Swamp the health care system, as happened in Italy and NYC, leads to a higher fatality rate.

Check out this image:



The over-70 cohorts took a beating in Italy. The image is from https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

[rossmen]

The real fatality rate, which is yet to be determined, has been consistently overestimated. That's why the estimates keep dropping. The numbers in this chart are interesting and useful for other reasons. Notice that they are labeled case fatality.

And effective medical treatment for covid is like government health policy, lot of mistakes to learn from. For example respirators. When are we going to give up the meme that they've saved lives and admit they killed many? Doctors have. I'd like to see Japan on this chart.

The fatality rate, which you underestimate, is strongly dependent on the quality of medical care. ...

[Finell]

HUH???
COVID-19 in New York City

Where are these crazy numbers and bogus mathematics about New York City's COVID-19 cases coming from? Especially when the actual numbers are public information? And can be obtained in under 2 minutes?

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population of New York City was 8.399 million in 2018. The bad news is this: New York City has been hit especially hard by because (1) it has a big population and (2) most of it has very high population density (making contageon easier). In addition, before the seriousness of COVID-19 was fully appreciated, New York City unwittingly imported the disease from infected individuals travelling to or through the city. Neither New York State nor New York City reacted quickly or vigorously enough to stop the disease from ripping through the city. Other places, including Germany and California, mobilized more quickly. Normally, the federal government would have led the way because COVID-19 is a national and international problem, not a local problem. But we do not have normal or effective leadership at the federal level.

The good news is this: Contrary to some of the statements by participants here on WaccoBB, the number of COVID-19 cases in is a tad less than 8.399 million. According the city's health department <https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page>, as of June 9, 2020, 12:45 p.m. Eastern Time, New York City's cumulative COVID-19 case total was 204,576 (2.4% of the 2008 population). That is a horrific human tragedy, but nothing close to 100% of the population. The death total, confirmed by testing for SARS-CoV-2, was 17,203 (0.20% of the population, 8.4% of the cases). Physicians reported another 4,715 deaths due to COVID-19 or similar symptoms, but these patients were not tested for the virus; the city's health department classifies these as "probable" COVID-19 deaths. If you add these to the lab-confirmed deaths, that brings the death count to 21,918 (0.26% of the population, 10.7% of the cases). This is, again, a human tragedy. But it is not anywhere close to the entire population of New York City infected with SARS-CoV-2.

Please Be Careful What You Say

Everyone is under unprecedented stress from this extremely contageous, serious, and sometimes fatal disease. You owe it to your neighbors not to make assertions of purported fact without checking your facts. I do not understand how anyone could have thought that the entire City of New York had caught COVID-19. But two or three participants in this thread somehow reached that wildly incorrect conclusion.

False statements in the opposite direction are potentially even more harmful because thay can induce others to abandon caution. Statements that the risk of catching the COVID-19 has been exaggerated, that your natural immune system gives you all the protection you need (tell that to the families of the 21,918 dead in New York City), that zinc supplements or colloidal silver will protect you, and the like are reckless and dangerous. Imagine how you would feel if someone died because of your inaccurate statement.

[Finell]

Neither my wife nor I has had the flu since the vacines became available. We get the vaccine, not the flu.

Not me, I got the vaccine. Any more thoughts on polio Chauncey?

[Finell]

The statistic is that .002 of the population has died of COVID-19. So, of course, deaths divided by the death fraction equals the population. The statistic says nothing about how many NYC inhabitants have contracted COVID-19.

...I found the "confirmed deaths" in New York City at 17,146 and the population at 8,300,000. Dividing 17146 by .002 gives 8,573,000, roughly 100% of the population. Do you think that 100% of New Yorkers contracted Covid? ...

[Finell]

The deaths per population, not the deaths per case, is 0.2%

Jude, what I was asking with those statistics from New York City I can ask more simply. If the 17k+ deaths attributed to the virus figure is accurate and if the deaths per case is 0.2%, that would figure out to saying that all 8.5 million New Yorkers, 100% of them, must have gotten the virus. Do you think that that is what has happened, that everyone in New York City has had it?

[Finell]

Moderator's Help Requested

The title of title of this discussion is"Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers." This discussion is in the General Community (i.e., Sonoma County) section of WaccoBB.

New York City is not in Sonoma County. Sonoma County is not in New York City. Therefore, discussion of New York City's COVID-19 numbers is off-topic here. Q.E.D.

More generally, an increasing fraction of this discussion has become off-topic. I would appreciate the moderator's removing all off-topic posts.

[Jude Iam]

Well, bully for you and your wife.

Many of us get NEITHER the vaccine NOR the flu.
Year after year after year.

Neither my wife nor I has had the flu since the vacines became available. We get the vaccine, not the flu.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

The deaths from Covid-19 are higher than the reported numbers. When New York and New Jersey were being overwhelmed many people died at home and were never counted. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...oll-total.html

The real fatality rate, which is yet to be determined, has been consistently overestimated. ...

[phredo]

"Please Be Careful What You Say"

Really?. I don't know if that was directed at me, but it sounds like it since I'm the one who brought up New York City. My first post was questioning Jude as to how she could think that the fatality rate is only 0.2%, using the numbers we all know comparing supposed total cases with supposed total deaths, which would give a much higher rate of death. The last post I wrote was after I had discovered that the number of deaths in NYC have fallen to zero and trying to understand why that is the case. Seems like there are two possibilities or a combination: (1) that pretty much everyone there who is going to get it has got it and the rate of fatalities is what several studies have shown (according to Jude's information), or (2) that the lockdown has been so efficient that everyone who otherwise would be getting it has been put on hold. In my opinion, the idea that the lockdown has been so completely efficient seems somewhat unlikely,but, on the other hand, I don't know how valid the studies Jude referred to are, either, and perhaps we'll see more deaths in the future in NYC. I suppose we will just have to wait and see. By the way, I don't understand: "The deaths per population, not the deaths per case, is 0.2%."

I started reading the thread in the middle and wasn't aware that it was set up to just report the daily stats in Sonoma County and that chit-chat is forbidden, so, sorry about that.

[rossmen]

You forgot the stat that 20% of the new York city population tests positive for antibodies. The relationship between exposure and antibody testing is unknown. So it is very possible that the majority of new yorkers were exposed and the majority of those exposed didn't get covid because their immune system already knew how to deal with it.

Fatality rate, as I understand it, is how many will die who are exposed to a disease.

HUH???
COVID-19 in New York City...