Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

[rossmen]

Type 0 is even older than Neanderthals, not all of them had it. Carried by other hominid lines too.

More important is what do the numbers mean? And how can they inform public health? Lots of numbers now from all over the world, different countries, cultures, governments and socioeconomic demographics. A clear picture of the inevitable spread of covid 19 is emerging. Washington caught it early and shut down, second wave developing. Cali caught it good and shut down quick, steady rising case numbers, death rate steady, poverty big factor. New York was walloped, developing heard immunity, steady drop in cases and death. Sweden has done a way better job at managing medical resources and rate of spread, lower peak and slower decline, like Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Illinois, Ohio, Rhode island too, (not really, they slowed spread by shutdown). The point is that any area which has had widespread community spread and developed testing capacity can slow the increase in daily cases, but daily death will only decline as heard immunity begins to take effect. Think Belgium.

The country's, the state's, the regions which have practiced successful levels of containment, whether it's south Korea, west county or Hawaii, even new Zealand, are shrinking islands in covid world. Therapeutics will help limit death. And yeah wuhan has heard immunity.

The numbers tell the tale. Communities in the us had about the same rates of death in 1918-19. Sure some were able to delay the reaper...

Our current delay tactics, available to the rich, are predicated on unprecedented vaccine development. This is revealed to be an increasingly bad bet. Fortunately the virus, while highly contagious, especially in close quarters, turns out to be not nearly as virulent as first estimated.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 17

29 New Cases in Sonoma County. 1 was a West County Resident.

Sonoma County is doing well in terms of deaths. Marin has fewer cases and 4 times as many deaths. Napa has one quarter the number of cases and the same number of deaths.

California records it's highest number of cases

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[gypsey]

Interesting. What I read to day was that this modest advantage is not statistically significant in terms of infections and recovery right now, but these genetic findings can play a role in developing treatments.

Turns out there is a modest advantage to having type O blood....

[rossmen]

In comparing the curves for daily new cases and daily death I've come to appreciate another grim statistic, death per million. In places where these two curves match and show a rapid rise to a peak and then a much slower continuous fall, indicating developing heard immunity, the death per million is high.

New York is highest about 1600. New York also has the sharpest rise and fastest fall. In country's where the infection rate was slowed after the virus was established with good health care that was never overwhelmed, like Ireland, it can be as low as 350 and the rate of rise and fall are slower.

California is currently 136. Soco 9. Our state has steady increase of new cases and daily death is steady.

Florida curves look like a second wave, 146.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 18

19 New Cases. None were in West County.

Here are the links for some other CA counties dashboards. We have a less than 1% death rate. Other counties are not so lucky with 6 to over 7% death rate.

http://www.icphd.org/health-informat...acts/covid-19/

https://kernpublichealth.com/covid-19_dashboard/

https://www.yolocounty.org/health-hu...-and-documents

https://mercedcounty.maps.arcgis.com...a37b5c89f40802

https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/hea...y-summary.aspx


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June 19

13 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County residents.

2 percent of tests taken are positive. This is a low number. Our hospitalization rate is 6% of positives. Also a low number. This indicates to me our Health Department is dong a good job of tracking down cases. In many areas Health Officials receive death threats and some have had armed fools show up at their homes. Many have resigned. They didn't sign up for being terrorized for trying to save the lives of the public.

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/artic...s-15343863.php

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[Goat Rock Ukulele]

Sonoma County didn't update last night so no new numbers.

If you are using an N95 mask they want you to use the non vented type. The vented type does not do a good job of protecting others from you. I suppose you could hot-glue the vent closed to convert a vented to non vented.

SF Chronicle: Face mask rules for the Bay Area: Why you need to wear one

[wisewomn]

Or put duct tape over the vent, inside or outside.

I suppose you could hot-glue the vent closed to convert a vented to non vented. ...

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

Non vented N95 masks are now readily available on ebay for a few bucks per in boxes of 10.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 21

32 New Cases. None were in West County Residents.

If you have the time it's worth listening to the part of this press conference given by California HHS Secretary Dr. Ghaly.
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June 22

50 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County Residents.

This is the largest single day case number to date by far.
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June 23

21 New Cases last night reported in Sonoma County. None were in West County.

California Cases are rising rapidly
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June 24

18 New Cases reported last night. None were West County Residents.

Sonoma County ICU beds available at new low of 7

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[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 25

32 New Cases in Sonoma County last night. None were West County Residents.

We crossed the 1,000 total cases in Sonoma County last night (this includes active and no longer active). If we are to accept CDC estimates that would mean 10,000 people have had the virus in Sonoma County. California death rate is just under 3% of diagnosed cases. At less than one half a percent we are doing great in that regard. Several states are in real trouble. Seems like we are teetering. I suspect the next 30 days will tell the tale.

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[gaiasophia]

I spoke with a friend yesterday, who's seriously researching/fact checking etc...

and she was saying the most cases are in Santa Rosa...

Thank you for your research...

June 25

32 New Cases in Sonoma County last night. None were West County Residents....

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 27

49 New Cases reported in Sonoma County. 3 were West County Residents.

They did not post numbers on Friday night so this may represent two days. Still, numbers are going up. County Health Officials expect case numbers to double from here to the end of July.

If we are to take CDC estimates that for every case detected there are 9 more who have been infected and did not present at a testing site or hospital that would mean by the end of July there will be 20,000 in Sonoma County who have encountered the virus. That is 4 percent of the population of Sonoma County. That is a number that will provide almost no herd immunity if indeed having antibodies provides immunity.

We can handle this virus if we do the right things. Rhode Island is handling it well.
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[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 28

26 New Cases in Sonoma County. 1 was a West County Resident.

Over 1,000 positive at San Quentin Prison.
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[rossmen]

Rhode island has a fatality rate of .09%. This is enough to indicate substantial developing herd immunity. Fifth highest state in this nation. Political leadership is highly overrated. The data tracks the truth. Washington state and ours did everything right according to propedemioligists. Public health officers love to cite herd immunity when promoting vaccines. Yet in this time of an historic novel virus their lips are sealed. Right now the truth is a battle between data and science. The data is now, and has many flaws. The science is just developing, and most of it has already been proven wrong.

...We can handle this virus if we do the right things. Rhode Island is handling it well.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 29

18 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County.
West County percentage of infections has dropped from 4% to 3% with a total of 34 cases

Sadly we lost 2 Sonoma County Residents to the virus.

Link for Hospitalization information
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[ecojaf]

CNN: He was an athlete in the best shape of his life. Then Covid-19 nearly killed him

To me the real interesting thing in this article is a one sentence throwaway mention that this guy tested positive for both covid and influenza (got sick at tail end of last flu season), without at all focusing on whether it was significant to his disease progression and whether we should be thinking about where we need to be with the disease in a couple months entering flu season. Article simply focuses on his ordeal with covid.

My Diatribe on the issue (I recommend NOT reading; I'm just venting for here down):

Most Americans (including the people in the media and in charge) lack any ability to think beyond what is immediately in front of them; we make all these proclamations with certainty from limited data sets and without any effort at critical thinking.

A few months ago the hope was that the more favorable conditions of summer would be our saving grace, and now that the pandemic is just continuing to spread ferociously here, everybody just ignores that we possibly are in a more favorable time of year (meaning that if we hadn't entered this more favorable seasonal time of the year the wildfire would be an uncontrolled inferno). There is still the possibility that fall/winter (cold, flu, pneumonia, respiratory illness season) will be far worse, including because there is the possibility that having covid at the same time as flu will counteract our success (luck or seasonal benefits) in driving down the death rate, even as the number of cases dramatically increase.

We have moved into a season that many hoped would be more favorable for us against the virus and we should consider that still might be the case; that that might be the reason for low death rate (relative to rising case numbers). I have never worried about catching the flu; I have never gotten a flu vaccine: I'm 52 and haven't gone to a doctor for an illness (even when sick) since I was taken by my mommy as child but I'm strictly isolating (relying on myself to just avoid people rather than rely on others to be responsible towards me) and intend to be absurdly paranoid about doing so during this cold/flu season (even more so if there is wildfire pollution in the air). Of course, I may be completely wrong; we have no data about what will happen with covid during a flu season; all I can do is speculate.

But I thought we were screwed a month ago when everybody (including our more "enlightened" and pro-science rhetoric leaders) thought "flattening the curve" (on a virus that started in a small cluster in central China and spread around the world in a couple months and now was prevalent throughout the globe) was somehow at all sufficient. Somebody throws a catch phrase like "flattening the curve" around and everybody picks it up as if a bumper sticker phrase can encapsulate sound public policy. Flattening the curve was an emergency first step, that should have been following by driving the curve down (as many Europeans and Asians understood) and followed by numerous further steps, all of which should have preceded "getting back to normal".

As far as I'm concerned, every single state and federal leader (republican and democrat) has failed us because the only rational thing that could have been done was to provide Universal Basic Income to all to stay isolated in small clusters through this flu season, enact Medicare for All, and inject massive funding into science and health infrastructure (while letting corporations fend for themselves and allow a necessary transition to our next economy take place). And while this might seem like Monday morning quarter-backing, it really is not, because the next round of lockdowns is quite possibly coming this flu season and rather than fight each other in our mask/no mask (freedom; civic duty) culture war, we should fight for UBI and functioning government (with 9 billion people, living with disfunctional governments and rampant abject poverty, on a relatively small planet we've actually been really lucky at how few pandemics we've had in our recent history).

[podfish]

...As far as I'm concerned, every single state and federal leader (republican and democrat) has failed us because the only rational thing that could have been done was to provide Universal Basic Income to all to stay isolated in small clusters through this flu season, enact Medicare for All, and inject massive funding into science and health infrastructure (while letting corporations fend for themselves and allow a necessary transition to our next economy take place). ...

spot on. But as you say, it's a rant for its own sake, because, America. People would rather fight over masks and get involved in other squirrel-chasing activities. Going for UBI is still a reach. But it's far, far more possible than it would have ever before. We may get there yet. It's been easy to make a pessimistic case about how this will all play out, but at least there are a few elements that can go into an optimistic one for a change.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

June 30

49 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were West County Residents.

Hispanic percentage has gone down from 77% to 70%

ICU Beds Available are 10. Sonoma County Hospital Data here
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[occihoff]

Yeah, the going back to normal trend when the infection numbers were still so high seemed crazy to me at the time. And now it's turned out that it was crazy! How could our leaders have failed to realize this?

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

July 1

44 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were West County Residents.

2 More Sonoma County Residents lost their lives to the virus.

ICU available Beds are 11

Parking areas at State Beaches will be blocked off Friday. County Beaches will remain open. That should create a mess. Lynda Hopkins doesn't like it. We locals may want to steer clear of our local beaches this weekend.
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[Goat Rock Ukulele]

July 2

38 New Cases reported in Sonoma County, 1 was a West County Resident.

Sadly 1 more Sonoma County resident lost their life to the virus.
Two people under 65 have died in Sonoma County to date.

10 available ICU Beds. So far our hospitals have not been flooded.
Hospitalization data here

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[rossmen]

Soco numbers are going to go up. Community spread is out of control, local, county, state, nation, world. The most important number is death per million. In soco it's 6. This indicates we have no herd immunity. Yes we have dodged the bullet, and the machine gun is still firing and has unlimited amo.

Yeah for us for having really good bunkers.

In la county death per million is similar to ny and jersy, 1600-1800. What does this mean? Since the center of our state's virus outbreak, still, has well developed herd immunity, Cali daily deaths will continue to trend down. Slowly since the whole state death per million is 160.

Florida and tehas are interesting comparisons. Both have second wave numbers like Cali for daily cases. And unlike our state, daily death is also rising again. Florida death per million is over 200, tehas under 50. Their curves will diverge.

Latin America covid numbers seem to be stabilizing, and yes death per million is getting into the over 300 range. Unlike Africa, near and mideast, India. Where death per million is low.

It's a human paradox, we need community, and community kills. What does the percentage of testing positive mean? Since testing is changing so rapidly it's anybody's guess. Now that we're testing more including prisoners, homeless, undocumented and the % of positive tests has risen to as much as 30% in certain counties, we know we are together, hiding only works so long.

[Finell]

Thank you, again, for continuing to follow, analyze, and report the daily figures for our county.
You are performing a valuable service for our community.

[Finell]

Soco numbers are going to go up. Community spread is out of control, local, county, state, nation, world. The most important number is death per million. In soco it's 6. This indicates we have no herd immunity.

Of course we don't have herd immunity. No human population has herd immunity from COVID-19.

What are you talking about? We are nowhere near herd immunity. How could we be?

In simple terms, herd immunity can occur in a defined population when most people are immune to a pathogen. When the percentage of immune individuals is large enough—way more than 50%—two interrelated phenomena can prevent the pathogen from spreading to most of the remaining non-immune sub-population.

1. There are not enough non-immune hosts to enable the pathogen to adequately reproduce. Therefore, the pathogen dies out and disappears from the population—unless an infected carrier from outside the population re-introduces the pathogen.
   
2. There are not enough non-immune potential victims to become infected.

These are really two sides of the same coin. It is a matter of probabilities. When the number of pathogens is small enough and the number of non-immune potential victims is small enough, the disease cycle cannot sustain itself. Perhaps a stray pathogen will occasionally infect an unfortunate non-immune individual, but the disease will no longer be a public health problem in the population.

The following graphic, published by the American Academy of Pediatrics, illustrates the concept:


Source of the graphic: https://services.aap.org/en/news-roo...-takes-a-herd/

Soco numbers are going to go up. Community spread is out of control, local, county, state, nation, world. The most important number is death per million. In soco it's 6. This indicates we have no herd immunity.

[Finell]

Rhode island has a fatality rate of .09%. This is enough to indicate substantial developing herd immunity.

No, this has nothing to do with herd immunity. There was no opportunity for RI to acquire herd immunity. "Immunity," herd or otherwise, means that individuals have an immune response to a pathogen, and therefore the individual does not become sick or infected by that pathogen. It has nothing to do with the course of the disease in someone who is sick. I discussed this an another post in this thread today.

[Finell]

The term "herd immunity" keeps appearing here in discussions of the pandemic. Some of these uses do not conform to standard definitions of the term. Since so much here on WaccoBB devolves into partisan ideological arguments, I decided to research the meaning of "herd immunity" in standard reference sources, with no connection to the COVID-19 pandemic. I found the following definitions:

"the immunity of a group, community, or population to an infectious disease as a result of mass vaccination. The higher the percentage of the population vaccinated, the greater will be the resistance to the spread of infection within the population." Oxford Reference, Oxford University Press, at https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803095932166

"The resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination."
Oxford English Dictionary, at https://www.lexico.com/en/definition/herd_immunity

"a situation in which a disease cannot spread through a group of people because enough of them are immune (= unable to get a disease), usually because of having been vaccinated (= given an injection)"
Cambridge English Dictionary, at https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/herd-immunity

"the immunity or resistance to a particular infection that occurs in a group of people or animals when a very high percentage of individuals have been vaccinated or previously exposed to the infection."
Random House Unabridged Dictionary, at https://www.dictionary.com/browse/herd-immunity

"Resistance to the spread of infectious disease in a group because susceptible members are few, making transmission from an infected member unlikely.
"The immunologic status of a population, determined by the ratio of resistant to susceptible members and their distribution."
Stedman's Medical Dictionary, at https://www.dictionary.com/browse/herd-immunity

"Herd immunity (or community immunity) occurs when a high percentage of the community is immune to a disease (through vaccination and/or prior illness), making the spread of this disease from person to person unlikely. Even individuals not vaccinated (such as newborns and the immunocompromised) are offered some protection because the disease has little opportunity to spread within the community." Infection Prevention and You, Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, at
https://apic.org/Resource_/TinyMceFi...d_immunity.pdf. (I just noticed that this one item was published in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic.)

"a reduction in the risk of infection with a specific communicable disease (such as measles or influenza) that occurs when a significant proportion of the population has become immune to infection (as because of previous exposure or vaccination) so that susceptible individuals are much less likely to come in contact with infected individuals" Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary, at https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/herd%20immunity

The most important number is death per million. In soco it's 6. This indicates we have no herd immunity.