Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

April 30

13 New cases tonight. Pretty hight number as compared to the last 3 or 4 days. For the first time we do have more recovered than active. This says 29th but I think they forgot to change the date.


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[Goat Rock Ukulele]

From the PD about a week ago

County emergency management staff recently took a poll of current hospital capacity and found there are 689 inpatient beds, 76 of which would be for intensive-care patients. The county’s six acute-care hospitals recently reported they could add 227 hospital beds, including 64 more beds for the sickest patients needing intensive care, 115 moderate-care beds and 58 for isolated patients.

Any idea what the number of ICU beds in Sonoma Co is?

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

May 1

4 New Cases

Tests seem to be going up.


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[Finell]

As we look at the daily changes in the total number of cases, active cases, and recoveries—and I confess that I keep the Sonoma County "dashboard" open all day and look at each day's numbers every evening—we should reflect how fortunate we are to be here rather than some other place where the numbers are much worse. No doubt enforced physical separation of individuals has saved many of us from contracting COVID-19. In addition, our county's low population density has reduced the number of cases here.

[rossmen]

Why inspire a really conservative local health officer? I don't get it .

Agreed about Dr Mase...she has done a wonderful job and I am thankful. I really hope people can recognize this and think collectively and with gratitude instead of go into an individualistic complaining mode!

[rossmen]

Don't be so afraid. We're all going to get it, and die or not. As you know a vaccine is at least a year away. Why are you afraid to die?

...we should reflect how fortunate we are to be here rather than some other place where the numbers are much worse. ...

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

April 2

4 New Cases this Saturday. Posting late because the site was down last night.

Dramatic uptick in testing. This is good news. More testing and having contact tracing up to speed can only be good. There is an uptrend in Sant Clara, Alameda and San Mateo. Many states are opening up but only one state has met the White House guidelines, New York. The Administration is at the same time urging states to open while having guidelines that say they should not. Seems like a way to duck responsibility if it goes bad.


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[donnatova]

As we look at the daily changes in the total number of cases, active cases, and recoveries—and I confess that I keep the Sonoma County "dashboard" open all day and look at each day's numbers every evening—we should reflect how fortunate we are to be here rather than some other place where the numbers are much worse. No doubt enforced physical separation of individuals has saved many of us from contracting COVID-19. In addition, our county's low population density has reduced the number of cases here.

I've also been tracking our progress in Sonoma County. For personal reasons I've also been tracking the progress in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, which has more or less the same population, as well as the same geographic split between rural, suburban and urban residents.

To date, Sonoma County has approximately 250 total cases to Lancaster County's 2000. We have 2 deaths, they have over 130.

One of the only real difference that I can see is the amazing leadership we have here in Sonoma, which includes Dr. Maze and the outstanding staff at Sonoma County Public Health, our local community clinic leadership, the leaders and staff from the Redwood Community Health Coalition (which is our North Bay community clinic consortium), and our local population which has taken this all very seriously and tried our best to do what was asked of us for the common good.

Together this leadership team has put out a very clear plan with excellent messaging, and our Sonoma County residents have really taken heed. As a result, any without any doubt to those who have been following our progress, dozens of lives have been saved, and our hospitals have not been overwhelmed, which means we have the capacity to take care of all those who are ill from COVID-19, while still being able to provide care to all the other patients who need hospitalization. These folks haven't suddenly disappeared during this crisis, and our ability to be here for them is also quite noteworthy.

These accomplishment are something we should all be very proud of.

Now we just need to keep it up! Our local heathcare leadership is on our side. They are not some outsiders trying to impose something on us. They are our neighbors, our friends. They want us to be healthy, and they understand its not easy. Following their lead, hopefully we won't need to repeat these difficult measures a second time, and we can join together again soon. In the meantime, may we keep up the great work

[Tofu Larry]

Because being conservative has save many lives.

Why inspire a really conservative local health officer? I don't get it .

[wildinspired]

Really appreciate your comparison and conclusion here! I so often hear folks wonder why we are continuing to have such strict shelter in place orders since we are doing so well! Obvious to me this is WHY we are doing so well! Feeling gratitude. :-)

I've also been tracking our progress in Sonoma County. For personal reasons I've also been tracking the progress in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, which has more or less the same population, as well as the same geographic split between rural, ...

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

May 3

5 New Cases
1 Additional Death

They will be ramping testing to 600 to 800 per day and expanding the parameters to anyone who feels they need to be tested. https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/1...rd-coronavirus
The LA Times has very in-depth charts and graphs. https://www.latimes.com/projects/cal...king-outbreak/




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[Finell]

Are you serious about that, Rossmen? Or is that your way of expressing disgust and frustration with the situation? If it is the latter, I sympathize with you. It has been hard on all of us, one way or another.

If you really are predicting that everyone (in Sonoma County? the US? the world?) will get COVID-19, please explain your reasoning, extrapolating from the current case figures.

This pandemic started overseas. Other countries were hit before the US. Nowhere has there been anything close to infection of the entire population.

The pandemic has been bad enough as it is, without exaggeration. The situation is under better control now than it was when the first cases were reported here. It does not help anyone to instill unreasonable fear, especially in those who are most susceptible to anxiety or depression.

Don't be so afraid. We're all going to get it, and die or not. As you know a vaccine is at least a year away. Why are you afraid to die?

[luke32]

Don't pay any attention to Rossman. This is a good, very helpful thread and we don't need to gum it up with nonsense.

Are you serious about that, Rossmen?...

[wisewomn]

Yes, indeed,Luke. Now would be a good time to put Rossmen on our "Ignore" lists. Go to your profile to do it.

Don't pay any attention to Rossman. This is a good, very helpful thread and we don't need to gum it up with nonsense.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

May 4

4 New Cases Tonight

It seems odd the way the cases trickle in. Like a smoldering fire you can't quite put out.
I suppose that will change when testing ramps to 600. to 800 per day and the economy is opened up.



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[rossmen]

Actually I am serious about both. To live life unafraid to die is a consistent goal of mine. And to accept the epigenetic reality that covid will never be contained, only inconsistently mitigated, is real. So yeah, I'm going to get it, probably before there's a vaccine, if evah, which most likely will be more dangerous and less effective immunity wise than getting it. Don't think I have yet. And yes I might die.

Are you serious about that, Rossmen? Or is that your way of expressing disgust and frustration with the situation? If it is the latter, I sympathize with you. It has been hard on all of us, one way or another.

If you really are predicting that everyone (in Sonoma County? the US? the world?) will get COVID-19, please explain your reasoning, extrapolating from the current case figures....

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

May 5

11 New Cases

They were late on posting but holy cow look at the testing numbers, pretty close to 10X. I expect they are getting all kinds of people who don't need tests trying to get tested. Less than a 1% positive rate seems pretty good.


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[Barry]

Is there any data on the percentage of tested-positive but asymptomatic people who go on to show symptoms vs those that remain asymptomatic?

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

May 6

14 New cases were reported last night.

Wonder why so few tests after the 1800 the day before.

I expect we will get even better news about the effectiveness of Remdesivir when they read out the data on less critically ill patients who were given the drug. Antivirals seem to work much better if taken early in the course of a disease. The problem is the supply is very limited and the Trump Administration is in charge of who gets it. This could be a horrible problem. Newsom should send State Troopers to Gilead in Foster City and secure a fair supply for California Hospitals.


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[Goat Rock Ukulele]

May 7

6 new cases last night.

The County has opened up ocean access to fishermen. You are supposed to go out alone or with a member of your direct household. They are opening Westside but not Doran so it will be a circus out there with only one launch. They should have opened Doran for boat launch only as well.



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[Goat Rock Ukulele]

May 8

8 New cases reported last night.


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[Goat Rock Ukulele]

. Most counties cases are steady, some are going down a few are rising. Sonoma County shows a slight uptrend.

[wildinspired]

Thanks so very much Goat Rock Ukelele for sharing these graphs and keeping us informed in this very clear way. I am sending you many appreciations...your sharing is helping me keep myself positioned, in a fluid kind of way, based in what's actually happening, in how I am choosing o engage or not. Thank you, thank you...!!

. Most counties cases are steady, some are going down a few are rising. Sonoma County shows a slight uptrend.

[Barry]

Since the number of new cases is so dependent on the amount of testing, I'd be interested in the trend of the percentage of positive tests of the new tests.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

May 9

9 New Cases last night


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[Goat Rock Ukulele]

That would be good to know. It's hard to figure from day to day because we don't know when tests taken relate to cases reported. The county may be using the Abbot Labs 15 minute test or they may be sending the tests out which in some cases has taken a week, or they may now be using a Sonoma County lab or a combination.

As of last nights posted numbers the number of positives to tests taken is around 3.25% That is for the entire pandemic to date. In the last week that percentage has gone lower to 1.85%

That does not mean the the virus is declining in the county. It might mean they are testing a lot of first responders, nursing homes, who have no symptoms. I'm always afraid people are going to look at these numbers and think they represent the number of actual cases in the county. There are likely10 or more times as many people in the county who have the virus with mild or no symptoms.

Since the number of new cases is so dependent on the amount of testing, I'd be interested in the trend of the percentage of positive tests of the new tests.

[american dream]

Since the number of new cases is so dependent on the amount of testing, I'd be interested in the trend of the percentage of positive tests of the new tests.

Agreed!

[barfly]

Except the percentage of positive results is going to be grossly skewed by who gets tested. As tests are more available and the requirement for serious symptoms to be teated goes away, the % positives should go way down. It’s not clear to me that that is meaningful.

Since the number of new cases is so dependent on the amount of testing, I'd be interested in the trend of the percentage of positive tests of the new tests.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

May 10

0 New cases detected today.

The State of California is training up an army of contact tracers. https://www.ocregister.com/2020/05/0...in-california/


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[Goat Rock Ukulele]

May 11

3 New Cases tonight. Sadly we lost another Sonoma County resident to the virus.



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