Obama or McCain – it doesn’t matter from the Asian perspective
Published: 30 October 2008 16:27 | Changed: 30 October 2008 16:31
By Ben Knapen

Does it matter who wins the presidential election in the US? Not much, from the Asian perspective. China and India are happy with George W. Bush’s eight years in power. Unlike his predecessor Bill Clinton, Bush made a reasonable effort to oppose protectionism and kept relationships businesslike. He made India more or less an American ally via a nuclear treaty and as such made it a counter weight to the rising power of China.

Bush has given up his mission for democracy and capitalism as far as China is concerned. So China too is happy with this Republican president. In fact Chinese Communist party leaders have had a slight preference for Republicans in the White House since president Richard Nixon, believing they are more predictable when it comes to international power politics than the Democrats.

But there is one thing the Chinese probably will not get any more from the next US president: its wonderfully sheltered position.

Thanks to Bush’s war against terrorism, the failure in Iraq, the futile polarisation against Iran, the animosity with Russia and the paralysis in the Palestine-Israeli conflict, all the attention, emotion and anger in the world remains targeted at a constantly preaching president and a constantly preaching America.

Key positions

Meanwhile China built up key positions in Africa and made contracts with countries in the region from Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, to Indonesia and Burma. It was able to quietly carry on doing whatever it wanted.

There were no discussions about the advantages and disadvantages, about conditions and perspectives – the West was too busy.

China will probably lose this wonderful position of giant-in-the-shadows – whoever becomes the next US president. But America can financially no longer allow itself so many enemies. A new president will not be able to follow an ideologically-driven policy. Neo-conservatism is burnt out and even the Republican John McCain is too much of a man in his own right to be bothered by it.

But for the Europeans there’s more going on. European countries are much more intensely involved in most conflicts. Radical Islam, Iran, Afghanistan, Russia – they’re all Western problems, which means that they’re European problems too.

Bigger talent

Up to now the Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has shown a somewhat bigger talent than his opponent when it comes to conciliation. It is perhaps more a matter of instinct than talent but it is something that has been visible during his whole life. His left-wing Liberal ideology comes second to this instinct and in this way he can easily make a plea for free possession of guns, telephone taps and the death penalty.

In his autobiographies, Obama seems to be a follower of the – somewhat vague – theologian Rhienhold Niebuhr and his theory of modesty: “Man forgets that he is not only a creator but also a creation”. This concept makes you more of an analyst than a preacher.

And Obama’s unusual background also makes him more at home with the big wide world. His schooldays in a Muslim primary school in Jakarta means the sight of kneeling Muslims in a big mosque is just that, a mosque with kneeling Muslims. And nothing more sinister.

Scarce qualities

Conciliation and the ability to add water to the wine were scarce qualities in the last few years. But the need for them now is urgent.

Does the Republican McCain have these capabilities? Who knows? The Republican Nixon was a rogue in terms of internal US politics but he brought back the American soldiers from a hopeless mission in Vietnam. The Democrat Jimmy Carter was an amiable conciliator but as president he was a medium-sized disaster on the international stage.

However – MCain is not as young as he was and his state of health is far from perfect. And with his choice of Sarah Palin as running mate he has crossed the border from opportunism to cynicism.

She is, in terms of her experience and world view, an irresponsible gamble. It is a comforting thought that the majority of Americans now share that view.