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From:
https://www.coastalpost.com/08/10/23.html
Rail Measure Off-Track
By Louis Nuyens
Following the loss of a similar measure in 2006, Marin and Sonoma voters are again being asked to vote for a sales tax increase to fund "SMART."
"SMART," the Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit system, would be a single-track commute rail system operating between Cloverdale and Larkspur.
According to project backers, SMART would cut greenhouse gasses and provide convenient, cost-effective transit around the North Bay.
Critics of the project challenge those assumptions, and point to enormous costs for a system whose maximum ridership would be severely limited by its design, and a host of other problems.
The overall cost of the system is estimated between $1.3 Billion and $1.6 Billion. $1.33B is the most recently released estimate, but SMART's estimates have fluctuated significantly. The project would primarily be funded by a 20-year Marin-Sonoma sales tax increase of 0.25%.
While the sales tax increase would begin in 2009, the SMART system would not start carrying passengers for 6 years - only 14 years of service would be provided of the 20 years of taxation.
The commute rail system would stop at 14 stations (9 in Sonoma County and 5 in Marin County) spanning between Cloverdale and Larkspur. The single-track system would require numerous pull-outs ("sidings") to allow trains (passenger and freight) going in opposite directions to pass each other. SMART is not an elevated system - it has over 100 at-grade crossings. The at-grade crossings would impact local auto traffic and typically necessitate 70db loud horns whenever a train passes through an intersection. In addition to intermittent commute rail service, freight trains of up to 60 cars in length would share the track with commute trains, at least as far south as Novato. Because of the single track system and SMART train scheduling, it is highly likely that freight trains would run throughout the night, as well.
SMART would not connect to BART, the SF Ferry, or any other regional transit system aside from Golden Gate Transit (GGT) bus service, nor will it go to San Francisco; and these are not practicable in the foreseeable future. Although the south-most station is in Larkspur, SMART would stop approximately 4 blocks from the ferry. Placement of the Larkspur station would eliminate the main parking lot for Marin Airporter bus service, possibly leading to closure of that business.
SMART ridership numbers by the end of 20 years of service are estimated to be 2,500-3,000. Compared to the total cost of SMART, that is approximately a half-million dollars per "round-trip slot" (for those 14 years when SMART is operating). Although SMART is scheduled to mainly serve south-going commuters, SMART's ridership studies show that only 230 riders are expected to make peak-period commutes from Sonoma to Marin each day. Only approximately 30-40 riders, from all locations, are expected to transfer to the ferry each day.
Because its ridership is so small and dispersed, SMART's estimates reveal that SMART would not provide measurable traffic relief on Hwy 101. Moreover, some of SMART's planned funding comes with 'strings' that mandate substantial increases to development within a half-mile of each station, making far worse congestion a virtual certainty. At present, about 17,500 units exist within a half-mile of the proposed station sites - the mandates ask for zoning increases up to 30,800 units in those areas. Since most of the stations are near Hwy 101, the additional units and increases density would make very large increases in traffic congestion extremely probable. If built out, the additional units would add over 100,000 trips per day (using the typical average of about 10 auto trips per unit per day), tens of thousands more than are possible under existing zoning; yet SMART carries only 2500-3000 round-trips per day.
SMART proponents claim that SMART would create a 0.2-1.0% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions versus the auto trips SMART would replace, and claim that this would add up to about 31 million pounds of carbon emissions per year. However, those estimates do not seem to take into account that some of SMART's riders would be taken from GGT bus lines, some of which would be discontinued; nor does it seem to take into account the many bus and auto trips needed to deliver SMART riders to and from stations. More compellingly, the many thousands of extra units mandated by some of SMART's funding would very likely spell far, far greater increases in greenhouse gas emissions than the emissions SMART claims to save. Therefore the very likely net result of SMART would be sizable increases in Marin-Sonoma greenhouse gas emissions.
With SMART's total cost averaging over $100 per round trip (over $50 per one-way trip), and an average trip distance estimated at about 13 miles, critics of SMART have pointed to alternatives. A former GGT planner has penciled calculations estimating that bus system enhancements could provide comparable, even superior, service for a fraction of the cost of SMART. Bus system enhancements that double SMART's scheduled frequency and go closer to the origins and destinations for most people might be accomplished for $200-$250 million. In other words, SMART would cost 4-5 times than the cost for bus to provide comparable, and in some ways superior, services. In addition, SMART's functionality is limited and SMART's ridership is severely capped by physical and operational parameters - no matter how much the population increases, SMART's ridership cannot increase appreciably. Meanwhile, bus services are flexible and expandable, and much less likely to come with SMART's growth-inducing strings attached.
Another benefit claimed by SMART supporters is that SMART has plans to put a bicycle-pedestrian path adjacent to the rail line, a colorful selling-point that has made avid supporters of many bicyclists. The cost of the path would be $90M-$135M of the SMART's total. Environmentalists have observed that the path would double the project's "foot-print" through sensitive habitat, which, they say, would already be seriously degraded by resumption of rail operations and preparatory construction activities.
But recent letters by the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) and Northwest Pacific (NWP) may mean that the path will never be built, particularly where it is most desired, such as along the "Novato Narrows." PUC and NWP comments indicate that the path cannot be constructed within SMART's easement without interfering with freight operations. The letters outline safety issues, inadequate setback from tracks, regulatory limitations and potential for a second track.
Other public concerns regarding SMART range from worries about property values - which typically decline sharply near active rail systems - to the struggling economy. Critics also assert that SMART cannot be considered a viable "alternative" system. SMART shares so many intersections with auto traffic that they would affect each other, critics say. Moreover, in an emergency, such as a flood or earthquake, SMART operations would immediately be shut down, and could take days to resume.
Measure Q, the SMART ballot measure in Marin and Sonoma, is already competing for general funding sources against interests such as fire protection and open space. Ballot measures for other needs around the North Bay have recently been set aside by local politicians and elected officials to make Measure Q more likely to pass in November.
On November 4th, 2008 - and earlier, for those who vote by mail - voters will have to ask whether it is cost-effective to commit a half-million dollars to supply one round-trip on a commute train for 14 years, and then to do that 3,000 times; or whether SMART's cost and congestion-inducing side-effects make SMART an idea that is off-track.
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To volunteer to defeat SMART, see
https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?t=42892