Ike poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time

[Zeno Swijtink]

Another Katrina in the making??

Ike on Cuba: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03JU_ScZJtg

*****
September 13, 2008

Hurricane Ike Bears Down on Texas Coastline
By JAMES C. McKINLEY Jr.

HOUSTON — Hurricane Ike churned through the Gulf of Mexico on Friday on a collision course with Texas, pushing ahead of it a wall of water that caused floods all along the coast, shut down oil refineries, endangered a freighter at sea and destroyed a pier in Galveston.

Officials said the initial flooding was only a preview of worse things to come, and one hurricane expert, Dr. Jeff Masters, warned that the storm “stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time” because of its vast size.

Dr. Masters, who runs the Weather Underground Web site, said the hurricane could end up being much larger and more powerful than Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005.

The storm was forecast to make landfall early Saturday morning just southwest of Galveston and to push a storm surge of 15 to 20 feet over the island’s seawall, up into Galveston Bay and up the Houston Ship Channel, a nightmare scenario for the nation’s fourth-largest metropolis and its oil industry.

President Bush, speaking in Oklahoma City, said he was “deeply concerned” about the hurricane. “The federal government will not only help with the prestorm strategy, but once this storm passes we’ll be working with state and local authorities to help people recover as quickly as possible,” he said.

The winds at the center of the hurricane were on the low end for such a storm — about 105 miles per hour — but the storm measured more than 500 miles across and was causing 50-foot waves as it swept over shallow Gulf waters.

Federal forecasters said the storm’s size meant it would produce high storm surges all along the coast in western Louisiana and eastern Texas, as well as dumping 5 to 10 inches of rain. The rising tide would be especially dangerous in Galveston and in communities on the bay just south of Houston; people in one- and two-story homes in coastal floodplains could be swept away.

“It’s not a good scenario for Houston and Galveston,” said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center. “You are in high danger of those buildings being knocked down and if you are in one you will go with it.”

Still, officials in Houston urged residents on higher ground to remain in their homes rather than evacuate.

The decision to encourage people on relatively high ground to stay put was a calculated risk. Local officials hope to avoid the chaos that happened after residents were ordered to evacuate Houston when Hurricane Rita threatened the city in 2005. That evacuation clogged the highways and was blamed for 110 deaths, more than the storm itself.

Mayor Bill White of Houston said that about a quarter million people in the Houston area had heeded the call to evacuate lower-lying areas, though only 300 were taken out on government buses, the majority making their way in their own cars. Galveston officials said abut 60 percent of the island’s 57,000 residents appeared to have left.

But many of the island’s residents took a cavalier approach to the storm. Surfers and storm watchers were on the beach Friday morning. One man, Robert Shumake, carried a flag along the shore to commemorate the victims of 9/11, a ritual he does every morning.

“I say bring it on, Ike,” said Mr. Shumake, 53, as a wave broke just feet behind him. “You can’t touch this flag right here.”

Behind him was a statue commemorating the “Disaster of 1900,” a hurricane that a plaque on the monument called the worst natural disaster in American history, with more than 6,000 people killed. After that storm the protective sea wall was built in Galveston, and when a comparable storm hit the city in 1915, less than a dozen people died.

Another man, Rodney Whitaker, who lives in Webster, a Houston suburb, said he drove to Galveston on Friday morning to take photographs of the approaching storm to show to his family and future generations.

“I’m just having some fun and enjoying the wind,” said Mr. Whitaker, 43, a sales manager for a car dealership. “I may never get an opportunity to see this again.”

But Mr. Whitaker was already worried about his returning to Webster because of the flooding.

“It’s kind of scary and you start to wonder, can I get out?” Mr. Whitaker said.

Around noon, however, water topped the 17-foot-high sea wall and began flooding some parts of the downtown and its west end, alarming local officials. The city’s airport flooded and sewers were backing up. Portions of a fishing pier on 61st Street collapsed because of the waves and rising water.

The Coast Guard reported that the situation at sea had become so dangerous that they could not evacuate 36 men adrift on a 584-foot freighter, the Antalina, registered out of Cyprus, which was about 90 miles off the coast of Galveston. The ship was in the direct path of Hurricane Ike. The crew will have to tough it out until after the storm, the Coast Guard said.

Mayor White said that the city expected that people would be stranded by floods and that the police and fire departments were gearing up to begin rescues as soon as day broke on Saturday.

The federal government has moved about 3,500 rescue workers into place just outside the storm’s expected path, along with 2.4 million liters of water, 2 million military meals and 203 generators to power hospitals and other critical government buildings, said Debbie Wing, a spokeswoman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Throughout the morning, Mr. White and the Harris County judge, Ed Emmet, encouraged people to leave low-lying areas.

“Our biggest concern is getting every human being out of the storm surge area,” Mr. Emmet said. “Then we will get people indoors and off the highway when the heavy winds come.”

The effects of the storm were being felt as far away as New Orleans, where winds from the hurricane’s outer bands gusted Friday morning at over 50 m.p.h. The storm surge forced the closure of floodgates on drainage canals in the city, and coastal communities at its suburban edge were ordered to evacuate.

Most schools in New Orleans were closed for the day as bursts of torrential rain fell; tree limbs, weakened by last week’s Hurricane Gustav, flew through the air, adding to giant piles of debris still uncollected from the previous storm.

In southwestern Louisiana, closer to the hurricane’s projected landfall, a state of emergency was declared in four coastal parishes. About 900 people evacuated to the north, and the mayor of the principal city, Lake Charles, urged residents to flee low-lying areas as the storm surge caused water to cover a stretch of Interstate 10.

The cities of Port Arthur and Beaumont in east Texas were also evacuated, and the three major refineries there were shut down, officials said. The sea was expected to surge 20 feet above high tide and to flood Port Arthur and other communities in Jefferson County.

“The county is pretty much a ghost town,” said United States Representative Ted Poe, a Republican, who represents the area. “People have left and the refineries have shut down.”

Reporting was contributed by Thayer Evans, Rachel Mosteller and Ian Urbina.

[MsTerry]

"The storm itself changed a little bit. I think it tightened up more and more of the energy went into the center," Shaffer said.
He said the surge at Galveston, where Ike made landfall, was about 11 feet, half of what was predicted.

Ike blasts Texas coast, floods homes, cuts power

By JUAN A. LOZANO and CHRIS DUNCAN, Associated Press Writers 10 minutes ago

Howling ashore with 110 mph winds, Hurricane Ike ravaged the Texas coast Saturday, flooding thousands of homes and businesses, shattering windows in Houston's skyscrapers and knocking out power to millions of people.
At first light, it was unclear how many may have perished, and authorities mobilized for a huge search-and-rescue operation to reach the more than 100,000 people who ignored warnings that any attempt to ride the storm out could bring "certain death."
"The unfortunate truth is we're going to have to go in ... and put our people in the tough situation to save people who did not choose wisely. We'll probably do the largest search-and-rescue operation that's ever been conducted in the state of Texas," said Andrew Barlow, spokesman for Gov. Rick Perry.
With the winds still blowing, authorities in some places could not venture outside to get a full look at the damage, but they were encouraged that the storm surge topped out at only 13.5 feet — far lower than the catastrophic 20-to-25-foot wall of water forecasters had feared.
The storm, nearly as big as Texas itself, blasted a 500-mile stretch of coastline in Louisiana and Texas. It breached levees, flooded roads and led more than 1 million people to evacuate and seek shelter inland.
"Every storm's unique, but this one certainly will be remembered for its size," said Benton McGee, supervisory hydrologist at the U.S. Geological Survey's storm surge center in Ruston, La.
Of greatest concern were the more than 100,000 people in coastal counties who ignored mandatory evacuation orders, including thousands of residents of Galveston, the low-lying barrier island where Ike crashed ashore at 3:10 a.m. EDT.
"We don't know what we are going to find," Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas said. "We hope we will find the people who are left here alive and well."
Officials in Houston and along the coast reported receiving thousands of distress calls overnight but they were unable to respond because of the dangerous hurricane conditions. Emergency responders were fanning out Saturday morning from the Reliant Center in Houston to take stock of the damage and rescue any holdouts who needed help
"This is a democracy," said Mark Miner, a spokesman for Perry. "Local officials who can order evacuations put out very strong messages. Gov. Perry put out a very strong warning. But you can't force people to leave their homes. They made a decision to ride out the storm. Our prayers are with them."
Ike passed directly over downtown Houston before dawn, blowing out windows in the state's tallest building, the Chase Tower. Behind splintered shards, desks were exposed to the pounding morning rains, metal blinds hung in a twisted heap from some windows, and smoky black glass covered the streets below.
Documents, marked "highly confidential," were strewn across nearly empty streets.
"It sounded like ice or something hitting the window but really it was glass," said Santa Montelongo, 53, who took refuge inside her office at a nearby building. "We could see it fly by. It got really spooky."
Fires burned untended across Galveston and Houston. Brennan's, a landmark downtown Houston restaurant, was destroyed by flames when firefighters were thwarted by high winds. Fire officials said a restaurant worker and his young daughter were taken to a hospital in critical condition with burns over 70 percent of their bodies.
Mindful of the deadly chaos that ensured in 2005 when the nation's fourth-largest city emptied out ahead of Hurricane Rita, Houston officials evacuated only the lowest-lying areas of the city and told some 2 million others to "hunker down" and ride out the storm at home. Ike was the first hurricane since Alicia in 1983 to land a direct hit on Houston.
"From the beginning, we knew this was going to be a big storm, a frightening situation," said County Judge Ed Emmett, who urged residents to stay inside, even if they think the storm has passed. "Those of us who were around 25 years ago when Alicia came through, we know what it's like to listen to those winds and that rain. But from where we now stand, as the storm goes through and clears our area, we are going to see our community at its very best."
As Ike moved north later Saturday morning, the storm dropped to a Category 1 hurricane with winds of around 80 mph. At 11 a.m. EDT, the center was about 20 miles north-northeast of Huntsville, Texas, and moving north at 16 mph. It was expected to turn toward Arkansas later in the day and become a tropical storm.
Because Ike was so huge, hurricane winds pounded the coast for hours before landfall and continued through the morning, with the worst winds and rain after the center came ashore, forecasters said.
"For us, it was a 10," Galveston Fire Chief Mike Varela said. Varela said firefighters responded to dozens of rescue calls before suspending operations Friday night, including from people who changed their minds and fled at the last minute.
Six feet of water had collected in the Galveston County Courthouse in the island's downtown, and the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston was flooded, according to local storm reports on the National Weather Service's Web site.
"I'm drained. I'm beat up," said Steven Rushing, a commercial fishmerman who tried to ride out the storm with his wife and several family members, including his pregnant 17-year-old daughter, in their one-story brick home on Galveston Island. Early Saturday, he loaded his family into a 17-foot ski boat and headed for safety. The boat ran aground and the Rushings sprinted for safety, guided by lights from police responding to a 911 call made from the boat.
"My family is traumatized. I kept them here, promising them everything would be alright, but this is the real deal and I won't stay no more."
More than 3 million customers lost power in southeast Texas, and thousands more in Louisiana. Suppliers warned it could be weeks before all service was restored. The only parts of Houston with power were downtown and the massive medical center section.
Because of the hurricane's size, the state's shallow coastal waters and its largely unprotected coastline, forecasters said the biggest threat would be flooding and storm surge.
Earlier forecasts said Ike would hurl a wall of water two stories high — 20 to 25 feet — at the coast. But Wilson Shaffer of the National Weather Service said Saturday that storm surge peaked at 13 1/2 feet.
"The storm itself changed a little bit. I think it tightened up more and more of the energy went into the center," Shaffer said.
He said the surge at Galveston, where Ike made landfall, was about 11 feet, half of what was predicted.
There was other good news: A stranded freighter with 22 men aboard made it through the brunt of the storm safely, and a tugboat was on the way to save them. And an evacuee from Calhoun County gave birth to a baby girl in the restroom of a shelter with the aid of an expert in geriatric psychiatry who delivered his first baby in two decades.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency said more than 5.5 million prepackaged meals were being sent to the region, along with more than 230 generators and 5.6 million liters of water. At least 3,500 FEMA officials were stationed in Texas and Louisiana.
The oil and gas industry was closely watching Ike because it was headed straight for the nation's biggest complex of refineries and petrochemical plants. Wholesale gasoline prices jumped to around $4.85 a gallon for fear of shortages.
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Juan A. Lozano reported from Galveston. Chris Duncan reported from Houston. Associated Press writers Jim Vertuno and Jay Root in Austin, Eileen Sullivan in Washington, Schuyler Dixon and Paul Weber in Dallas, John Porretto, Monica Rhor and Pauline Arrillaga in Houston, Michael Kunzelman in Lake Charles, La., Brian Skoloff in West Palm Beach, Fla., April Castro and Andre Coe in College Station, and Allen G. Breed and video journalist Rich Matthews in Surfside Beach also contributed.