In today's excerpt--drawing conclusions from
incomplete information:



"If science works because we live in a world of
regularities, it works in the particular way it does
because of some peculiarities in our own makeup. In
particular, we are masters at drawing conclusions
from incomplete information. We are constantly
observing the world and then making predictions and
drawing conclusions about it. That is what hunter-
gatherers do, and it is also what particle physicists
and microbiologists do. We never have
enough information to justify completely the
conclusions we draw. Being able to act on guesses
and hunches, and act confidently when the
information we have points somewhere but does not
constitute a proof, is an essential skill that makes
someone a good businessperson, a good hunter or
farmer, or a good scientist. It is a big part of what
makes human beings such a successful
species.



"But this ability comes at a heavy price, which is that
we easily fool ourselves. Of course, we know that we
are easily fooled by others. Lying is strongly
sanctioned because it is so effective. It is, after all,
only because we are built to come to conclusions
from incomplete information that we are so vulnerable
to lies. Our basic stance has to be one of trust, for if
we required proof of everything, we would never
believe anything. We would never do anything--never
get out of bed, never make marriages, friendships, or
alliances. Without the ability to trust, we would be
solitary animals. Language is effective and useful
because most of the time we believe what other
people tell us.



"But what is equally important, and sobering, is how
often we fool ourselves. And we fool ourselves not
only individually but en masse. The tendency of a
group of human beings to quickly come to believe
something that its individual members will later see
as obviously false is truly amazing. Some of the worst
tragedies of the last century happened because
well-meaning people fell for easy solutions proposed
by
bad leaders. But arriving at a consensus is part of
who we are, for it is essential if a band of hunters
is to succeed or a tribe is to flee approaching
danger.



"For a community to survive, then, there must be
mechanisms of correction: elders who curb the
impulsiveness of the young because if they have
learned anything in their long lives, it is how often they
were wrong; the young, who challenge beliefs that
have been held obvious and sacred for generations,
when those beliefs are no longer apt. Human society
has progressed because it has learned to require of
its members both rebellion and respect, and because
it has discovered social mechanisms that over time
balance those qualities."



suggested by a delanceyplace reader



Lee Smolin, The Trouble with Physics,
Houghton Mifflin,
2006, pp. 299-300.