Let me introduce you to the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board

[Mayacaman]

The World Knows an Apocalyptic Pandemic Is Coming

But nobody is interested in doing anything about it.

BY LAURIE GARRETT

SEPTEMBER 20, 2019, 12:48 PM

A new independent report compiled at the request of the United Nations secretary-general warns that there is a “very real threat” of a pandemic sweeping the planet, killing up to 80 million people. A deadly pathogen, spread airborne around the world, the report says, could wipe out almost 5 percent of the global economy. And we’re not ready.

The ominous analysis was compiled by an independent panel, the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB), which was assembled last year in response to a request from the office of the U.N. secretary-general, and convened jointly by the World Bank and World Health Organization (WHO). Co-chaired by the former WHO head and former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland and the head of the international Red Cross, Elhadj As Sy, the GPMB commissioned expert studies and issued a scathing attack on the political, financial, and logistical state of pandemic preparedness affairs.

“Preparedness is hampered by the lack of continued political will at all levels,” read the report. “Although national leaders respond to health crises when fear and panic grow strong enough, most countries do not devote the consistent energy and resources needed to keep outbreaks from escalating into disasters.”

With no intention of degrading the GPMB’s effort, I must sadly say that this core message has been shouted from the rafters many times before, with little discernable impact on tone-deaf political leaders, financial enterprises, or multinational institutions. There’s no reason to think this time will be any different. It’s hard to know what, shy of a genuinely devastating pandemic of killer influenza or some currently unknown microbe, will motivate global leaders to take microscopic threats seriously.

In May 1989, Nobel laureate Joshua Lederberg gathered fellow Nobelists and a roster of extraordinary virus-hunters for a three-day meeting in Washington to consider a then bold hypothesis that viruses, far from being vanquished by modern medicine, were actually surging worldwide in animals and people, often in forms never previously seen. And air travel increasingly meant that an outbreak in an obscure location could spread to large cities, even make its way around the world. At the time, the exploding HIV/AIDS epidemic focused collective attention: If the incurable virus could claim millions of lives, what other threats might lurk? During the gathering I felt tensions rise by the hour, as the volume of evidence grew in support of the dire hypothesis.

The National Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Medicine was sufficiently shaken by the meeting that it delved further, beyond the kingdom of viruses to all microbial threats, and in 1992 published a call to arms—a report that drew sufficient interest at U.S. President Bill Clinton’s White House to prompt the formal classification of emerging diseases as national-security threats in 1996.

In 1994 I published my book on the subject, The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance, arguing that human disruption of the global environment, coupled with behaviors that readily spread microbes between people and from animals to humans, guaranteed a global surge in epidemics, even an enormous pandemic. And in 2000, my book Betrayal of Trust: The Collapse of Global Public Health demonstrated that outbreaks were aided and abetted by inept health systems, human behavior, and the complete lack of consistent political and financial support for disease-fighting preparedness everywhere in the world.

So what has changed?

An enormous number of previously unknown viruses, such as the one that caused the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), have claimed the lives of people and animals around the world. In just seven years (from 2011 to 2018), for example, the WHO did battle with 1,483 epidemics.

And the costs of containment, coupled with the disruptions’ general economic impact, have worsened, according to a GPMB study commissioned by the World Bank. The 2003 SARS epidemic exacted a toll of about $40 billion on the global economy, the 2009 swine flu epidemic reached about $50 billion, and the 2014-16 West African Ebola epidemic cost nearly $53 billion. An influenza pandemic akin to the 1918 flu would today cost the world economy $3 trillion, or up to 4.8 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP).

Economically, wealthy nations have proven the most resilient in recent outbreaks, and the GPMB predicts that countries such as the United States and Germany could get through a devastating epidemic with less than 0.5 percent loss of GDP. But poorer nations—from India and Russia down to the countries of Central Africa—could lose up to 2 percent of their GDPs from the same hypothetical pandemic. The West African Ebola epidemic directly cost the hardest-hit countries—Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea—$2.8 billion, knocking Sierra Leone’s GDP down a whopping 20 percent in 2015.

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Laurie Garrett is a former senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations and a Pulitzer Prize winning science writer.

[Mayacaman]

World not prepared for pandemic that
could wipe out millions, experts warn


Up to 80 million people could be wiped out in as little as 36 hours
if a global pandemic broke out, health experts have warned.

Alle McMahon
September 19, 2019

Up to 80 million people could die across the world if a pandemic like the Spanish flu was to break out today, an international panel of health experts has warned.

Faster travel times and a larger global population means the disease could spread anywhere overseas in less than 36 hours and wipe out nearly 5 per cent of the world’s economy, the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB) said in its first annual report released on Wednesday.

Weakening trust in governments and decreasing vaccination rates could also compound the crisis, it said.
“The threat of a pandemic spreading around the globe is a real one. A quick-moving pathogen has the potential to kill tens of millions of people, disrupt economies and destabilise national security,” the 15-member board wrote.

According to the report, while governments and international agencies have learned many valuable lessons from previous health emergencies, such as the outbreak of Ebola in Africa, the world remains grossly underprepared for a wider crisis.

“The world is at risk. But, collectively, we already have the tools to save ourselves and our economies. What we need is leadership and the willingness to act forcefully and effectively,” Dr Gro Harlem Brundtland, the former director-general of the World Health Organisation (WHO), and Elhadj As Sy, the current secretary-general of the International Federation of the Red Cross, said.

WHAT CAN THE WORLD DO?

Governments should be more proactive in preparing for a global pandemic by investing in their health systems, boosting funding for research and building greater trust with the public, the report says.

“For too long, we have allowed a cycle of panic and neglect when it comes to pandemics: we ramp up efforts when there is a serious threat, then quickly forget about them when the threat subsides,” it said.

More than 1400 epidemics in 72 countries were tracked by the WHO between 2011 and 2018 and the threat of a “global health emergency looms large”, it warned.

Global examples of emerging and re-emerging diseases. Supplied: Global Preparedness Monitoring Board Source:Supplied

A fast-moving respiratory disease, similar to the 1918 ‘Spanish flu’ that sickened one third of the world’s population and killed as many as 50 million people, would be particularly devastating, it said.

“If a similar contagion occurred today with a population four times larger and travel times anywhere in the world less than 36 hours, 50-80 million people could perish.”

ECONOMIES COULD ALSO COLLAPSE

In addition to the devastating loss of life, the world economy would also suffer, according to the report.

For example, the World Bank estimates a Spanish flu-like pandemic would cost the modern global economy more than A$4.3 trillion dollars.

For comparison, the 2003 SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) epidemic cost about A$58 billion and the Ebola outbreak cost A$77 billion.

The great majority of national health systems would be unable to handle a large-scale outbreak, with the poorest and most fragile communities facing the greatest risk.

More from the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board's first report https://t.co/6BMfA6dvnI #AWorldatRisk pic.twitter.com/LsFOns9B3l
— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) September 18, 2019

The GPMB said African countries, such as Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone would be most vulnerable to economic loss, while Australia, the United States and United Kingdom would be less so.

But the impact on international trade chains and tourism would mean both rich and poor countries could feel the pinch.

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[Mayacaman]

WHO and World Bank Group Join Forces to Strengthen Global Health Security

May 24, 2018

GENEVA, MAY 24 2018 -- WHO and World Bank Group today launched a new mechanism to strengthen global health security through stringent independent monitoring and regular reporting of preparedness to tackle outbreaks, pandemics, and other emergencies with health consequences.

WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and World Bank Group President Dr Jim Yong Kim co-led the creation of the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, launched today on the margins of the 71^st Session of the World Health Assembly.

The Board will be co-chaired by Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland, former Prime Minister of Norway and former WHO Director-General, and Mr Elhadj As Sy, Secretary General of the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. It will include political leaders, heads of UN agencies and world-class health experts, serving in their individual, independent capacities.

"The ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is a stark reminder that outbreaks can happen anywhere, at any time," said Dr Tedros.

"Part of being prepared is having a means of assessing progress made at all levels, by all actors, identifying gaps, including in financing, and making sure all actors are working together, pulling in the same direction. I’m proud of the work we’ve done together with the World Bank Group to establish the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, and delighted that it will be led by such exceptional global health leaders," he added.

"For too long, we have allowed a cycle of panic and neglect when it comes to pandemics: we ramp up efforts when there’s a serious threat, then quickly forget about them when the threat subsides," Dr. Kim said. "With the GPMB, we’re taking a large step towards breaking that cycle. The GPMB will help save lives, prevent economic damage, and ensure that we keep pandemic preparedness at the top of the global agenda.”

"Pandemic preparedness must be as much local as global, and we must meaningfully engage local communities in preparedness, detection, response and recovery to disease outbreaks. I warmly welcome the launch of this Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, and commit to partner with you all. We all need to be accountable to each other on the promises we make, and the results we achieve," said Mr Sy.

Board co-chair Dr Brundtland added: "With the current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo reminding all of us of the West African outbreak of 2014-15, the importance of being prepared for and resilient to health crises has never been clearer. Though the last two years of progress in improving capacity to respond to such events is encouraging, gaps remain – and it is time to stop talking about them, and start addressing them. It is in view of this that I welcome the establishment of the new Global Preparedness Monitoring Board and am pleased to be co-chairing it.

The Board will monitor preparedness activities on a global scale, and will hold all actors, from private and public sectors, accountable for building essential public health capacities, generating sustainable financing and ensuring that necessary research and development is conducted."

The UN Secretary-General’s Global Health Crises Task Force, created in 2016 in response to the West Africa Ebola outbreak, recommended in its mid-2017 final report to the UN General Assembly the need for robust ongoing monitoring of global health emergency preparedness. In response, WHO and the World Bank worked together to establish the new monitoring board. The Board’s Secretariat will be housed at WHO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland.

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PRESS RELEASE NO: 2018/172/HNP

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Contacts

Geneva

Anugraha (Anu) Palan
Communications Lead

+1-240-565-4078

[email protected]


The Board will monitor emergency preparedness across national governments, UN agencies, civil society and the private sector. It will report annually on adequacy of financing, progress on relevant research and development, and the strength of health crisis preparedness at the global, regional and national levels.

Building on that report, the Board will advocate at the highest levels for health crisis preparedness. It will ensure that all stakeholders, at all levels and across all sectors, keep these issues on the political agenda and are held accountable for making the world better prepared to respond to outbreaks and emergencies with health consequences.

[ Source ]