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  1. TopTop #121

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    May 29

    17 New cases reported in Sonoma County tonight.

    1 of the 17 was a West County resident.
    Last edited by Barry; 05-30-2020 at 09:43 AM.
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  3. TopTop #122

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    I won't post these hospital utilization charts every night. You can follow them at this link.
    It seems we are pretty good on ventilators but don't have a lot of headroom on ICU beds.


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  5. TopTop #123
    Barry's Avatar
    Barry
    Founder & Moderator

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    ICU beds is where the rubber meets the road! Numbers of new cases is not that informative because as testing increases "new" cases will increase.

    Remember the key reason for the lock down was the flatten the curve so our medical system is not overwhelmed. To me, that's not controversial. Trying to flatten the curve/suppression beyond that is up for debate.

    Given that our testing is still not up to the level that it can reliable catch a systemic outbreak, it also makes sense to keep things relatively locked down until the testing infrastructure is up to snuff.

    But the real measurement of how bad things are is at the ICU. The only problem is that by then, it too late to address

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  7. TopTop #124
    Dustyg's Avatar
    Dustyg
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    I ordered a book from Copperfield's and picked it up around 10:45 am. I parked around the corner and walked over, and I must have seen about a dozen people downtown, in various groups or alone, and NO ONE besides me was wearing a mask...What are people thinking?
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  9. TopTop #125
    wisewomn's Avatar
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Clearly, they're not, Dusty. :-(

    Quote Dustyg wrote: View Post
    I ordered a book from Copperfield's ...What are people thinking?
    Last edited by Barry; 05-31-2020 at 09:48 AM.
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  11. TopTop #126

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Quote Dustyg wrote: View Post
    ...What are people thinking?
    for some reason I've been thinking about George Carlin's routine, on how being drunk changes your priorities.. "I don't care about my shoes.... ...".
    No, only me??
    but really, I think a few weeks of this is pushing several people to the point where it just doesn't feel worth it. If you ask them, I'm sure they'll come up with some explanation -- but I think it's really just that it seems too much for too long. It's consistent with human nature. We just don't stick to behaviors that are "good for us", or take uncomfortable actions if they can be avoided, or ignore bad things as they develop. You can see it from the rise of Nazism to the ongoing issue with the climate. I'm frankly surprised the world's shut down as much as it has, for even this long.
    Last edited by Barry; 05-31-2020 at 09:49 AM.
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  13. TopTop #127

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    May 30

    5 New cases last night. None were in West County.
    Last edited by Barry; 06-01-2020 at 01:08 PM.
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  14. TopTop #128

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    May 31

    11 New cases reported in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County. 82 active cases were declared recovered.
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  15. TopTop #129

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    June 1

    2 New Cases reported last night. None were in West County.

    I wonder if we get a spike after the protests. Yelling in close proximity seems a good way to spread this disease.

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  17. TopTop #130

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    June 2

    13 New cases last night. None in West County. Hispanics are now 72% of all cases.

    Sonoma County Beaches are open. State Beaches will be open this weekend. https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/1...eaches-to-open
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  18. TopTop #131

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    June 3

    14 new cases reported last night. None were West County.
    Only 5% of Sonoma County cases are West County Residents.
    Last edited by Barry; 06-05-2020 at 01:10 PM.
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  20. TopTop #132

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    9.7% of Sonoma County residents live in West County. With 5% of Sonoma County Cases we have roughly half the infection rate of the rest of the county.
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  22. TopTop #133
    gypsey's Avatar
    gypsey
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    That;s nice to hear...but folks, we know that more densely populated areas of our county are adversely affected
    In addition to our homeless, we know that Hispanics are adversely affected....and let's face it, they are the economic engine of our vineyards. I'd like to know what vineyards are doing to combat, test, and care.

    Quote Goat Rock Ukulele wrote: View Post
    9.7% of Sonoma County residents live in West County. With 5% of Sonoma County Cases we have roughly half the infection rate of the rest of the county.
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  24. TopTop #134

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    It's tough for winery workers. A lot of them have to ride together. Just about the easiest way to transfer this virus is to ride in the same car with someone who has it, Mask or no mask being in that confined airspace is bad news.
    Last edited by Barry; 06-05-2020 at 01:16 PM.
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  26. TopTop #135

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    June 4

    17 New cases reported last night. 2 of the 17 were West County Residents

    Antibody testing to begin in Sonoma County with goal of testing 3500
    https://patch.com/california/healdsb...-sonoma-county
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  27. TopTop #136
    Jude Iam's Avatar
    Jude Iam
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    so,
    what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity...
    so we ought to be maxxing tests and letting people rip roar around, cept for folks who were old or sick or both.
    i mean, curve is beyond flattened, so,... what? jude
    Last edited by Barry; 06-06-2020 at 11:54 AM.
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  28. TopTop #137
    rossmen
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Covid cases are reported by residence address. So the economic segregation of west county suppresses the count here. Seebasstoepull has the highest age and white race demographic of every city in sonoma county. We are privileged by statistics.

    Quote Goat Rock Ukulele wrote: View Post
    9.7% of Sonoma County residents live in West County. With 5% of Sonoma County Cases we have roughly half the infection rate of the rest of the county.
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  29. TopTop #138
    Barry's Avatar
    Barry
    Founder & Moderator

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    So, with your typical civic-minded conviction, you're going to go out and "rip roar around"?
    Quote Jude Iam wrote: View Post
    so,
    what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity...
    so we ought to be maxxing tests and letting people rip roar around, cept for folks who were old or sick or both.
    i mean, curve is beyond flattened, so,... what? jude

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  31. TopTop #139
    Jude Iam's Avatar
    Jude Iam
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    would you mind focusing on my question, barry?

    and your little dig is both uncalled for and unappreciated.
    my posts are expressly for 'civic-minded conviction' but that seems to have eluded you.

    i am surprised at this public slur and surmise that you attribute my motivation for posting about the virus situation, amongst other things, is lack of civic mindedness. quite stunning. i'll have to process that to respond further.
    jude
    Quote Barry wrote: View Post
    So, with your typical civic-minded conviction, you're going to go out and "rip roar around"?
    Last edited by Barry; 06-07-2020 at 09:42 AM.
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  32. TopTop #140

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    June 5

    14 New Cases last night in Sonoma County. None were in West County.

    They are testing everyone at the jail. Someone at the jail came down with Covid-19.
    We have too many people in jail, more than almost any other country per capita.
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  33. TopTop #141
    phredo's Avatar
    phredo
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    When listening to the health officer last week, it sounded like the IC rooms were a bottleneck point, and there aren't that many of them. Be good to hear how that's going.
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  34. TopTop #142

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    You are definitely right about that. You can follow hospital metrics here https://experience.arcgis.com/experi.../page/page_23/
    As of now there are 14 ICU beds available. A couple of serious car wrecks and that could go to zero.

    Quote phredo wrote: View Post
    When listening to the health officer last week, it sounded like the IC rooms were a bottleneck point, and there aren't that many of them. Be good to hear how that's going.
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  36. TopTop #143
    Barry's Avatar
    Barry
    Founder & Moderator

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Quote Jude Iam wrote: View Post
    would you mind focusing on my question, barry?...
    That's what I was doing. You posted:
    Quote Jude Iam wrote: View Post
    what we want is maximum number of cases, right?
    Am I missing something? Were you kidding? I took you at your word, and as I understand it, your POV is that vaccines are evil, and the right answer is to get to "fabled herd immunity" which means that letting most everyone get infected (even though we don't know if that provides immunity) and since our "curve is beyond flattened", now would be a great time to get infected.

    What am I missing?

    Quote Jude Iam wrote: View Post
    so,
    what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity...
    so we ought to be maxxing tests and letting people rip roar around, cept for folks who were old or sick or both.
    i mean, curve is beyond flattened, so,... what? jude

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  38. TopTop #144
    geomancer's Avatar
    geomancer
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Quote Jude Iam wrote: View Post
    so,
    what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity...
    so we ought to be maxxing tests and letting people rip roar around, cept for folks who were old or sick or both.
    i mean, curve is beyond flattened, so,... what? jude
    No Jude, a slow trickle of cases that does not swamp our hospitals and, especially, the ICU's is what we want.
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  40. TopTop #145
    gypsey's Avatar
    gypsey
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Sweden tried that. We know what happened.

    Quote Jude Iam wrote: View Post
    so,
    what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity.....
    Last edited by Barry; 06-07-2020 at 10:48 AM.
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  42. TopTop #146
    Jude Iam's Avatar
    Jude Iam
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    well, barry, richard, fred, maria and all who will stay 6' / masked / locked down till you get vaccinated, if you read this and understand it, it is simply madness/mass hysteria that would induce you to continue, unless you're over 80 and sick. jude

    LOCKDOWN LUNACY: the thinking person's guide
    By J.B. Handley
    May 30

    For anyone willing to look, there are so many facts that tell the true story, and it goes something like this:
    Knowing what we know today about COVID-19’s Infection Fatality Rate, asymmetric impact by age and medical condition, non-transmissibility by asymptomatic people and in outdoor settings, near-zero fatality rate for children, and the basic understanding of viruses through Farr’s law, locking down society was a bone-headed policy decision so devastating to society that historians may judge it as the all-time worst decision ever made. Worse, as these clear facts have become available, many policy-makers haven’t shifted their positions, despite the fact that every hour under any stage of lockdown has a domino-effect of devastation to society. Meanwhile, the media—with a few notable exceptions—is oddly silent on all the good news. Luckily, an unexpected group of heroes across the political landscape—many of them doctors and scientists—have emerged to tell the truth, despite facing extreme criticism and censorship from an angry mob desperate to continue fighting an imaginary war.

    My goal is to engage in known facts. You, the reader, can decide if all of these facts, when you put them together, equate to the story above.

    Fact #1: The Infection Fatality Rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.07-0.20%, in line with seasonal flu

    The Infection fatality Rate math of ANY new virus ALWAYS declines over time as more data becomes available, as any virologist could tell you. In the early days of COVID-19 where we only had data from China, there was a fear that the IFR could be as high as 3.4%, which would indeed be cataclysmic. On April 17th, the first study was published from Stanford researchers that should have ended all lockdowns immediately, as the scientists reported that their research “implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases” and pegged the IFR between 0.12-0.2%. The researchers also speculated that the final IFR, as more data emerged, would likely “be lower.” For context, seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1%. Smallpox? 30%.

    As the first study to peg the IFR, the Stanford study came under withering criticism, prompting the lead researcher, Dr. John Ioannidis to note,
    “There’s some sort of mob mentality here operating that they just insist that this has to be the end of the world, and it has to be that the sky is falling. It’s attacking studies with data based on speculation and science fiction. But dismissing real data in favor of mathematical speculation is mind-boggling.”

    Like all good science, the Stanford data on IFR has now been replicated so many times that our own Centers for Disease Control came out this week to announce that their ‘best estimate’ showed an IFR below 0.3%. In this article on the CDC’s new data, they also highlighted how the cascading declines in IFR has removed all the fears of doomsday:

    Continues here

    Quote gypsey wrote: View Post
    Sweden tried that. We know what happened.
    Last edited by Barry; 06-07-2020 at 09:59 AM.
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  43. TopTop #147

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    June 6

    18 Cases last night reported in Sonoma County. None were in West County.

    ICU beds have been holding around 14 available and 53 in use. Napa county Covid numbers are on the rise.
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  45. TopTop #148
    Barry's Avatar
    Barry
    Founder & Moderator

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Quote Jude Iam wrote: View Post
    well, barry, richard, fred, maria and all who will stay 6' / masked / locked down till you get vaccinated, if you read this and understand it, it is simply madness/mass hysteria that would induce you to continue, unless you're over 80 and sick. jude

    LOCKDOWN LUNACY: the thinking person's guide
    Got it. So again:

    "So, with your typical civic-minded conviction, you're going to go out and "rip roar around"?" and not worry about getting infected or infecting others?
    Last edited by Barry; 06-08-2020 at 11:43 AM.

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  47. TopTop #149
    geomancer's Avatar
    geomancer
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    So we have 26% of the ICU beds available, plenty of slack for us to go rip-roaring-around, amirite Jude?
    Last edited by Barry; 06-08-2020 at 11:44 AM.
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  49. TopTop #150
    Jude Iam's Avatar
    Jude Iam
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    barry,
    since you acknowledge that you don't read or watch much of what's posted here on this topic,
    but continue to post and harangue, what's the point of dialoging with you? it's worthless.

    you insult me with sarcasm about "
    typical civic-minded conviction" as though i lacked it, but do not address my question of what your idea is of progressing from the state of masked, distanced, locked down other than getting the vaccine you await.

    fatality rate is now acknowledged at .26% and that mostly elderly sick - less than usual flu. enormous amounts of data, bored with and tired of repeating. think for yourself or await further orders.
    Quote Barry wrote: View Post
    Got it. So again:
    "So, with your typical civic-minded conviction, you're going to go out and "rip roar around"?" and not worry about getting infected or infecting others?
    Last edited by Barry; 06-08-2020 at 11:45 AM.
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