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  1. TopTop #1
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    I am going to try to post the latest Sonoma County Chart in this thread and perhaps comment on trends etc.

    One interesting thing is the age of those who are sick. The majority is the 18-49 group. Even they have a high fairly high hospitalization rate here in the County. Close to 20%.

    The two metrics I am watching is New Cases and Active Cases.

    Number of tests is also an important metric but that is not charted here.

    Obviously we would like to see New Cases stay low and eventually go to zero.
    Last edited by Barry; 04-01-2020 at 12:47 PM.
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  3. TopTop #2
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 1

    138 tests reported today with six new positives. Please don't let these numbers give you false confidence. Testing criteria is still quite strict. So only certain groups even with symptoms are getting tested.

    And only about 20% or less gets sick enough to show up at a test site. So the number of people who have covid-19 infections is many many times the active case number.

    These charts should only be used to try to identify trends and not your risk of community infection. By their nature they are trailing indicators.

    The trend I believe I see is it is spreading in Sonoma County but not explosively, which means we may be doing a good job to date.
    Last edited by Barry; 04-02-2020 at 10:17 AM.
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  5. TopTop #3
    rossmen
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    I think the most important metrics are daily deaths and daily new cases. The deaths measure about how many people got infected about two weeks ago, just multiply by 80. The new cases are a measure of the interaction between testing, ie number of, accuracy and result speed, and how many people got infected 3 to 12 days ago.

    Since both numbers are relatively steady in soco it shows that what were doing is working. Since testing is getting better the number of new infections could be dropping. This would be confirmed by daily deaths dropping.

    However since the virus is now all over the world and in most places daily death and cases are rising geometrically it's beyond containment and elimination. And our current first world strategies are only sustainable for so long in a minority of the world. Interesting times.
    Last edited by Barry; 04-03-2020 at 09:23 AM.
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  7. TopTop #4
    SonomaPatientsCoop's Avatar
    SonomaPatientsCoop
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Would you care to share the app/site where you are getting those numbers/graphs? Thanks.

    I'll just add- Newsom in his daily briefings seems to be most concerned with the number of hospitalizations - especially the numbers in ICU. Does anyone know of a good source for these numbers outside of the daily briefing?
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  8. TopTop #5
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 2

    146 tests, 4 positive cases

    You can see the full Chart here

    Hospitalization rate is 19% of positive cases in Sonoma County.

    So far Seniors seem to be mostly staying out of the fray in Sonoma County with only 15% of the positive cases.
    Last edited by Barry; 04-03-2020 at 09:12 AM.
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  10. TopTop #6
    podfish's Avatar
    podfish
    Supporting Member

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Quote SonomaPatientsCoop wrote: View Post
    ...I'll just add- Newsom in his daily briefings seems to be most concerned with the number of hospitalizations - especially the numbers in ICU.
    which is appropriate, I think. I think preventing overload of the hospitals is top of mind for him.
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  12. TopTop #7
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 3

    351 Tests run, 5 new positive cases. 21 recovered Some of these numbers come in late in the evening. Our County Health workers are working late into the night. They deserve a great deal of gratitude and respect. Maybe when this is over we should think of someway to show appreciation.
    Last edited by Barry; 04-04-2020 at 09:45 AM.
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  14. TopTop #8
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 4

    138 Tests reported tonight in Sonoma County.
    2 new positives.
    We now have 23 recovered.
    2409 total tests to date.
    Last edited by Barry; 04-05-2020 at 11:32 AM.
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  16. TopTop #9
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 6 (the was no reporting on the 5th)

    171 Tests since Saturday night
    2580 Total tests in Sonoma County
    15 New Positives for the 2 day period
    30 Recovered
    Last edited by Barry; 04-07-2020 at 11:28 AM.
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  18. TopTop #10
    Barry's Avatar
    Barry
    Founder & Moderator

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Thanks for your posts, Goat Rock!

    There's also an excellent "Coronavirus Dashboard" on the PD site here.

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  20. TopTop #11
    gardenmaniac's Avatar
    gardenmaniac
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    thanks for all this info. what time interval does the number recovered span?

    Quote Goat Rock Ukulele wrote: View Post
    April 6 (the was no reporting on the 5th)

    171 Tests since Saturday night
    2580 Total tests in Sonoma County
    15 New Positives for the 2 day period
    30 Recovered
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  21. TopTop #12
    spam1's Avatar
    spam1
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Not sure if you are days behind, but here is the report on April 7. Report shows April 5/6 had 4 and 4 new for 8 total. and 5 more on April 7. 15 new starting from April 4th - April 7 so 4 new cases average per day. But recovered increased so Active is lower. But the critical number is hospitalizations that has stayed flat at 20 for several days (new cases depend on testing, but hospitalizations are a more firm indication of the seriousness of the outbreak, which is said to be 20%, so consistent with 100 cases total).
    -source

    Date Active New Deaths Recovered
    4/07/2020 81 5 1 38
    4/06/2020 84 4 1 30
    4/05/2020 87 4 1 23
    4/04/2020 83 3 1 23
    4/03/2020 81 9 1 21
    Last edited by Barry; 04-08-2020 at 12:16 PM.
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  23. TopTop #13
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Now that they are including the testing numbers and the new cases I will just post these screen shots. Still getting new infections diagnosed but at a low level. Does anyone know how difficult it is to get tested?
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]49156[/ATTACH]
    Last edited by Barry; 04-08-2020 at 10:10 AM.
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  25. TopTop #14
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Not that may tests today but a nasty little uptick in the new cases. Nice that 9 more are listed as recovered and we are holding strong at 1 person who lost their life. Hopefully the greater new cases is not a trend. Keep your head down out there.
    They have taken the new case metric off the chart.


    [ATTACH=CONFIG]49161[/ATTACH]
    Last edited by Barry; 04-09-2020 at 01:41 PM.
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  27. TopTop #15
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 9

    It seems the site where the test numbers are posted is corrupted tonight.
    We have 5 new positives so perhaps the 16 of yesterday was an outlier.

    I read a German study that suggested only about 6% of those infected are actually being picked up when you factor all the asymptomatic and mild cases. That seems high to me but until we do widespread testing there really is no way to be sure. That would put the case number in Sonoma County over 1000. It really does look like we are bending the curve. A lot of people doing great work by staying home and in doing so saving a lot of people in the state of California.
    Last edited by Barry; 04-10-2020 at 12:40 PM.
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  29. TopTop #16
    Finell's Avatar
    Finell
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    The press reports about the 16 new cases in one day were misleading and unnecessarily alarmed the public. I looked at the numbers as reported on the Sonoma County "dashboard" that tracks all the cases.

    Of the 16 supposedly "new" cases, only 2 were active (people still suffering from the disease); the other 14 were individuals who had already recovered from the illness. This was apparently the result of an increase in testing, which found people who had recovered from the disease on their own, without hospitalization or other medical treatment.

    Looking at the numbers more broadly, during the last 7 days the number of active cases has remained flat and the number of recoveries has steadily increased. That is what the bar chart shows.

    Bottom line: The sheltering in place and maintaining physical distance from others is working. Medical treatment of COVID-19 cases is working.

    A colleague of mine in Los Angeles and his wife had COVID-19. They recovered in under 2 weeks. He said their cases were worse than a common cold but not a severe as the flu. (The flu is much more severe, and more deadly, than COVID-19.) He said most people in the immediate neighborhood also had mild cases.
    Last edited by Barry; 04-11-2020 at 12:02 PM.
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  31. TopTop #17
    Finell's Avatar
    Finell
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    I love that photo of Albert Einstein!

    Quote spam1 wrote:
    Last edited by Barry; 04-10-2020 at 10:11 PM.
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  32. TopTop #18
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 10

    3 new cases reported today.
    Active cases have been flat for about a week now.
    Sadly we lost a second person to the virus here in Sonoma County.

    It takes about 2 weeks on average to get sick enough for most to show up at a test site. We have been in lockdown for a little more than 3 weeks. So if we look back about a week on this chart we can see pretty clearly where the physical distancing kicked in.


    [ATTACH=CONFIG]49167[/ATTACH]
    Last edited by Barry; 04-11-2020 at 12:03 PM.
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  34. TopTop #19
    luke32
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    Re: "The flu is much more severe, and more deadly, than COVID-19."

    Johns Hopkins Medicine says: "Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu." (https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...019-vs-the-flu)

    And the Washington Post of 4/11 said, "The coronavirus is killing about 1 in 10 hospitalized middle-aged patients and 4 in 10 older than 85 in the United States, and is particularly lethal to men ... according to previously unpublished data from a company that aggregates real-time patient data from 1,000 hospitals and 180,000 health-care providers."

    Quote Finell wrote: View Post
    ...A colleague of mine in Los Angeles and his wife had COVID-19. They recovered in under 2 weeks. He said their cases were worse than a common cold but not a severe as the flu. (The flu is much more severe, and more deadly, than COVID-19.) He said most people in the immediate neighborhood also had mild cases.
    Last edited by Barry; 04-11-2020 at 11:16 PM.
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  36. TopTop #20
    Jon Jackson's Avatar
    Jon Jackson
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    All viruses are insidious in one way or another, hijacking normal body functions. One thing that is unique about COVID-19 is that we know now it binds in the blood stream to hemoglobin and displaces oxygen. That creates a state of hypoxia (low oxygen) in the body somewhat like altitude sickness. So, it's not just that it causes pneumonia. And, yes, the death rate is clearly higher than most forms of the flu.

    Jon Jackson, MD

    Quote luke32 wrote: View Post
    Re: "The flu is much more severe, and more deadly, than COVID-19."..
    Last edited by Barry; 04-13-2020 at 11:50 AM.
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  38. TopTop #21
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 11

    Very few tests reported. The good news is no new cases detected. Don't read to much into no cases today and keep your guard up, but no new cases today certainly isn't a bad thing.



    [ATTACH=CONFIG]49179[/ATTACH]
    Last edited by Barry; 04-13-2020 at 11:51 AM.
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  40. TopTop #22
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 12

    Testing numbers are up from yesterday. Two new cases. So far no exponential increase in new cases. This is going to be a long road but so far Sonoma County is doing a great job of keeping the spread to a minimum.


    [ATTACH=CONFIG]49181[/ATTACH]
    Last edited by Barry; 04-13-2020 at 11:51 AM.
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  42. TopTop #23
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    This chart of Morgan Stanleys projections is interesting and hopeful. I believe we will be well enough prepared and wise enough (at least on a state level) to keep that second wave to a minimum if it should appear. .


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  44. TopTop #24
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 14

    8 new cases tonight. That is a more then we have been getting. Hopefully it's not a trend.


    [ATTACH=CONFIG]49194[/ATTACH]
    Last edited by Barry; 04-15-2020 at 10:14 AM.
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  46. TopTop #25
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 15

    Three new cases. It seems testing numbers are going down. I would think they should be going up. I have read there is a shortage of testing materials around the country and testing is off by 30%. That is the wrong direction.


    [ATTACH=CONFIG]49196[/ATTACH]
    Last edited by Barry; 04-16-2020 at 11:50 AM.
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  48. TopTop #26
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 16

    The tests are up but so are the Sonoma County cases. 9 new cases today.

    We may have good news on the therapeutic front. It appears the Gilead's antiviral Remdesivir may be effective.

    I've been following this drug closely. The drawback could be it's hard to make and takes time to make. I'm hopeful that other countries can also produce it. I know BrightGene a biotech in China is also producing it. This could be the first real drug to make covid-19 largely a treatable disease.

    https://www.foxnews.com/science/expe...-shows-promise

    [ATTACH=CONFIG]49203[/ATTACH]
    Last edited by Barry; 04-17-2020 at 11:02 AM.
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  50. TopTop #27
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 17

    6 new cases reported today.

    Stanford University tested people for Covid-19 antibodies at random in Santa Clara County. From their tests they postulated between 55,000 and 80,000 had been exposed to the virus. I don't know what to make of that. Maybe their test is faulty, maybe far far greater numbers get exposed and have no symptoms.


    [ATTACH=CONFIG]49209[/ATTACH]
    Last edited by Barry; 04-18-2020 at 08:57 AM.
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  52. TopTop #28
    geomancer's Avatar
    geomancer
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    This table shows a 4% test-positivity rate (163/4010) for Sonoma County. This is quite good as this thing goes in the US, which has a ~20% test-positivity rate. Even worse, NYC has a 55% test-positivity rate, meaning they are missing a vary, very large percentage of the infections. Read the ​Atlantic article below for a deep dive into this subject.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...y-rate/610132/
    "The test-positivity rate, then, is a decent (if unusual) proxy for the severity of an outbreak in an area. And it shows clearly that the U.S. still lags far behind other countries in the course of fighting its outbreak. South Korea—which discovered its first coronavirus case on the same day as the U.S.—has tested more than half a million people, or about 1 percent of its population, and discovered about 10,500 cases. The U.S. has now tested 3.2 million people, which is also about 1 percent of its population, but it has found more than 630,000 cases. So while the U.S. has a 20 percent positivity rate, South Korea’s is only about 2 percent—a full order of magnitude smaller."

    Quote Goat Rock Ukulele wrote: View Post
    April 15

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  54. TopTop #29
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 18

    43 tests with 0 new cases detected.

    It's a good point by the previous poster about the low positive rates we are seeing. If you are in a city with many many cases it seems the the virus goes everywhere. I read a story today about air tankers being used in Spain to coat entire cities with disinfectant. I see a lot of video of Asian cities being disinfected. I have not seen that being done anywhere in the US.
    I read another story that it can be spread by farts. I guess we will have to light our farts like we used to do in junior high.




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    Last edited by Barry; 04-19-2020 at 11:23 AM.
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  56. TopTop #30
    Goat Rock Ukulele's Avatar
    Goat Rock Ukulele
     

    Re: Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

    April 19

    1 new case reported today.

    Still no major outbreak detected here in Sonoma County. We will know more about how wide spread this bug is when they start doing the antibody tests.


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    Last edited by Barry; 04-20-2020 at 11:17 AM.
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