2012: The Discussion

[Dixon]

2012 THE ODYSSEY- The film
This film brings together science, mysticism, the occult and common sense...all of them print toward personal revelation and earthly changes of the greatest magnitude...
The Mayan Calendar is ending on December 21st, 2012. What will happen to us between now and then? Are there other prophecies that also predict the closing of this world age and start of a new beginning?
...this film shows us that the coming world is ours to reshape and to remake in any way that we deem possible...

Ah yes, 2012, brought to you by the same people who brought you the Age of Aquarius, the Harmonic Convergence, the beam of mystical ultraviolet light from higher dimensions, a hundred different "ends of the world", and so many other much-hyped cosmic events, each one culminating in the same result: ABSOLUTELY NOTHING HAPPENED! I'm so excited!

Pardon me while I practice the ancient art of Sacred Vomiting.

Does that seem harsh? Okay, here's your chance to tell me "I told you so" when the predicted event comes true: Make one or more predictions about what will happen on December 21st, 2012--predictions that are specific enough so that the events of that day will clearly confirm or disconfirm them, significant enough to be worth all your hype, and unusual enough that we can't expect them to happen in the usual course of events. Bet me whatever amount of money you want to bet on it. If you win, I pay up and publicly apologize for doubting your wisdom. If I win, you pay up and promise to take a course in basic critical thinking, which I will teach for free. Fair enough? C'mon, don't be shy, step right up!

I hereby offer this bet to everyone, and I am not kidding, folks.

Blessings;

Dixon

[Debra Giusti]

Hi Dixon!

Thanks for your comments as I do always really appreciate your humor. And thanks for speaking up like you always do, as you say what others may be thinking but don't. And that fosters opportunity for clarification for many.

Apparently you have not really studied the topic and are making a personal judgment based on your experience and life philosophy, which I can totally respect, but I cautious you around going off about it until you really study it.

You seem to be categorizing this planetary transition as some big end of the world explosion. That is not what 2012 is about. Neither is the Age of Aquarious, the Harmony Convergence or other points in major human and planetary transitions.

2012 is a major turning point in a great planetary shift, that is part of all the major planetary shifts that have happened, but it does not necessarily mean that the sky will fall that day. It is the turning point of a spiritual and planetary opportunity to evolve forward, or backward as one might choose. And there are logical, scientific and practical ways to explain it as well. It may look chaotic as we go into it and come out of it, as old unsustainable structures will be falling, (not that day in 2012 specifically, but in the years before and after) and new systems, new ways of being, living, and relating to the planet and your life have the opportunity to come out and be instated.

And it happens at all levels, physically/spiritually, personal/planetary, microcosm/macrocosm. You can look at it as the planet rebelling at the environmental damage that humanity has done and taking a stand to shift things with global warming and major weather pattern shifts; you can look at the social planetary imbalance of power, peace and cooperation and see that something is coming to a head there; or look at out economic planetary reality (and in the US) and see that something is going to pop and shift there; and you can look at your own personal life and see what's going internally and the growth that you are being asked for there.

Just because we are extremely blessed to live in the paradise of Sonoma County, you can't tell me that major shit isn't going on in the world.... and getting more intense, more complicated, more stressful and faster, more unstable, more serious every day. And there is extreme opportunity within it all to shift to a higher way of living, being and loving if you stay informed, don't go into fear and follow your own inner guidance.

Woo woo can be explained all scientifically. It is all the same, just a different way of looking at what we call reality. And it is a time now in our culture, when science and metaphysics are coming to the same point.

To me there is no doubt this is a very amazing time, that nothing that our planet has seen. My mission has always been to provide information resources and community connection around personal and planetary growth, so people can decide for themselves what is best. And that is what I will keep doing.

Always loving you Dixon and you rattle the cage. Keep on rattling.

Debra Giusti

Ah yes, 2012, brought to you by the same people who brought you the Age of Aquarius, the Harmonic Convergence, the beam of mystical ultraviolet light from higher dimensions, a hundred different "ends of the world", and so many other much-hyped cosmic events, each one culminating in the same result: ABSOLUTELY NOTHING HAPPENED! I'm so excited!

Pardon me while I practice the ancient art of Sacred Vomiting.

Does that seem harsh? Okay, here's your chance to tell me "I told you so" when the predicted event comes true: Make one or more predictions about what will happen on December 21st, 2012--predictions that are specific enough so that the events of that day will clearly confirm or disconfirm them, significant enough to be worth all your hype, and unusual enough that we can't expect them to happen in the usual course of events. Bet me whatever amount of money you want to bet on it. If you win, I pay up and publicly apologize for doubting your wisdom. If I win, you pay up and promise to take a course in basic critical thinking, which I will teach for free. Fair enough? C'mon, don't be shy, step right up!

I hereby offer this bet to everyone, and I am not kidding, folks.

Blessings;

Dixon

[Dixon]

Hi, Debra!

Thanks for your warm and thoughtful response to my post. It's refreshing to get some friendly disagreement as opposed to the hostile, or more often passive-aggressive, responses I frequently get to my (admittedly sometimes provocative) statements.

Sorry it took me so long to respond. That's partly because I wanted to give your post the thought and considered response it deserves. I'll try to limit what could be a many-pages-long rant to just the concise essentials here:

...Apparently you have not really studied the topic and are making a personal judgment based on your experience and life philosophy, which I can totally respect, but I caution you around going off about it until you really study it.

That is a very wise principle we should always keep in mind. But I wonder if you're following it yourself. Have you studied the scientific/skeptical philosophy which casts doubt on New Agey things like this 2012 thing before rejecting it? I'd be willing to wager that I know more about the 2012 thing than you do about the scientific/skeptical viewpoint, so I'd just urge you to follow your own advice here re: not rejecting something prior to learning about what it really claims and what evidence it adduces in support of those claims. I will try to live up to this principle if you will too.

You seem to be categorizing this planetary transition as some big end of the world explosion. That is not what 2012 is about. Neither is the Age of Aquarious, the Harmony Convergence or other points in major human and planetary transitions.

I did not intend to make that implication. I was trying to get more specific info re: what exactly 2012 proponents like yourself are actually predicting, so I can assess it for possible truth. That's why I asked people for specific predictions that could be tested so that we can come to some reasonable assessment re: the validity of the 2012 claims, as well as the validity of the "ways of knowing" that underlie those claims. I hope you can see that my attempt to get the claims clarified so they can be tested represents openmindedness on my part.

That said, my bias obviously was (and is) that the 2012 claims are probably hogwash, though I'd be happy to be proven wrong about that (or about anything). Here's why I'm dubious about the 2012 trip:

Life is rough, scary and uncertain. Whether it's cynical politicians telling us that prosperity is just around the corner, or spittle-flecked Bible-thumpers telling us that Jesus is returning to solve all our problems, there will always be someone peddling false hope, which may in some cases be better than no hope at all.

Without knowing much about the 2012 thing, I recognized it as being the same kind of claim as those associated with the much vaunted Age of Aquarius and Harmonic Convergence, among many others (presumably including the new "Fire the Grid" silliness). Distinguishing characteristics include a promise that something of revolutionary, earth-shaking importance will occur, probably something so positive as to radically and globally improve life, while remaining unspecific enough so that the proponents can claim that it really did happen even if it didn't. Thus they have no possibility of learning from their mistakes. Also, there is always a power fantasy involved, even if that power consists only in the promise that the believer can know what the future holds.

Of course, there are always both good and bad things happening on our planet, so those who claim that something earth-shaking really did happen on the Harmonic Convergence (for instance) can attribute a few of the good things to it (with exactly zero evidence that this is true), and those who are desperate to believe will eat it up. Or, they will invent some kind of woowoo jive like "It's not perceivable to those who are less sensitive than us, but our planet entered a higher vibrational level on the Harmonic Convergence", LOL! And of course, someone will always be making money off this desperate gullibility, just as someone will rake in the bucks on this 2012 movie.

Those who seek truth, rather than just comforting beliefs, look skeptically (NOT closedmindedly) at all claims. Part of the truth-seeking process involves clarifying specific predictions as a way of testing the claims. So I asked for such predictions and received no response from anyone except you, and your response seems evasive in that it's little more than a bunch of fuzzy, untestable generalities strung together--for example:

2012 is a major turning point in a great planetary shift, that is part of all the major planetary shifts that have happened, but it does not necessarily mean that the sky will fall that day. It is the turning point of a spiritual and planetary opportunity to evolve forward, or backward as one might choose. And there are logical, scientific and practical ways to explain it as well. It may look chaotic as we go into it and come out of it, as old unsustainable structures will be falling, (not that day in 2012 specifically, but in the years before and after) and new systems, new ways of being, living, and relating to the planet and your life have the opportunity to come out and be instated.

And it happens at all levels, physically/spiritually, personal/planetary, microcosm/macrocosm. You can look at it as the planet rebelling at the environmental damage that humanity has done and taking a stand to shift things with global warming and major weather pattern shifts; you can look at the social planetary imbalance of power, peace and cooperation and see that something is coming to a head there; or look at out economic planetary reality (and in the US) and see that something is going to pop and shift there; and you can look at your own personal life and see what's going internally and the growth that you are being asked for there.

Do you see, Debra, that what you've thus far offered is a combination of generalities which are true, but have no particular connection to the Mayan calendar or 2012 (such as your comments on environmental damage, etc.) and fuzzy notions which are too vague to really verify (such as your mentions of "major planetary shifts" and "the turning point of a spiritual and planetary opportunity to evolve forward")? Dig this: Every day throughout history has offered "a spiritual and planetary opportunity to evolve forward"! What the hell does this really have to do with the Mayan calendar or 2012? Reading or listening to this kind of stuff makes me feel like I'm being flim-flammed with smoke and mirrors.

I searched the 'Net for info on the 2012 claims to see if there was anything that might make some sense, and what I found was more vague smoke and mirrors, couched in transparently bogus reasoning rife with elementary logical fallacies. For instance, in his article on the 2012 website, Jose Arguelles decides that the beginning of the Mayan calendar, (3113 BCE in Gregorian terms) coincides with the beginning of "the history of civilization" (whatever the hell that's supposed to mean), then cherry-picks some similar dates from a couple of other religious traditions to "support" it, apparently to invest the Mayan calendar with an aura of authority. But stop and think about this: There are a million different prophecies, claims, and significant dates in the thousands of spiritual traditions on our planet, and one could find dates and prophecies that seem to agree on anything you want. A first year logic student could recognize this "reasoning" for what it is--the common fallacy known as the confirmation bias. The rest of his article, and all of the other 2012 material I saw on the 'Net, is based on a lovely structure of similar fallacies, as substantial as a tower of pink frosting on a foundation of--smoke and mirrors! I wish Jose Arguelles would stick to painting his beautiful mandalas, which I have always loved, instead of fleecing the flock with complex but empty New Age sophistry!

Another example of the evasive fuzziness involved: The New Age hawkers are yelling "2012! 2012! It's hugely important! Something revolutionary is gonna happen!" and even more specifically "December 21st, 2012! December 21st, 2012!" with a clear implication that those dates are important, but when asked what will happen, they can't specify a thing (or if they do, they are contradicted by other proponents who are predicting something different--"The Earth's magnetic poles will flip!" "No, you're wrong, we'll all be united in one global telepathic consciousness!" "No, you're both wrong, it's gonna be an asteroid impact!" "You're all wrong, infidels, it's gonna be Armageddon!"), AND, after hawking these specific dates, they refuse to guarantee that anything will happen on them! "Well, it (whatever 'it' is) will happen sometime before then", or "between 2011 and 2016", or whatever. So both the claims of what will happen and the time when it will happen are ridiculously vague and contradictory. The result: no matter what does or doesn't happen, the 2012 proponents, like the Harmonic Convergence hucksters and so many others before them, will claim they were right, and the believers will learn nothing about their own gullibility, and we will continue to sink deeper into a morass of superstition instead of dealing realistically with the huge global challenges that face us. This makes me sad and angry.

Without going into detail here for the sake of conciseness, I also have a problem with the notion that ancient Mayans could somehow know the future. I used to believe in psychic powers, including precognition, but had to drop those beliefs when I learned to think a little more clearly and realized my beliefs had been based on fallacious logic. So, if precognition is being invoked here, the 2012 proponents have a huge burden of proof to make that believable. If on the other hand the claim is that they were able to predict the future astrologically, we still have the same problem, as astrology is one of the most thoroughly debunked superstitions in history.

Woo woo can be explained all scientifically. It is all the same, just a different way of looking at what we call reality.

There was a time when I would have agreed with you on that, Debra. I believed in ghosts, UFO's, psychic powers, etc., and thought that skeptics were nonbelievers just because they were closedminded, Republican, tight-assed dipshits. Then something happened: I became more open-minded! Instead of just reading the true believer material, I opened myself to the other side and, lo and behold, the skeptics won me over! This brings us back to your wise exhortation from your earlier post: "I caution you around going off about it until you really study it". If you reject the skeptical position prior to really learning what it is, you're violating your own rule.

Very occasionally, "woowoo' stuff turns out to be true. For instance, I think it was Jack Kornfield who finally convinced Western scientists that Indian fakirs really could control bodily functions previously thought to be autonomic, by sticking a knitting needle through his cheeks and then mentally stopping the blood flow under controlled testing conditions. Note that the scientists changed their minds, admitting they'd been wrong when they were finally shown good evidence! Science is the most correctable system of thought in the world; in fact, correctability is its main stock in trade! When was the last time you heard of a New Ager, or for that matter a traditional religionist, admitting they were mistaken about their belief? Are you open to the possibility that you're mistaken about 2012 or other beliefs, Debra? If so, what kind of argument would change your mind?

But most woowoo stuff is rejected by science because the evidence for it is really, really crappy--not scientific evidence, but PSEUDOscientific. Unfortunately, most people, even intelligent folks like yourself, lack the specific kind of knowledge necessary to distinguish science from pseudoscience, so they get really angry at science for not validating their pet beliefs. It appears to me from what I've seen so far that the 2012 claims are probably supported by pseudoscience rather than science. I'd be willing to bet you that the movie doesn't include a single skeptical voice. That ain't science, Debra.

And it is a time now in our culture, when science and metaphysics are coming to the same point.

Ha--you wish! You and all the other New Agers. Everyone wants the respect accorded to science, but few are willing to submit their beliefs to the arduous standards that form the basis of science's validity, especially since that means dropping the beliefs when they don't meet the standards. And that, I think, is why claims like the 2012 claims are so shifty and vague. People have a strong emotional need for the comfort such beliefs afford, and will bend over backwards to exempt their beliefs from any kind of real test that could show them if they're mistaken. I guarantee you that many who are reading these words right now are disgusted with me for challenging their beliefs, and will grab onto any excuse to ignore my arguments--"Dixon's just closedminded", "Dixon's not as sensitive to Cosmic Truth as I am", "I won't listen to this patriarchal oppression", and blablabla. As an ex-fundamentalist Christian, I've said this before and I'll say it again: the degree of closedmindedness and the logical fallacies used to bolster cherished beliefs are essentially the same in the New Age community as they are in the fundie churches.

Perhaps you're more openminded than most, Debra. Do you want to APPROPRIATELY claim the mantle of science for your beliefs such as the 2012 claims? Then you must do what scientists do: Develop a falsifiable hypothesis, a test that won't just automatically confirm your belief, but will actually disconfirm it if it's untrue. Submit your test design to criticism by those who disagree with you until you all agree that it's a fair test (not a pseudo-test that's guaranteed to support your belief even if it's bogus), and commit yourself to accepting the outcome. Anything less is pseudoscience at best.

...My mission has always been to provide information resources and community connection around personal and planetary growth, so people can decide for themselves what is best. And that is what I will keep doing.

I honor that. But from what I've seen thus far, your information resources and community connection have been pretty one-sided, resulting in people wasting time and energy on a lot of woowoo stuff that they could see through with a little education in critical thinking. As a lazy guy, I'm envious of your energy and drive. I'd sure like to see you focus your beautiful energy on more substantial ways to improve the world, like political organizing or real education as opposed to promoting pseudoscientific or woowoo "solutions".

As always, I'm still open to the 2012 trip, but of course will need something more substantial than fuzzy smoke and mirrors before I can possibly see it as anything other than a money-making feelgood power fantasy. My proposed bet from my previous post still stands.

Always loving you Dixon and you rattle the cage. Keep on rattling.

Thank you, Debra, you beautiful hunk of luscious womanhood--I need all the love I can get. We all do. I hope you understand that my skepticism comes from a conviction that our best bet for a livable, peaceful, free and just planet, with more love and less brutality, lies in heartful rationality.

Love always;

Dixon

[Clancy]

Dixon, twice in one day you have deeply impressed me, and I don't impress easily. If you're not writing a book on this very subject, you should be.

I admire your tenacity, but every time you treat us to this very important thesis, I think about a stunning psychology study from the late 80's that showed that when people are presented with solid scientific evidence that contradicts or refutes a belief they have an emotional investment in, not only does it not change their mind, it further entrenches them in their belief. AND, the greater the emotional investment, the greater the effect.

So, write on my friend, if it makes you feel better (I know it does me), but I hope you're not too attached to changing very many minds.

I hope you understand that my skepticism comes from a conviction that our best bet for a livable, peaceful, free and just planet, with more love and less brutality, lies in heartful rationality.

[Dixon]

Dixon, twice in one day you have deeply impressed me, and I don't impress easily...

Clancy, thanks again for your kindness. Such appreciation means more to me than you realize. I have been going through a hellish midlife career/identity crisis which has me doubting whether I have anything much to offer the world. In fact, a few months ago I was shocked to find myself considering putting a bullet through my head, something I never seriously considered before! So you see, every bit of encouragement helps.

I admire your tenacity, but every time you treat us to this very important thesis, I think about a stunning psychology study from the late 80's that showed that when people are presented with solid scientific evidence that contradicts or refutes a belief they have an emotional investment in, not only does it not change their mind, it further entrenches them in their belief. AND, the greater the emotional investment, the greater the effect.

That's depressing, but not surprising. It's consistent with my observations.

Back in the 90's, I was a presenter several years in a row at the International Conference on Critical Thinking. Of the several topics I presented on, the most popular was "Reasoning with Irrational People". I decided to write a book on it, and did some research and made an outline. But I finally admitted to myself that nobody, including me, is very good at reasoning with irrational people. This is because most irrationality is not due to a lack of capacity for rationality; rather, we allow ourselves fallacious thinking as armor against painful truths and justification for desired illusions. And irrationality is unbeatable; even the best argument cannot penetrate a wall of closedminded irrationality. So I gave up on writing that book.

Nevertheless, I have seen that there are a few instances in which people who have some degree of openmindedness can be swayed by reasonable argument, even if it takes an accumulation of such argument over a period of years. So I continue to cast my seeds onto the fields in hopes of finding an occasional patch of fertile ground. It's better than giving up entirely, and I do think it's realistic hope.

I admit that my rap about the 2012 thang is unlikely to sway anyone, as that kind of belief tends to attract closedminded, rigidly-defended types who are actively hostile to rationality, but you never can tell--someone might pleasantly surprise me.

And of course, it's always possible that I'm wrong, in which case initiating such a discourse opens the possibility that I can be corrected by someone. If I weren't open to that, I wouldn't be very rational myself, would I? AND, I'd still be a Mormon, or a fundie--or a New Ager, LOL!

Love;

Dixon

[Clancy]

...I have seen that there are a few instances in which people who have some degree of openmindedness can be swayed by reasonable argument, even if it takes an accumulation of such argument over a period of years. So I continue to cast my seeds onto the fields in hopes of finding an occasional patch of fertile ground. It's better than giving up entirely, and I do think it's realistic hope...

I think it's a realistic hope too, and those few fertile minds you touch may mean more to the world than we can imagine. Humanity sorely needs 'heartful rationality', I'm glad you're still here to so beautifully express why.

[Barry]

Regarding 2012, sure, it's not provable in a scientific way. That doesn't mean that it's not true, it just can't be proven. Might be true, and it might not be true. If it were true then it's just about a shifting of energy, that might express in any way, and probably pretty subtly over long periods of time.

And in this case in particular, as to my understanding, 2012 is just the end of the calendar. What that means to us is up for interpretation. It could the End or the Beginning or just another day/epoch.

However, since alot of what happens inside us, and then motivates our behavior, is based on how we react to a given stimuli, rather that just the stimuli itself. So it doesn't really matter if something is scientifically provable as truth. Just the belief itself can shift things. Call it a quantum effect or a placebo effect, things can and do shift.

And I remind you, that just because it isn't provable, doesn't mean it isn't true.

The Harmonic Convergence was big for me. My life shifted around that time. It also seemed like the world shifted more than usual during that time (Cold War and Apartheid ending...). Who knows whether it was connected to the Harmonic Convergence or not. It seems clear to me that my shifts were connected to my belief that something was happening, again whether or not something actually shifted in the Universe.

So I suggest holding such things in a more agnostic fashion rather so skeptically.

[ThePhiant]

And I remind you, that just because it isn't provable, doesn't mean it isn't true.

ROTFLOL
I hope Dixie doesn't get a hold of THAT statement.
it's the fuel for an atheist's fire

ignorance is bliss

[Alex]

Dixon,
My skepticism about 2012 changed a lot after watching Ian Lungold's lecture on myspace explaining the Mayan calendar. It's I think about 3 hours in two parts and you can find it here:

https://profile.myspace.com/index.cf...endid=54007714

I'd be interested in your thoughts if you find it interesting enough to get through.
Alex

[Alex]

Oops, this link is a lot better:
https://video.google.com/videoplay?d...90121097&hl=en

Dixon,
My skepticism about 2012 changed a lot after watching Ian Lungold's lecture on myspace explaining the Mayan calendar. It's I think about 3 hours in two parts and you can find it here:

https://profile.myspace.com/index.cf...endid=54007714

I'd be interested in your thoughts if you find it interesting enough to get through.
Alex

[Dixon]

tarexi;

Thanks for the link. Providing info is the kind of thing that's useful in sorting the wheat from the chaff (or, for those allergic to wheat, sorting the kashi from the...um...wheat?).

Unfortunately, I'm a techno-Neanderthal, and lack the capability to download the proffered material. My 56k modem takes FOREVER to download stuff, and often simply fails. As a result, I miss out on nearly all the cool videos and music, and even many of the photos, that people send me. And my financial reality is such that I can't remotely afford an upgrade in the foreseeable future.

If anyone has videos, etc. on 2012 (or any subject; I'm interested in nearly everything) that they want me to come over and watch with them, I'll bring the popcorn. Likewise if you just want to talk. I like relating person-to-person; it feels "warmer", and requires less damn typing! Feel free to proselytize your favorite beliefs to me. I will either tell you specifically why the arguments aren't convincing, or, if I can't refute them, I will at least tentatively adopt the belief! You can't get a better deal than that. It's called open-minded rationality (the only real kind). And no, I'm not perfect at it by a long shot.

I would consider hosting some kind of discussion at my own place, but it's too small and shamefully messy; I'm a lousy housekeeper.

Thanks again for reaching out;

Dixon

Oops, this link is a lot better:
https://video.google.com/videoplay?d...90121097&hl=en

[ThePhiant]

so this is my chance to get $10.000 out of somebody who believes in not believing what somebody else believes.

Dixie,
very carefully, using critical thinking,I read your conditions, (see your post below)

1. My prediction will be that at least 1 person (but upward to 10.000 or more people) will have experienced or felt the shift in energy that comes from entering a new age
2. that $10.000 will go into my pocket and change my status
3. your public apology will be the major event for me on that day

this is going to be the best X-mas ever
I know you are going to try to squirm out of this one, and make some new rules. But i think you should start saving up some money.
after all it is only $1 per believer!!!
How many days to Payday? 1577 days? 53 months?

Oh and your ignore ThePhiant feature doesn't protect you legally,
you made a public challenge, and I am taking you up on it!

Okay, here's your chance to tell me "I told you so" when the predicted event comes true: Make one or more predictions about what will happen on December 21st, 2012--predictions that are specific enough so that the events of that day will clearly confirm or disconfirm them, significant enough to be worth all your hype, and unusual enough that we can't expect them to happen in the usual course of events. Bet me whatever amount of money you want to bet on it. If you win, I pay up and publicly apologize for doubting your wisdom. If I win, you pay up and promise to take a course in basic critical thinking, which I will teach for free. Fair enough? C'mon, don't be shy, step right up!

I hereby offer this bet to everyone, and I am not kidding, folks.

Blessings;

Dixon