titanblue
05-23-2020, 10:05 PM
West County. Do we know where in West County? I would like to know.
...1 of the 23 reported tonight was a West County resident....
...1 of the 23 reported tonight was a West County resident....
View Full Version : Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers
Goat Rock Ukulele
05-24-2020, 10:02 AM
No, at this point they don't report by town or address.
West County. Do we know where in West County? I would like to know.
West County. Do we know where in West County? I would like to know.
Goat Rock Ukulele
05-24-2020, 03:18 PM
May 23
4948015 New Cases reported in Sonoma County
5 of those cases were in West County residents. Even though we are opening up (what ever that means) Covid 19 is not letting up . I expect we will see a rise in cases here in Sonoma County and around the country. We will be doing good if the County can contact trace, test and isolate.
CDC says fairly low rate of transmission from surfaces. Doesn't mean to stop washing your hands and start touching your face. Keep doing that. It does mean that inhalation of the virus is by far the way most people become infected. We need cooperation from everyone to wear masks in public. It has not been helpful that the president seems to be igniting a New Anti Mask League among his followers. Same stupid arguments were made by the 1918 Anti Mask League.
4948015 New Cases reported in Sonoma County
5 of those cases were in West County residents. Even though we are opening up (what ever that means) Covid 19 is not letting up . I expect we will see a rise in cases here in Sonoma County and around the country. We will be doing good if the County can contact trace, test and isolate.
CDC says fairly low rate of transmission from surfaces. Doesn't mean to stop washing your hands and start touching your face. Keep doing that. It does mean that inhalation of the virus is by far the way most people become infected. We need cooperation from everyone to wear masks in public. It has not been helpful that the president seems to be igniting a New Anti Mask League among his followers. Same stupid arguments were made by the 1918 Anti Mask League.
seedavelee
05-25-2020, 07:54 AM
I was at Sebastopol's farmers market yesterday and although most people were wearing masks and keeping the distancing there were small groups that weren't. I was part of one of the groups that weren't (although I was) and became aware of mostly women in this group that decided not to, IE., proactive in coming into another's space without a mask, hugging, etc.
I couldn't believe it and my story was, they must be deprived of touch/ connection and well...off with these precautions!
I couldn't believe it and my story was, they must be deprived of touch/ connection and well...off with these precautions!
sealwatcher
05-25-2020, 08:57 AM
First, want to express gratitude to Goat Rock Ukelele for keeping us up to date daily with posts on our county's now growing number of cases.
I too was at the farm market yesterday and while I didn't see what seedavelee saw, now seems a good time to remind that you can order and pick up from the farm market, avoiding people acting thoughtlessly.
I was at Sebastopol's farmers market yesterday and ...
I too was at the farm market yesterday and while I didn't see what seedavelee saw, now seems a good time to remind that you can order and pick up from the farm market, avoiding people acting thoughtlessly.
I was at Sebastopol's farmers market yesterday and ...
Goat Rock Ukulele
05-25-2020, 10:25 AM
It sounds more like they are deprived of brains. Studies show that mask wearing can cut infection rates by up to 75% with Covid-19. If a drug was discovered that could do that the stock value of that company would surge 600%. It would be world news for a month.
I was at Sebastopol's farmers market yesterday ... they must be deprived of touch/ connection and well...off with these precautions!
I was at Sebastopol's farmers market yesterday ... they must be deprived of touch/ connection and well...off with these precautions!
Jon Jackson
05-25-2020, 10:49 AM
The impression I'm getting, all over the country, is that people have basically decided to switch from Shelter-In-Place to the Herd Immunity model, consequences be damned. It's exactly what happened in 1918, including the refusal to wear masks because it's an infringement on "freedom." I feel sad for what's about to happen. As a physician, I've worked hard all this time to find accurate information and make practical recommendations. I feel now like all I can do is sit back and watch Chapter Two, with a deep sigh and a welcome glass of wine.
Goat Rock Ukulele
05-25-2020, 11:14 AM
49486May 24
18 New Cases reported in Sonoma County
70% of the people who have been infected in Sonoma County have no preexisting conditions.
It is possible to get the R naught under 1 with mask wearing in public and physical distancing alone. The Asian countries have all been able to do this. If we are unable because of our culture perhaps we should change that part of our culture at least during pandemics. The Governor of North Dakota was moved to tears while defending people who were being ridiculed and pushed around for WEARING a mask. Mask wearing has somehow become hugely political. That is so sad because it will cost many US citizens their lives.
18 New Cases reported in Sonoma County
70% of the people who have been infected in Sonoma County have no preexisting conditions.
It is possible to get the R naught under 1 with mask wearing in public and physical distancing alone. The Asian countries have all been able to do this. If we are unable because of our culture perhaps we should change that part of our culture at least during pandemics. The Governor of North Dakota was moved to tears while defending people who were being ridiculed and pushed around for WEARING a mask. Mask wearing has somehow become hugely political. That is so sad because it will cost many US citizens their lives.
wildinspired
05-25-2020, 11:58 AM
I finally got up my courage and went for a walk with a friend the other day. I've been strictly sheltered in place since end of February. I wore my mask and my friend did too, until we were well on our way. I was then asked if it would be ok for the mask to be removed and I said yes...I believe I responded out of fear of being judged, of being perceived as too careful, or paranoid.
I regret that I wasn't able to maintain my "no" in that moment. I feel angry at myself for this! I am clear about the value of masks. I appreciate this post as very supportive to my sensibilities. I'm resetting my inner and outer boundaries around asking for what I feel is important and caring behavior for my situation, as an older woman with underlying health conditions. I feel this mask wearing to be an action that is about caring for ourselves and for others, for caring about the health of our communities. I see it as a responsibility of care.
I regret that I wasn't able to maintain my "no" in that moment. I feel angry at myself for this! I am clear about the value of masks. I appreciate this post as very supportive to my sensibilities. I'm resetting my inner and outer boundaries around asking for what I feel is important and caring behavior for my situation, as an older woman with underlying health conditions. I feel this mask wearing to be an action that is about caring for ourselves and for others, for caring about the health of our communities. I see it as a responsibility of care.
Barry
05-25-2020, 12:26 PM
I finally got up my courage and went for a walk with a friend the other day...
My understanding is that if you are outside and keeping a 6 foot distance, there if very little risk (but above zero) of being with others not wearing a mask. I'll venture to say that your risk at that point of experiencing a health issue from that is comparable from having a "health issue" due to driving to your hike.
My understanding is that if you are outside and keeping a 6 foot distance, there if very little risk (but above zero) of being with others not wearing a mask. I'll venture to say that your risk at that point of experiencing a health issue from that is comparable from having a "health issue" due to driving to your hike.
wildinspired
05-25-2020, 12:56 PM
Thanks for your response Barry. I understand what you are saying here. But, there is still so little known about this virus, and the safety precaution suggestions are changing all the time. So I don't entirely trust what we are being told...plus I understand that the aerosol from our breath, even when talking, can travel way farther than 6 feet. I see also that the cases are rising in Sonoma County. Plus, I am in a high risk group! Call me overreacting...but I need, and we all do, to take care of ourselves and each other as we see fit.
My understanding is that if you are outside and keeping a 6 foot distance, there if very little risk (but above zero) ...
My understanding is that if you are outside and keeping a 6 foot distance, there if very little risk (but above zero) ...
gypsey
05-25-2020, 04:18 PM
Everyone learns in different ways and for a large percentage, only direct results that affect them personally will be a "teachable moment." This is what happened in 1918 and thus the lethal second wave.
too was at the farm market yesterday and while I didn't see what seedavelee saw, now seems a good time to remind that you can order and pick up from the farm market, avoiding people acting thoughtlessly.
too was at the farm market yesterday and while I didn't see what seedavelee saw, now seems a good time to remind that you can order and pick up from the farm market, avoiding people acting thoughtlessly.
wildinspired
05-25-2020, 04:23 PM
I'd much appreciate to know how to order ahead and pick up at the market?
Thanks
... now seems a good time to remind that you can order and pick up from the farm market...
Thanks
... now seems a good time to remind that you can order and pick up from the farm market...
sealwatcher
05-25-2020, 05:28 PM
I'll be contacting the farm market this week to find out how to do this. On Sunday I saw a number of packages ready to be delivered curbside. I'll go to the website for the Sebastopol farm market and find out how to do this. I suggest you do the same. Avoid the crowding and keep our local farmers going!
I'd much appreciate to know how to order ahead and pick up at the market?
I'd much appreciate to know how to order ahead and pick up at the market?
Goat Rock Ukulele
05-26-2020, 10:15 PM
49494May 26
9 New Cases Tonight, I took a day off yesterday there were 15 cases on the 25th. The virus never sleeps.
After that burst of 5 cases in West County there were none on the 25th or tonight.
The percentage of Hispanics who have contracted the virus in our county is now up to 70% of all cases. The hispanic population of the county tends to be much younger and have few added risk factors so outcomes are generally better with fewer hospitalizations.
Open it all up........not so fast says our health officer Dr Mase. Our health officials are seeing some things they don't like. https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/10988060-181/sonoma-county-health-officer-puts
9 New Cases Tonight, I took a day off yesterday there were 15 cases on the 25th. The virus never sleeps.
After that burst of 5 cases in West County there were none on the 25th or tonight.
The percentage of Hispanics who have contracted the virus in our county is now up to 70% of all cases. The hispanic population of the county tends to be much younger and have few added risk factors so outcomes are generally better with fewer hospitalizations.
Open it all up........not so fast says our health officer Dr Mase. Our health officials are seeing some things they don't like. https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/10988060-181/sonoma-county-health-officer-puts
Goat Rock Ukulele
05-27-2020, 11:12 PM
May 27
6 New cases tonight. None were in West County.
6 New cases tonight. None were in West County.
Finell
05-28-2020, 01:38 AM
Thank you for continuing to report the latest Sonoma County COVID-19 statistics.
Yesterday's numbers are crazy. The county reports that, in the last 24 hours, the number of recovered cases declined by 200. How is that possible? What does that even mean?
The cumulative total of COVID-19 cases should be the sum of active cases (304), recovered cases (22), and deaths (4). That sum is 330. But Sonoma County reports the total cases as 530. If you disregard the inexplicable, impossible reduction of recovered cases by 200, that brings the recovered cases to 222. And voila! 304 active cases, plus 222 recovered cases, plus 4 deaths, equals the reported total of 530 cases.
What is going on here??
Yesterday's numbers are crazy. The county reports that, in the last 24 hours, the number of recovered cases declined by 200. How is that possible? What does that even mean?
The cumulative total of COVID-19 cases should be the sum of active cases (304), recovered cases (22), and deaths (4). That sum is 330. But Sonoma County reports the total cases as 530. If you disregard the inexplicable, impossible reduction of recovered cases by 200, that brings the recovered cases to 222. And voila! 304 active cases, plus 222 recovered cases, plus 4 deaths, equals the reported total of 530 cases.
What is going on here??
seedavelee
05-28-2020, 07:53 AM
I've been suspicious of the numbers being "fudged" on a national level with the country reopening and well, here is some proof from Politico (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/27/bad-state-coronavirus-data-trump-reopening-286143).
Goat Rock Ukulele
05-28-2020, 10:23 AM
As you can see from the chart. They must have made an error on the number of recovered. Most likely a keyboard error. These folks are working long hours.
...Yesterday's numbers are crazy. ...What is going on here??
...Yesterday's numbers are crazy. ...What is going on here??
Goat Rock Ukulele
05-28-2020, 11:32 PM
49511May 28
1 New Case Tonight.
After a a week of higher case numbers it's good to only have a single case in Sonoma County reported. Case was not in the West County.
They seem to have taken the cases in the last 24 hours off the dashboard below. And it says 3 deaths in the last 24 hours but the total deaths has not changed. The other place I look at does not show any additional deaths, nor do local news sources. I hope that is a reporting error.
1 New Case Tonight.
After a a week of higher case numbers it's good to only have a single case in Sonoma County reported. Case was not in the West County.
They seem to have taken the cases in the last 24 hours off the dashboard below. And it says 3 deaths in the last 24 hours but the total deaths has not changed. The other place I look at does not show any additional deaths, nor do local news sources. I hope that is a reporting error.
Goat Rock Ukulele
05-29-2020, 10:51 PM
49519May 29
17 New cases reported in Sonoma County tonight.
1 of the 17 was a West County resident.
17 New cases reported in Sonoma County tonight.
1 of the 17 was a West County resident.
Goat Rock Ukulele
05-30-2020, 01:17 PM
I won't post these hospital utilization charts every night. You can follow them at this link (https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/1edbb41952a8417385652279305e878d/page/page_23/).
It seems we are pretty good on ventilators but don't have a lot of headroom on ICU beds.
49520
It seems we are pretty good on ventilators but don't have a lot of headroom on ICU beds.
49520
Barry
05-30-2020, 01:48 PM
ICU beds is where the rubber meets the road! Numbers of new cases is not that informative because as testing increases "new" cases will increase.
Remember the key reason for the lock down was the flatten the curve so our medical system is not overwhelmed. To me, that's not controversial. Trying to flatten the curve/suppression beyond that is up for debate.
Given that our testing is still not up to the level that it can reliable catch a systemic outbreak, it also makes sense to keep things relatively locked down until the testing infrastructure is up to snuff.
But the real measurement of how bad things are is at the ICU. The only problem is that by then, it too late to address
Remember the key reason for the lock down was the flatten the curve so our medical system is not overwhelmed. To me, that's not controversial. Trying to flatten the curve/suppression beyond that is up for debate.
Given that our testing is still not up to the level that it can reliable catch a systemic outbreak, it also makes sense to keep things relatively locked down until the testing infrastructure is up to snuff.
But the real measurement of how bad things are is at the ICU. The only problem is that by then, it too late to address
Dustyg
05-30-2020, 02:05 PM
I ordered a book from Copperfield's and picked it up around 10:45 am. I parked around the corner and walked over, and I must have seen about a dozen people downtown, in various groups or alone, and NO ONE besides me was wearing a mask...What are people thinking?
wisewomn
05-30-2020, 02:26 PM
Clearly, they're not, Dusty. :-(
I ordered a book from Copperfield's ...What are people thinking?
I ordered a book from Copperfield's ...What are people thinking?
podfish
05-30-2020, 02:51 PM
...What are people thinking?for some reason I've been thinking about George Carlin's routine, on how being drunk changes your priorities.. "I don't care about my shoes.... <barf...>...".
No, only me??
but really, I think a few weeks of this is pushing several people to the point where it just doesn't feel worth it. If you ask them, I'm sure they'll come up with some explanation -- but I think it's really just that it seems too much for too long. It's consistent with human nature. We just don't stick to behaviors that are "good for us", or take uncomfortable actions if they can be avoided, or ignore bad things as they develop. You can see it from the rise of Nazism to the ongoing issue with the climate. I'm frankly surprised the world's shut down as much as it has, for even this long.</barf...>
No, only me??
but really, I think a few weeks of this is pushing several people to the point where it just doesn't feel worth it. If you ask them, I'm sure they'll come up with some explanation -- but I think it's really just that it seems too much for too long. It's consistent with human nature. We just don't stick to behaviors that are "good for us", or take uncomfortable actions if they can be avoided, or ignore bad things as they develop. You can see it from the rise of Nazism to the ongoing issue with the climate. I'm frankly surprised the world's shut down as much as it has, for even this long.</barf...>
Goat Rock Ukulele
05-31-2020, 12:24 PM
49524May 30
5 New cases last night. None were in West County.
5 New cases last night. None were in West County.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-01-2020, 10:02 AM
49526May 31
11 New cases reported in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County. 82 active cases were declared recovered.
11 New cases reported in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County. 82 active cases were declared recovered.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-02-2020, 01:13 PM
49536June 1
2 New Cases reported last night. None were in West County.
I wonder if we get a spike after the protests. Yelling in close proximity seems a good way to spread this disease.
2 New Cases reported last night. None were in West County.
I wonder if we get a spike after the protests. Yelling in close proximity seems a good way to spread this disease.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-03-2020, 01:12 PM
49544June 2
13 New cases last night. None in West County. Hispanics are now 72% of all cases.
Sonoma County Beaches are open. State Beaches will be open this weekend. https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/11006083-181/sonoma-county-beaches-to-open
13 New cases last night. None in West County. Hispanics are now 72% of all cases.
Sonoma County Beaches are open. State Beaches will be open this weekend. https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/11006083-181/sonoma-county-beaches-to-open
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-04-2020, 10:00 AM
49545June 3
14 new cases reported last night. None were West County.
Only 5% of Sonoma County cases are West County Residents.
14 new cases reported last night. None were West County.
Only 5% of Sonoma County cases are West County Residents.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-04-2020, 11:48 AM
9.7% of Sonoma County residents live in West County. With 5% of Sonoma County Cases we have roughly half the infection rate of the rest of the county.
gypsey
06-04-2020, 04:49 PM
That;s nice to hear...but folks, we know that more densely populated areas of our county are adversely affected
In addition to our homeless, we know that Hispanics are adversely affected....and let's face it, they are the economic engine of our vineyards. I'd like to know what vineyards are doing to combat, test, and care.
9.7% of Sonoma County residents live in West County. With 5% of Sonoma County Cases we have roughly half the infection rate of the rest of the county.
In addition to our homeless, we know that Hispanics are adversely affected....and let's face it, they are the economic engine of our vineyards. I'd like to know what vineyards are doing to combat, test, and care.
9.7% of Sonoma County residents live in West County. With 5% of Sonoma County Cases we have roughly half the infection rate of the rest of the county.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-04-2020, 07:29 PM
It's tough for winery workers. A lot of them have to ride together. Just about the easiest way to transfer this virus is to ride in the same car with someone who has it, Mask or no mask being in that confined airspace is bad news.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-05-2020, 12:59 PM
49546June 4
17 New cases reported last night. 2 of the 17 were West County Residents
Antibody testing to begin in Sonoma County with goal of testing 3500
https://patch.com/california/healdsburg/coronavirus-antibody-testing-begin-sonoma-county
17 New cases reported last night. 2 of the 17 were West County Residents
Antibody testing to begin in Sonoma County with goal of testing 3500
https://patch.com/california/healdsburg/coronavirus-antibody-testing-begin-sonoma-county
Jude Iam
06-05-2020, 11:45 PM
so,
what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity...
so we ought to be maxxing tests and letting people rip roar around, cept for folks who were old or sick or both.
i mean, curve is beyond flattened, so,... what? jude
what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity...
so we ought to be maxxing tests and letting people rip roar around, cept for folks who were old or sick or both.
i mean, curve is beyond flattened, so,... what? jude
rossmen
06-06-2020, 12:54 AM
Covid cases are reported by residence address. So the economic segregation of west county suppresses the count here. Seebasstoepull has the highest age and white race demographic of every city in sonoma county. We are privileged by statistics.
9.7% of Sonoma County residents live in West County. With 5% of Sonoma County Cases we have roughly half the infection rate of the rest of the county.
9.7% of Sonoma County residents live in West County. With 5% of Sonoma County Cases we have roughly half the infection rate of the rest of the county.
Barry
06-06-2020, 11:56 AM
So, with your typical civic-minded conviction, you're going to go out and "rip roar around"?
so,
what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity...
so we ought to be maxxing tests and letting people rip roar around, cept for folks who were old or sick or both.
i mean, curve is beyond flattened, so,... what? jude
so,
what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity...
so we ought to be maxxing tests and letting people rip roar around, cept for folks who were old or sick or both.
i mean, curve is beyond flattened, so,... what? jude
Jude Iam
06-06-2020, 12:19 PM
would you mind focusing on my question, barry?
and your little dig is both uncalled for and unappreciated.
my posts are expressly for 'civic-minded conviction' but that seems to have eluded you.
i am surprised at this public slur and surmise that you attribute my motivation for posting about the virus situation, amongst other things, is lack of civic mindedness. quite stunning. i'll have to process that to respond further.
jude
So, with your typical civic-minded conviction, you're going to go out and "rip roar around"?
and your little dig is both uncalled for and unappreciated.
my posts are expressly for 'civic-minded conviction' but that seems to have eluded you.
i am surprised at this public slur and surmise that you attribute my motivation for posting about the virus situation, amongst other things, is lack of civic mindedness. quite stunning. i'll have to process that to respond further.
jude
So, with your typical civic-minded conviction, you're going to go out and "rip roar around"?
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-06-2020, 02:34 PM
49549June 5
14 New Cases last night in Sonoma County. None were in West County.
They are testing everyone at the jail. Someone at the jail came down with Covid-19.
We have too many people in jail, more than almost any other country per capita.
14 New Cases last night in Sonoma County. None were in West County.
They are testing everyone at the jail. Someone at the jail came down with Covid-19.
We have too many people in jail, more than almost any other country per capita.
phredo
06-06-2020, 02:46 PM
When listening to the health officer last week, it sounded like the IC rooms were a bottleneck point, and there aren't that many of them. Be good to hear how that's going.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-06-2020, 02:54 PM
You are definitely right about that. You can follow hospital metrics here https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/1edbb41952a8417385652279305e878d/page/page_23/
As of now there are 14 ICU beds available. A couple of serious car wrecks and that could go to zero.
When listening to the health officer last week, it sounded like the IC rooms were a bottleneck point, and there aren't that many of them. Be good to hear how that's going.
As of now there are 14 ICU beds available. A couple of serious car wrecks and that could go to zero.
When listening to the health officer last week, it sounded like the IC rooms were a bottleneck point, and there aren't that many of them. Be good to hear how that's going.
Barry
06-06-2020, 03:14 PM
would you mind focusing on my question, barry?...
That's what I was doing. You posted:
what we want is maximum number of cases, right?
Am I missing something? Were you kidding? I took you at your word, and as I understand it, your POV is that vaccines are evil, and the right answer is to get to "fabled herd immunity" which means that letting most everyone get infected (even though we don't know if that provides immunity) and since our "curve is beyond flattened", now would be a great time to get infected.
What am I missing?
so,
what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity...
so we ought to be maxxing tests and letting people rip roar around, cept for folks who were old or sick or both.
i mean, curve is beyond flattened, so,... what? jude
That's what I was doing. You posted:
what we want is maximum number of cases, right?
Am I missing something? Were you kidding? I took you at your word, and as I understand it, your POV is that vaccines are evil, and the right answer is to get to "fabled herd immunity" which means that letting most everyone get infected (even though we don't know if that provides immunity) and since our "curve is beyond flattened", now would be a great time to get infected.
What am I missing?
so,
what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity...
so we ought to be maxxing tests and letting people rip roar around, cept for folks who were old or sick or both.
i mean, curve is beyond flattened, so,... what? jude
geomancer
06-06-2020, 03:45 PM
so,
what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity...
so we ought to be maxxing tests and letting people rip roar around, cept for folks who were old or sick or both.
i mean, curve is beyond flattened, so,... what? jude
No Jude, a slow trickle of cases that does not swamp our hospitals and, especially, the ICU's is what we want.
what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity...
so we ought to be maxxing tests and letting people rip roar around, cept for folks who were old or sick or both.
i mean, curve is beyond flattened, so,... what? jude
No Jude, a slow trickle of cases that does not swamp our hospitals and, especially, the ICU's is what we want.
gypsey
06-06-2020, 05:38 PM
Sweden tried that. We know what happened.
so,
what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity.....
so,
what we want is maximum number of cases, right? to get to the fabled herd immunity.....
Jude Iam
06-06-2020, 09:27 PM
well, barry, richard, fred, maria and all who will stay 6' / masked / locked down till you get vaccinated, if you read this and understand it, it is simply madness/mass hysteria that would induce you to continue, unless you're over 80 and sick. jude
LOCKDOWN LUNACY: the thinking person's guide (https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/lockdownlunacy)
By J.B. Handley
May 30
https://www.waccobb.net/forums/waccobb/keep90days/2020-06-07_09-57-54.pngFor anyone willing to look, there are so many facts that tell the true story, and it goes something like this:
Knowing what we know today about COVID-19’s Infection Fatality Rate, asymmetric impact by age and medical condition, non-transmissibility by asymptomatic people and in outdoor settings, near-zero fatality rate for children, and the basic understanding of viruses through Farr’s law, locking down society was a bone-headed policy decision so devastating to society that historians may judge it as the all-time worst decision ever made. Worse, as these clear facts have become available, many policy-makers haven’t shifted their positions, despite the fact that every hour under any stage of lockdown has a domino-effect of devastation to society. Meanwhile, the media—with a few notable exceptions—is oddly silent on all the good news. Luckily, an unexpected group of heroes across the political landscape—many of them doctors and scientists—have emerged to tell the truth, despite facing extreme criticism and censorship from an angry mob desperate to continue fighting an imaginary war.
My goal is to engage in known facts. You, the reader, can decide if all of these facts, when you put them together, equate to the story above.
Fact #1: The Infection Fatality Rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.07-0.20%, in line with seasonal flu
The Infection fatality Rate math of ANY new virus ALWAYS declines over time as more data becomes available, as any virologist could tell you. In the early days of COVID-19 where we only had data from China, there was a fear that the IFR could be as high as 3.4%, which would indeed be cataclysmic. On April 17th, the first study was published from Stanford researchers (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf) that should have ended all lockdowns immediately, as the scientists reported that their research “implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases” and pegged the IFR between 0.12-0.2%. The researchers also speculated that the final IFR, as more data emerged, would likely “be lower.” For context, seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1%. Smallpox? 30%.
As the first study to peg the IFR, the Stanford study came under withering criticism, prompting the lead researcher, Dr. John Ioannidis to note,
“There’s some sort of mob mentality here operating that they just insist that this has to be the end of the world, and it has to be that the sky is falling. It’s attacking studies with data based on speculation and science fiction. But dismissing real data in favor of mathematical speculation is mind-boggling.”
Like all good science, the Stanford data on IFR has now been replicated so many times that our own Centers for Disease Control came out this week to announce that their ‘best estimate’ showed an IFR below 0.3%. In this article on the CDC’s new data (https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/), they also highlighted how the cascading declines in IFR has removed all the fears of doomsday:
Continues here (https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/lockdownlunacy)
Sweden tried that. We know what happened.
LOCKDOWN LUNACY: the thinking person's guide (https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/lockdownlunacy)
By J.B. Handley
May 30
https://www.waccobb.net/forums/waccobb/keep90days/2020-06-07_09-57-54.pngFor anyone willing to look, there are so many facts that tell the true story, and it goes something like this:
Knowing what we know today about COVID-19’s Infection Fatality Rate, asymmetric impact by age and medical condition, non-transmissibility by asymptomatic people and in outdoor settings, near-zero fatality rate for children, and the basic understanding of viruses through Farr’s law, locking down society was a bone-headed policy decision so devastating to society that historians may judge it as the all-time worst decision ever made. Worse, as these clear facts have become available, many policy-makers haven’t shifted their positions, despite the fact that every hour under any stage of lockdown has a domino-effect of devastation to society. Meanwhile, the media—with a few notable exceptions—is oddly silent on all the good news. Luckily, an unexpected group of heroes across the political landscape—many of them doctors and scientists—have emerged to tell the truth, despite facing extreme criticism and censorship from an angry mob desperate to continue fighting an imaginary war.
My goal is to engage in known facts. You, the reader, can decide if all of these facts, when you put them together, equate to the story above.
Fact #1: The Infection Fatality Rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.07-0.20%, in line with seasonal flu
The Infection fatality Rate math of ANY new virus ALWAYS declines over time as more data becomes available, as any virologist could tell you. In the early days of COVID-19 where we only had data from China, there was a fear that the IFR could be as high as 3.4%, which would indeed be cataclysmic. On April 17th, the first study was published from Stanford researchers (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf) that should have ended all lockdowns immediately, as the scientists reported that their research “implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases” and pegged the IFR between 0.12-0.2%. The researchers also speculated that the final IFR, as more data emerged, would likely “be lower.” For context, seasonal flu has an IFR of 0.1%. Smallpox? 30%.
As the first study to peg the IFR, the Stanford study came under withering criticism, prompting the lead researcher, Dr. John Ioannidis to note,
“There’s some sort of mob mentality here operating that they just insist that this has to be the end of the world, and it has to be that the sky is falling. It’s attacking studies with data based on speculation and science fiction. But dismissing real data in favor of mathematical speculation is mind-boggling.”
Like all good science, the Stanford data on IFR has now been replicated so many times that our own Centers for Disease Control came out this week to announce that their ‘best estimate’ showed an IFR below 0.3%. In this article on the CDC’s new data (https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/), they also highlighted how the cascading declines in IFR has removed all the fears of doomsday:
Continues here (https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/lockdownlunacy)
Sweden tried that. We know what happened.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-07-2020, 11:41 AM
49565June 6
18 Cases last night reported in Sonoma County. None were in West County.
ICU beds have been holding around 14 available and 53 in use. Napa county Covid numbers are on the rise.
18 Cases last night reported in Sonoma County. None were in West County.
ICU beds have been holding around 14 available and 53 in use. Napa county Covid numbers are on the rise.
Barry
06-07-2020, 12:23 PM
well, barry, richard, fred, maria and all who will stay 6' / masked / locked down till you get vaccinated, if you read this and understand it, it is simply madness/mass hysteria that would induce you to continue, unless you're over 80 and sick. jude
LOCKDOWN LUNACY: the thinking person's guide (https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/lockdownlunacy)
Got it. So again:
" (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133410-Sonoma-County-Covid-19-The-Numbers&p=235534#post235534)So, with your typical civic-minded conviction, you're going to go out and "rip roar around"?" (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133410-Sonoma-County-Covid-19-The-Numbers&p=235534#post235534) and not worry about getting infected or infecting others?
LOCKDOWN LUNACY: the thinking person's guide (https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/lockdownlunacy)
Got it. So again:
" (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133410-Sonoma-County-Covid-19-The-Numbers&p=235534#post235534)So, with your typical civic-minded conviction, you're going to go out and "rip roar around"?" (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133410-Sonoma-County-Covid-19-The-Numbers&p=235534#post235534) and not worry about getting infected or infecting others?
geomancer
06-07-2020, 12:45 PM
So we have 26% of the ICU beds available, plenty of slack for us to go rip-roaring-around, amirite Jude?
Jude Iam
06-07-2020, 12:54 PM
barry,
since you acknowledge that you don't read or watch much of what's posted here on this topic,
but continue to post and harangue, what's the point of dialoging with you? it's worthless.
you insult me with sarcasm about "typical civic-minded conviction (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133410-Sonoma-County-Covid-19-The-Numbers&p=235534#post235534)" as though i lacked it, but do not address my question of what your idea is of progressing from the state of masked, distanced, locked down other than getting the vaccine you await.
fatality rate is now acknowledged at .26% and that mostly elderly sick - less than usual flu. enormous amounts of data, bored with and tired of repeating. think for yourself or await further orders.
Got it. So again:
" (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133410-Sonoma-County-Covid-19-The-Numbers&p=235534#post235534)So, with your typical civic-minded conviction, you're going to go out and "rip roar around"?" (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133410-Sonoma-County-Covid-19-The-Numbers&p=235534#post235534) and not worry about getting infected or infecting others?
since you acknowledge that you don't read or watch much of what's posted here on this topic,
but continue to post and harangue, what's the point of dialoging with you? it's worthless.
you insult me with sarcasm about "typical civic-minded conviction (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133410-Sonoma-County-Covid-19-The-Numbers&p=235534#post235534)" as though i lacked it, but do not address my question of what your idea is of progressing from the state of masked, distanced, locked down other than getting the vaccine you await.
fatality rate is now acknowledged at .26% and that mostly elderly sick - less than usual flu. enormous amounts of data, bored with and tired of repeating. think for yourself or await further orders.
Got it. So again:
" (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133410-Sonoma-County-Covid-19-The-Numbers&p=235534#post235534)So, with your typical civic-minded conviction, you're going to go out and "rip roar around"?" (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133410-Sonoma-County-Covid-19-The-Numbers&p=235534#post235534) and not worry about getting infected or infecting others?
Jude Iam
06-07-2020, 01:03 PM
hey richard,
THIS virus, this worsethaneverhorribleplaguecursedeath zommbifiingeatyourbrainandkillyoudeaderthandead covd 19 has .26 % fatality. and lots of no to mild symptom cases.
i'm betting on my (and YOUR) 99.8% chances of being JUST FINE. especially if you're breathing lots of oxygen, smiling, eating organic, drinking pure water, taking zinc, D, C and probiotics, getting some exercise and love.
i happen to be in the double vulnerable category, so you know that expression 'you bet your life'? i am.
for shopping, banking, lobbies i don requisite face covering. for those in fear i stay distanced.
with the more informed, sane and healthy, we are people together as we ever have been and ever will be.
by and large, the distinction this particular virus will have is not in its uniqueness but in world's response to it.
So we have 26% of the ICU beds available, plenty of slack for us to go rip-roaring-around, amirite Jude?
THIS virus, this worsethaneverhorribleplaguecursedeath zommbifiingeatyourbrainandkillyoudeaderthandead covd 19 has .26 % fatality. and lots of no to mild symptom cases.
i'm betting on my (and YOUR) 99.8% chances of being JUST FINE. especially if you're breathing lots of oxygen, smiling, eating organic, drinking pure water, taking zinc, D, C and probiotics, getting some exercise and love.
i happen to be in the double vulnerable category, so you know that expression 'you bet your life'? i am.
for shopping, banking, lobbies i don requisite face covering. for those in fear i stay distanced.
with the more informed, sane and healthy, we are people together as we ever have been and ever will be.
by and large, the distinction this particular virus will have is not in its uniqueness but in world's response to it.
So we have 26% of the ICU beds available, plenty of slack for us to go rip-roaring-around, amirite Jude?
Barry
06-07-2020, 01:34 PM
You asked me question about my personal beliefs and and how my conviction expresses itself in my personal behavior and I gave you a straight forward answer.
(https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133353-Coronavirus-quot-Reality-quot-amp-quot-Conspiracy-Theory-quot&p=235038#post235038)
I've asked you a similar question and you've now ducked it 3 times while lashing out each time.
Let's try again.
I know you are "civic-minded". Truly, though I have different opinions about how best to express that.
According to the article you posted (https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/lockdownlunacy), "If you have COVID-19, stay home. If you must go out, wear a mask. Everyone else, wash your hands, and get on with your life " since there is "no spread of COVID-19 in the community (shopping, restaurants, barbers, etc.) "
Is that what you are doing? Are you going out and "rip roar around" (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?p=235518#post235518)? Are you taking no precautions besides washing your hands?
To answer your (now clearly stated) question: I'll generally follow the CDC, State and County health guidelines, Probably even more strict when inside and possibly less strict when outside.
barry,
since you acknowledge that you don't read or watch much of what's posted here on this topic,
but continue to post and harangue, what's the point of dialoging with you? it's worthless.
you insult me with sarcasm about "typical civic-minded conviction (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133410-Sonoma-County-Covid-19-The-Numbers&p=235534#post235534)" as though i lacked it, ...
(https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133353-Coronavirus-quot-Reality-quot-amp-quot-Conspiracy-Theory-quot&p=235038#post235038)
I've asked you a similar question and you've now ducked it 3 times while lashing out each time.
Let's try again.
I know you are "civic-minded". Truly, though I have different opinions about how best to express that.
According to the article you posted (https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/lockdownlunacy), "If you have COVID-19, stay home. If you must go out, wear a mask. Everyone else, wash your hands, and get on with your life " since there is "no spread of COVID-19 in the community (shopping, restaurants, barbers, etc.) "
Is that what you are doing? Are you going out and "rip roar around" (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?p=235518#post235518)? Are you taking no precautions besides washing your hands?
To answer your (now clearly stated) question: I'll generally follow the CDC, State and County health guidelines, Probably even more strict when inside and possibly less strict when outside.
barry,
since you acknowledge that you don't read or watch much of what's posted here on this topic,
but continue to post and harangue, what's the point of dialoging with you? it's worthless.
you insult me with sarcasm about "typical civic-minded conviction (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133410-Sonoma-County-Covid-19-The-Numbers&p=235534#post235534)" as though i lacked it, ...
Jude Iam
06-07-2020, 02:22 PM
barry, your answer - weeks ago - was you'd wait for a year then get vaccinated.
that does not speak to from now till then, then being whenever a vaccine was ready.
now you've added that you'll follow CDC and other government orders.
that seems to be a significant part of our divergence; while i have no option but to wear a mask shopping, etc.
i do a lot of looking at who is issuing orders, who's behind/around them, motivations/vested interest, etc.
also everything about the virus itself, from all sources, fascinating and rigorous - and leading to less masking.
i am not in fear at all, but 'swim' in the consensual reality of all those like you, in fear and following orders, so i must be masked when shopping, etc. i largely avoid society now, to the degree it still exists. i go where there are few people so i can breathe freely, in all senses.
another difference i note here is what we deem "lashing out" -
for me, it's your sarcasm about my civic-mindedness, implying that i have none.
for you, it's my pointing out that conversing without reviewing foundational material is worthless.
i lightheartedly wrote the phrase 'rip roaring' and it seems to have stuck a nerve, images of a resurrected typhoid mary... fear not (additionally) - nowhere to go, nothing to do. (there are a precious few small gatherings, hesitantly shared if at all, of beings maskless, dancing together outdoors, reminiscent for me of those who used to worship together in secret for fear of persecution.) these days are slip sliding away. morphing into a more separate and far more fearful world, sadly.
may there be an equal or more powerful force of love and connection sweeping through humanity. perhaps the global response to police race murders expresses that.
may all our connections be restored and improved in all ways, far beyond safe - healthy, vital, deep and true.
You asked me question about my personal beliefs and and how my conviction expresses itself in my personal behavior and I gave you a straight forward answer. (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133353-Coronavirus-quot-Reality-quot-amp-quot-Conspiracy-Theory-quot&p=235038#post235038)
I've asked you a similar question and you've now ducked it 3 times while lashing out each time.
Let's try again.
I know you are "civic-minded". Truly, though I have different opinions about how best to express that....
that does not speak to from now till then, then being whenever a vaccine was ready.
now you've added that you'll follow CDC and other government orders.
that seems to be a significant part of our divergence; while i have no option but to wear a mask shopping, etc.
i do a lot of looking at who is issuing orders, who's behind/around them, motivations/vested interest, etc.
also everything about the virus itself, from all sources, fascinating and rigorous - and leading to less masking.
i am not in fear at all, but 'swim' in the consensual reality of all those like you, in fear and following orders, so i must be masked when shopping, etc. i largely avoid society now, to the degree it still exists. i go where there are few people so i can breathe freely, in all senses.
another difference i note here is what we deem "lashing out" -
for me, it's your sarcasm about my civic-mindedness, implying that i have none.
for you, it's my pointing out that conversing without reviewing foundational material is worthless.
i lightheartedly wrote the phrase 'rip roaring' and it seems to have stuck a nerve, images of a resurrected typhoid mary... fear not (additionally) - nowhere to go, nothing to do. (there are a precious few small gatherings, hesitantly shared if at all, of beings maskless, dancing together outdoors, reminiscent for me of those who used to worship together in secret for fear of persecution.) these days are slip sliding away. morphing into a more separate and far more fearful world, sadly.
may there be an equal or more powerful force of love and connection sweeping through humanity. perhaps the global response to police race murders expresses that.
may all our connections be restored and improved in all ways, far beyond safe - healthy, vital, deep and true.
You asked me question about my personal beliefs and and how my conviction expresses itself in my personal behavior and I gave you a straight forward answer. (https://www.waccobb.net/forums/showthread.php?133353-Coronavirus-quot-Reality-quot-amp-quot-Conspiracy-Theory-quot&p=235038#post235038)
I've asked you a similar question and you've now ducked it 3 times while lashing out each time.
Let's try again.
I know you are "civic-minded". Truly, though I have different opinions about how best to express that....
Jude Iam
06-07-2020, 07:57 PM
oy, fred, math. and these terms; i have no idea about either the NYC division/percentage/population
nor what sonoma county categories stand for. sorry but these have to be researched specifically. seems to me that covid is certainly worse that the usual flu but clearly a FAR cry from what it was touted to be.
i have been looking at much (right?!) information and doing my best to sort out good sources (knowledgeable and without vested interests) and especially note where information is confirmed by others. numbers i cite are hopefully with their source so can be pursued to validate or challenge.
i am admittedly predisposed to be suspect of governments. i was old enough to be conscious at the time of JFK's assassination but it took me a long time, years, to realize - and accept - that's what it was. it is really hard to recognize evil around us, in the form of people in/behind our own government, like coming to terms with sexual abuse from your own family. at this point, i put nothing past the realm of possibility. the curtain has been lifted on pedophilia in the highest echelons. brief reviews of operation paperclip and mk ultra documents will give the horrible truth to anyone who cares to look. the forces that profit from both sides of a war, that place leaders in power and remove them - that's the larger context in which i consider domestic and world events.
people like game of thrones - i've missed watching that, but i see about how much i can learn the game the actual rulers of planet Earth are working.
Jude, I appreciate all the documentation you provided ...
nor what sonoma county categories stand for. sorry but these have to be researched specifically. seems to me that covid is certainly worse that the usual flu but clearly a FAR cry from what it was touted to be.
i have been looking at much (right?!) information and doing my best to sort out good sources (knowledgeable and without vested interests) and especially note where information is confirmed by others. numbers i cite are hopefully with their source so can be pursued to validate or challenge.
i am admittedly predisposed to be suspect of governments. i was old enough to be conscious at the time of JFK's assassination but it took me a long time, years, to realize - and accept - that's what it was. it is really hard to recognize evil around us, in the form of people in/behind our own government, like coming to terms with sexual abuse from your own family. at this point, i put nothing past the realm of possibility. the curtain has been lifted on pedophilia in the highest echelons. brief reviews of operation paperclip and mk ultra documents will give the horrible truth to anyone who cares to look. the forces that profit from both sides of a war, that place leaders in power and remove them - that's the larger context in which i consider domestic and world events.
people like game of thrones - i've missed watching that, but i see about how much i can learn the game the actual rulers of planet Earth are working.
Jude, I appreciate all the documentation you provided ...
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-08-2020, 11:55 AM
June 749570
11 New Cases in Sonoma County last night.
11 New Cases in Sonoma County last night.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-09-2020, 11:13 AM
49574June 8
11 New cases last night. None were in West County.
WHO walks back statement about asymptomatic transmission being very rare https://www.foxnews.com/health/who-officials-walk-back-statement-coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission-very-rare
11 New cases last night. None were in West County.
WHO walks back statement about asymptomatic transmission being very rare https://www.foxnews.com/health/who-officials-walk-back-statement-coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission-very-rare
luke32
06-09-2020, 06:23 PM
Barry,
I thought you were going to keep the junk out of this thread and restrict it to the numbers.
Its getting so filled with nonsense that it is difficult to find the numbers.
I thought you were going to keep the junk out of this thread and restrict it to the numbers.
Its getting so filled with nonsense that it is difficult to find the numbers.
heresbruce
06-09-2020, 06:28 PM
Starting to remind me of MAD magazine... a bit funny, a bit offensive, but just in that so revealing in who makes up West county... I had no idea how wacko WACCO was...
Barry,
I thought you were going to keep the junk out of this thread and restrict it to the numbers.
Its getting so filled with nonsense that it is difficult to find the numbers.
Barry,
I thought you were going to keep the junk out of this thread and restrict it to the numbers.
Its getting so filled with nonsense that it is difficult to find the numbers.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-10-2020, 12:16 PM
49577June 9
7 New cases reported in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County.
Hispanic rates have increased to 75% of all Sonoma County cases. The Sonoma County hispanic population tends to be younger. This has kept our death and hospitalization rates lower than some other Bay Area Counties. Several states are seeing case numbers climbing. California is one of them (https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/06/08/coronavirus-infections-are-on-the-rise-in-21-us-states-with-cases-spiking-in-california-arizona-and-north-carolina/#5d68feb86d5e).
7 New cases reported in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County.
Hispanic rates have increased to 75% of all Sonoma County cases. The Sonoma County hispanic population tends to be younger. This has kept our death and hospitalization rates lower than some other Bay Area Counties. Several states are seeing case numbers climbing. California is one of them (https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/06/08/coronavirus-infections-are-on-the-rise-in-21-us-states-with-cases-spiking-in-california-arizona-and-north-carolina/#5d68feb86d5e).
rossmen
06-11-2020, 12:54 AM
The spread of covid is highly related to poverty. Soco and cali numbers are rising just like Florida and tehas because poor communities can't shelter like us rich in westco. Fortunately treatment has evolved. Because of economic livlyhood needs government edicts have moved from panicdemic mode to managed spread. The rich and enabler mase complain but as long as there's open er death beds we're good.
Have I written anything different from you goat?
Have I written anything different from you goat?
wisewomn
06-11-2020, 11:55 AM
Lockdowns have proven very effective according to a couple of studies:
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/millions-of-covid-cases-and-deaths-averted-thanks-to-lockdowns/?utm_campaign=newsletters&utm_medium=weekly_mailout&utm_source=11-06-2020
https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/millions-of-covid-cases-and-deaths-averted-thanks-to-lockdowns/?utm_campaign=newsletters&utm_medium=weekly_mailout&utm_source=11-06-2020
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-11-2020, 01:15 PM
49602June 10
9 New Cases reported in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County.
When N95 masks become available it might be a good idea to pick a few up incase things get worse. As we have all been told wearing a mask mostly protects the other guy from you but if the other guy won't wear one you can protect yourself from him with a higher grade N95 mask or even a full on P100 industrial respirator. They can be purchased on Ebay for about $40.
9 New Cases reported in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County.
When N95 masks become available it might be a good idea to pick a few up incase things get worse. As we have all been told wearing a mask mostly protects the other guy from you but if the other guy won't wear one you can protect yourself from him with a higher grade N95 mask or even a full on P100 industrial respirator. They can be purchased on Ebay for about $40.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-11-2020, 01:25 PM
Exactly right. If you aren't getting enhanced unemployment or even the $1200 stimulus because you are undocumented. Sheltering in place = starving in place.
The spread of covid is highly related to poverty. Soco and cali numbers are rising just like Florida and tehas because poor communities can't shelter like us rich in westco. Fortunately treatment has evolved. Because of economic livlyhood needs government edicts have moved from panicdemic mode to managed spread. The rich and enabler mase complain but as long as there's open er death beds we're good.
Have I written anything different from you goat?
The spread of covid is highly related to poverty. Soco and cali numbers are rising just like Florida and tehas because poor communities can't shelter like us rich in westco. Fortunately treatment has evolved. Because of economic livlyhood needs government edicts have moved from panicdemic mode to managed spread. The rich and enabler mase complain but as long as there's open er death beds we're good.
Have I written anything different from you goat?
ecojaf
06-11-2020, 05:28 PM
Yes, Covid has barely had an impact on Sonoma County (and really not all that much of one even in SF). If you want perspective on what it has done other places take a look at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html
(https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html)Maybe our combination of extreme privilege and luck will hold, but the way the world is falling apart out there (not just talking covid) we may need an actual bubble, not just the metaphorical one in which we live and partake in these enthusiastic debates.
My personal hunch is that this coming fall/winter is not going to be fun (covid resurgence or outbreaks in places that have largely been spared this time around coinciding with flu season). This is a disease that from an initial cluster spread across the entire globe in a month or two, and now there are thousands upon thousands of such clusters already in existence all over the globe.
Fire season is another wildcard. Airborne viruses can get transported deep into the lungs on pollution particles.
Yes, right now covid is not at all devastating in Sonoma County. If there weren't any other cyclical factors or wildcards that could come into play, maybe we really shouldn't worry about it so much; so what if we have a couple hundred active cases at a time . . . we're largely a healthy population; live in relatively low density; eat good healthy diets; don't have high rates of diabetes, etc. (let the vulnerable isolate themselves and let the rest of us carry on).
On the other hand it could be a real good thing to nearly eradicate it entirely before fall/winter, before flu season, before wildfire season. We simply have no idea. This is a brand new disease. We have a couple months experience with it. When we throw around numbers based on this limited time frame of existence with the disease in which very little real hard knowledge has been accumulated we're all just talking out of our asses, making assumptions, speculating. It's the same as if you brought somebody here in January and in a few weeks they came to firmly believe that Sonoma County is a very wet, rainy place with little sunshine.
(https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html)Maybe our combination of extreme privilege and luck will hold, but the way the world is falling apart out there (not just talking covid) we may need an actual bubble, not just the metaphorical one in which we live and partake in these enthusiastic debates.
My personal hunch is that this coming fall/winter is not going to be fun (covid resurgence or outbreaks in places that have largely been spared this time around coinciding with flu season). This is a disease that from an initial cluster spread across the entire globe in a month or two, and now there are thousands upon thousands of such clusters already in existence all over the globe.
Fire season is another wildcard. Airborne viruses can get transported deep into the lungs on pollution particles.
Yes, right now covid is not at all devastating in Sonoma County. If there weren't any other cyclical factors or wildcards that could come into play, maybe we really shouldn't worry about it so much; so what if we have a couple hundred active cases at a time . . . we're largely a healthy population; live in relatively low density; eat good healthy diets; don't have high rates of diabetes, etc. (let the vulnerable isolate themselves and let the rest of us carry on).
On the other hand it could be a real good thing to nearly eradicate it entirely before fall/winter, before flu season, before wildfire season. We simply have no idea. This is a brand new disease. We have a couple months experience with it. When we throw around numbers based on this limited time frame of existence with the disease in which very little real hard knowledge has been accumulated we're all just talking out of our asses, making assumptions, speculating. It's the same as if you brought somebody here in January and in a few weeks they came to firmly believe that Sonoma County is a very wet, rainy place with little sunshine.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-12-2020, 12:39 PM
49604June 11
21 New Cases reported last night in Sonoma County. None of the 21 were in West County Residents.
Cases in California are on the rise. Still at the present rate of infection it would take about 13.5 years for 75% of Sonoma County Residents to become infected. In that figure I estimate 8 unreported cases for every 1 reported. That could be high or low. We will know more when they do wide spread screening. But we are now told that may be a very imperfect science because the tests may show positives for other corona viruses that many may have had in the past.
21 New Cases reported last night in Sonoma County. None of the 21 were in West County Residents.
Cases in California are on the rise. Still at the present rate of infection it would take about 13.5 years for 75% of Sonoma County Residents to become infected. In that figure I estimate 8 unreported cases for every 1 reported. That could be high or low. We will know more when they do wide spread screening. But we are now told that may be a very imperfect science because the tests may show positives for other corona viruses that many may have had in the past.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-13-2020, 01:14 PM
49612June 12
21 New Cases in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County.
This is the second day in a row with 21 new cases.
21 New Cases in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County.
This is the second day in a row with 21 new cases.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-14-2020, 10:12 AM
49613June 13
30 New cases reported in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County.
This is the single largest case number during this pandemic. ICU beds are down to 11.
30 New cases reported in Sonoma County last night. None were in West County.
This is the single largest case number during this pandemic. ICU beds are down to 11.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-14-2020, 11:24 PM
49625June 14
6 New cases reported in Sonoma County. None were in West County residents.
Interesting video about the tuberculosis vaccine and how it may be the reason death rates from Covid-19 are low in countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh. The BCG vaccine appears to offer some protection from most viruses and lowers childhood death rates. BCG a standard vaccine in those countries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHq5wSdg4HE
6 New cases reported in Sonoma County. None were in West County residents.
Interesting video about the tuberculosis vaccine and how it may be the reason death rates from Covid-19 are low in countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh. The BCG vaccine appears to offer some protection from most viruses and lowers childhood death rates. BCG a standard vaccine in those countries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHq5wSdg4HE
geomancer
06-15-2020, 03:33 PM
This is a valuable public service you're doing. Saves me the hassle of going to the Co. website. It would be great if you could show a dashboard with a running total of all tests in the county, the daily total, and the daily positive rate.
Finell
06-15-2020, 04:10 PM
I am withdrawing the reply to geomancer that I posted here earlier today about the Leaden Rule (No good deed goes unpunished). I intended it as harmless humor, but Barry showed me in an email that my reply could be misinterpreted. Upon reading Barry's email, I realize that he is correct.
I did not intend to criticize geomancer or his reply to Goat Rock Ukulele. I did not intend to imply that geomancer was criticizing Goat Rock Ukulele.
I apologize to geomancer and Goat Rock Ukulele. I also apologize to anyone else who was offended by my remark.
.... It would be great if you could show a dashboard with a running total of all tests in the county, the daily total, and the daily positive rate.
I did not intend to criticize geomancer or his reply to Goat Rock Ukulele. I did not intend to imply that geomancer was criticizing Goat Rock Ukulele.
I apologize to geomancer and Goat Rock Ukulele. I also apologize to anyone else who was offended by my remark.
.... It would be great if you could show a dashboard with a running total of all tests in the county, the daily total, and the daily positive rate.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-15-2020, 11:24 PM
49631June 15
7 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County.
Type A blood puts you at somewhat higher risk of serious outcomes from Covid-19
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/two-genetic-regions-linked-with-severe-covid-19-67619
49630
7 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County.
Type A blood puts you at somewhat higher risk of serious outcomes from Covid-19
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/two-genetic-regions-linked-with-severe-covid-19-67619
49630
Finell
06-15-2020, 11:43 PM
Do you really not comprehend the loss of life, illness, pain, and suffering that this COVID-19 pandemic has caused in our state, our nation, and our world? That the small percentage of deaths you are so happy about represents hundreds of thousands of lives snuffed out? That many healthcare professionals died caring for the sick and dying? And don't you dare bet on our chances, or my chances, of joining the dead.
Here are the latest figures:
Worldwide: 7,690,000 cases; 428,000 deaths
United States: 2,160,000 cases' 118,000 deaths
California: 151,000 cases; 5,089 deaths
These facts demolish your argument that COVID-19 is just fake news, dreamed up by news media and Democrats.
I don't expect to convince you of anything. My concern is that your posts might convince others to abandon the only weapons we have now to combat this plague: limiting physical contact with others, maintaining physical distance from those we encounter, wearing face coverings (this won't stop transmission of the virus, but it may reduce the viral load enough to prevent some cases of COVID-19), and practicing good hygiene. You not only endanger those who believe you. You also endanger all of us: we cannot limit all contact with others, so the number of people you persuade to engage in unsafe conduct increases our, and your, vulnerability exponentially.
My wife and I regularly walk trails for exercise. The number of individuals engaging in unsafe conduct, refusing to maintain physical distance and refusing to wear masks, is steadily increasing. The problem is greatest with younger adults and adolescents. Those of us past middle age have the sense to behave more prudently.
You also endanger all of us to the extent that you convince others that their immune system—enhanced by "breathing lots of oxygen, smiling, eating organic, drinking pure water, taking zinc, D, C and probiotics, getting some exercise and love"—will prevent COVID-19. I agree with you that those things promote health and wellbeing and can improve the immune system's function. I would add good personal hygiene, adopting a plant-based diet (i.e., vegan), laughing, and dancing. But that will not prevent infection by the hyper-contagious SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. No factual or scientific information supports your argument on this. Even an optimal immune system will not prevent aggressive viral or bacterial infection. That is not what the immune system is supposed to do.
THIS virus, this worsethaneverhorribleplaguecursedeath zommbifiingeatyourbrainandkillyoudeaderthandead covd 19 has .26 % fatality. and lots of no to mild symptom cases.
i'm betting on my (and YOUR) 99.8% chances of being JUST FINE. especially if you're breathing lots of oxygen, smiling, eating organic, drinking pure water, taking zinc, D, C and probiotics, getting some exercise and love.
Here are the latest figures:
Worldwide: 7,690,000 cases; 428,000 deaths
United States: 2,160,000 cases' 118,000 deaths
California: 151,000 cases; 5,089 deaths
These facts demolish your argument that COVID-19 is just fake news, dreamed up by news media and Democrats.
I don't expect to convince you of anything. My concern is that your posts might convince others to abandon the only weapons we have now to combat this plague: limiting physical contact with others, maintaining physical distance from those we encounter, wearing face coverings (this won't stop transmission of the virus, but it may reduce the viral load enough to prevent some cases of COVID-19), and practicing good hygiene. You not only endanger those who believe you. You also endanger all of us: we cannot limit all contact with others, so the number of people you persuade to engage in unsafe conduct increases our, and your, vulnerability exponentially.
My wife and I regularly walk trails for exercise. The number of individuals engaging in unsafe conduct, refusing to maintain physical distance and refusing to wear masks, is steadily increasing. The problem is greatest with younger adults and adolescents. Those of us past middle age have the sense to behave more prudently.
You also endanger all of us to the extent that you convince others that their immune system—enhanced by "breathing lots of oxygen, smiling, eating organic, drinking pure water, taking zinc, D, C and probiotics, getting some exercise and love"—will prevent COVID-19. I agree with you that those things promote health and wellbeing and can improve the immune system's function. I would add good personal hygiene, adopting a plant-based diet (i.e., vegan), laughing, and dancing. But that will not prevent infection by the hyper-contagious SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. No factual or scientific information supports your argument on this. Even an optimal immune system will not prevent aggressive viral or bacterial infection. That is not what the immune system is supposed to do.
THIS virus, this worsethaneverhorribleplaguecursedeath zommbifiingeatyourbrainandkillyoudeaderthandead covd 19 has .26 % fatality. and lots of no to mild symptom cases.
i'm betting on my (and YOUR) 99.8% chances of being JUST FINE. especially if you're breathing lots of oxygen, smiling, eating organic, drinking pure water, taking zinc, D, C and probiotics, getting some exercise and love.
rossmen
06-16-2020, 03:10 PM
Of course the purpose of our immune system is not to prevent infection, it's to survive infection. I'm glad you practice an immune enhancing lifestyle. It will extend your life. And yes covid kills, we will know even more people taken out by this novel virus, and the efforts to slow it's spread. Science takes time, and fortunately panicdemic has focused the world scientific community, and political, economic and social discourse. Please keep contributing.
Do you really not comprehend the loss of life, illness, pain, and suffering that this COVID-19 pandemic has caused in our state, our nation, and our world? ...
Do you really not comprehend the loss of life, illness, pain, and suffering that this COVID-19 pandemic has caused in our state, our nation, and our world? ...
wisewomn
06-16-2020, 03:26 PM
https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/98607442_10216962294671340_3283841289107275776_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_oc=AQkG5E9baLL9sydRw8Mg5_BD_iGmM8gffgZCjrMBfPmDLJnM_bOnBz5APlQKE4LkhrtWuNtu2odilNFa9V558c7g&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-1.xx&oh=5f765eb2d35093c9b03738d09eea33d2&oe=5F0C05E7
and also CIVILIZED.
and also CIVILIZED.
Jude Iam
06-16-2020, 09:19 PM
Every single detected case with no symptoms or slight symptoms is exactly what you are convinced is not possible.
(and "dreamed up by Democrats"? that's your surmise, not mine.)
Do you really not comprehend the loss of life, ...
(and "dreamed up by Democrats"? that's your surmise, not mine.)
Do you really not comprehend the loss of life, ...
podfish
06-16-2020, 09:33 PM
Every single detected case with no symptoms or slight symptoms is exactly what you are convinced is not possible....if I read Finell's concerns right, you're missing his issue completely. Are you reading him as saying that covid is always fatal? so that people who have mild or asymptomatic cases disprove his statements?
I don't see that at all. The issue is far simpler to state - many people are severely harmed by covid infections. That's indisputable. Many seem to downplay its severity. I don't think anyone is saying it's inevitable that unless you maintain hyper-vigilance, you're doomed. What they are saying is that the risks are so high, at least to some people, that extreme measures to protect your neighbors, if not yourself, are morally required.
People can of course dispute whether that's a fair expectation of them. It does demand a lot of sacrifice, and obviously many who are asked to make that sacrifice aren't particularly willing to. But that's the issue at hand.
I don't see that at all. The issue is far simpler to state - many people are severely harmed by covid infections. That's indisputable. Many seem to downplay its severity. I don't think anyone is saying it's inevitable that unless you maintain hyper-vigilance, you're doomed. What they are saying is that the risks are so high, at least to some people, that extreme measures to protect your neighbors, if not yourself, are morally required.
People can of course dispute whether that's a fair expectation of them. It does demand a lot of sacrifice, and obviously many who are asked to make that sacrifice aren't particularly willing to. But that's the issue at hand.
Jude Iam
06-16-2020, 09:45 PM
nope, peter. I replied to steven's statements that a really healthy immune system was virtually irrelevant to not getting a case of c19 - this here:
But that will not prevent infection by the hyper-contagious SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. No factual or scientific information supports your argument on this. Even an optimal immune system will not prevent aggressive viral or bacterial infection. That is not what the immune system is supposed to do.
WHAT, pray tell, IS the immune system supposed to do if not exactly THAT?
And, about that moral part:
to what degree are we responsible for our own health? self-responsible, not doctor-fix-me. each one.
this is bordering on/analogous to the difference between those who get the flu shots
and those who don't get the shots - or the flu,
and are not about to start.
one diff is, though, that I'm ok with people deciding if they get that shot or not.
other peeps want to decide for me if/that I get that shot. that's a big difference.
someone else's / the states decision. in my body? no.
learn more about what's in vaccines, and what might be in this one. get back to us when you find out.
be well & have some fun. Jude
if I read Finell's concerns right, you're missing his issue completely. ...
But that will not prevent infection by the hyper-contagious SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. No factual or scientific information supports your argument on this. Even an optimal immune system will not prevent aggressive viral or bacterial infection. That is not what the immune system is supposed to do.
WHAT, pray tell, IS the immune system supposed to do if not exactly THAT?
And, about that moral part:
to what degree are we responsible for our own health? self-responsible, not doctor-fix-me. each one.
this is bordering on/analogous to the difference between those who get the flu shots
and those who don't get the shots - or the flu,
and are not about to start.
one diff is, though, that I'm ok with people deciding if they get that shot or not.
other peeps want to decide for me if/that I get that shot. that's a big difference.
someone else's / the states decision. in my body? no.
learn more about what's in vaccines, and what might be in this one. get back to us when you find out.
be well & have some fun. Jude
if I read Finell's concerns right, you're missing his issue completely. ...
geomancer
06-17-2020, 11:33 AM
Turns out there is a modest advantage to having type O blood.
23andme: 23andMe finds evidence that blood type plays a role in COVID-1 (https://blog.23andme.com/23andme-research/23andme-finds-evidence-that-blood-type-plays-a-role-in-covid-19/)9
But a first blush look at the information from the more than 750,000 participants in the study shows the following:
The preliminary data suggest that O blood type appears to be protective against the virus when compared to all other blood types.
Individuals with O blood type are between 9-18% percent less likely than individuals with other blood types to have tested positive for COVID-19, according to the data.
There appeared to be little differences in susceptibility among the other blood types.
These findings hold when adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, and co-morbidities.
Although one study (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058073v1.full.pdf) found the blood group O only to be protective across rhesus positive blood types, differences in rhesus factor (blood type + or -) were not significant in 23andMe data. Nor was this a factor in susceptibility or severity in cases.
Among those exposed to the virus — healthcare and other front line workers — 23andMe found that blood type O is similarly protective, but the proportion of cases within strata is higher.
Also:
https://www.WaccoBB.net/forums/waccobb/keep90days/2017-08-15_12-45-27.png
The ultimate covid-19 mystery: Why does it spare some and kill others?
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/the-ultimate-covid-19-mystery-why-does-it-spare-some-and-kill-others/2020/06/16/f6acc1a0-ab35-11ea-9063-e69bd6520940_story.html)
"One, the ABO gene, determines blood type. The researchers found that patients who had Type A blood had a 50 percent higher risk of needing oxygen or a ventilator. Type O blood seemed to have a partial protective effect."
"The consumer genetics giants Ancestry.com and 23andMe are getting involved. 23andMe recently released preliminary findings (https://blog.23andme.com/23andme-research/23andme-finds-evidence-that-blood-type-plays-a-role-in-covid-19/) showing that people with Type O blood are 9 to 18 percent less likely to test positive for covid-19 than people with other blood types."
23andme: 23andMe finds evidence that blood type plays a role in COVID-1 (https://blog.23andme.com/23andme-research/23andme-finds-evidence-that-blood-type-plays-a-role-in-covid-19/)9
But a first blush look at the information from the more than 750,000 participants in the study shows the following:
The preliminary data suggest that O blood type appears to be protective against the virus when compared to all other blood types.
Individuals with O blood type are between 9-18% percent less likely than individuals with other blood types to have tested positive for COVID-19, according to the data.
There appeared to be little differences in susceptibility among the other blood types.
These findings hold when adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, and co-morbidities.
Although one study (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058073v1.full.pdf) found the blood group O only to be protective across rhesus positive blood types, differences in rhesus factor (blood type + or -) were not significant in 23andMe data. Nor was this a factor in susceptibility or severity in cases.
Among those exposed to the virus — healthcare and other front line workers — 23andMe found that blood type O is similarly protective, but the proportion of cases within strata is higher.
Also:
https://www.WaccoBB.net/forums/waccobb/keep90days/2017-08-15_12-45-27.png
The ultimate covid-19 mystery: Why does it spare some and kill others?
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/the-ultimate-covid-19-mystery-why-does-it-spare-some-and-kill-others/2020/06/16/f6acc1a0-ab35-11ea-9063-e69bd6520940_story.html)
"One, the ABO gene, determines blood type. The researchers found that patients who had Type A blood had a 50 percent higher risk of needing oxygen or a ventilator. Type O blood seemed to have a partial protective effect."
"The consumer genetics giants Ancestry.com and 23andMe are getting involved. 23andMe recently released preliminary findings (https://blog.23andme.com/23andme-research/23andme-finds-evidence-that-blood-type-plays-a-role-in-covid-19/) showing that people with Type O blood are 9 to 18 percent less likely to test positive for covid-19 than people with other blood types."
wisewomn
06-17-2020, 12:24 PM
Thanks, Geo.
It's also interesting, to me at least, that Type O is the oldest blood type. I wonder if it is at all related to the fact that having Neanderthal DNA in your genome gives some survival advantages and increased immunity..
TheScientist: Advantages of Neanderthal DNA in the Human Genome (https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/advantages-of-neanderthal-dna-in-the-human-genome-32547)
The Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Neanderthal DNA in the Human Genome
(https://wiki.uiowa.edu/display/2360159/2016/12/07/The+Possible+Advantages+and+Disadvantages+of+Neanderthal+DNA+in+the+Human+Genome)
Back in the early days, Homo sap and Neanderthals did interbreed, which is why there are traces of their DNA in some populations.
Turns out there is a modest advantage to having type O blood....
It's also interesting, to me at least, that Type O is the oldest blood type. I wonder if it is at all related to the fact that having Neanderthal DNA in your genome gives some survival advantages and increased immunity..
TheScientist: Advantages of Neanderthal DNA in the Human Genome (https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/advantages-of-neanderthal-dna-in-the-human-genome-32547)
The Possible Advantages and Disadvantages of Neanderthal DNA in the Human Genome
(https://wiki.uiowa.edu/display/2360159/2016/12/07/The+Possible+Advantages+and+Disadvantages+of+Neanderthal+DNA+in+the+Human+Genome)
Back in the early days, Homo sap and Neanderthals did interbreed, which is why there are traces of their DNA in some populations.
Turns out there is a modest advantage to having type O blood....
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-17-2020, 01:16 PM
49639June 16
9 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County residents.
A common steroid cuts death rates for those on a ventilator by one-third and 25% for those on oxygen only. (https://www.ft.com/content/25496bd1-8664-4674-abeb-c95dfe478156)
49638
9 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County residents.
A common steroid cuts death rates for those on a ventilator by one-third and 25% for those on oxygen only. (https://www.ft.com/content/25496bd1-8664-4674-abeb-c95dfe478156)
49638
rossmen
06-18-2020, 01:07 AM
Type 0 is even older than Neanderthals, not all of them had it. Carried by other hominid lines too.
More important is what do the numbers mean? And how can they inform public health? Lots of numbers now from all over the world, different countries, cultures, governments and socioeconomic demographics. A clear picture of the inevitable spread of covid 19 is emerging. Washington caught it early and shut down, second wave developing. Cali caught it good and shut down quick, steady rising case numbers, death rate steady, poverty big factor. New York was walloped, developing heard immunity, steady drop in cases and death. Sweden has done a way better job at managing medical resources and rate of spread, lower peak and slower decline, like Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Illinois, Ohio, Rhode island too, (not really, they slowed spread by shutdown). The point is that any area which has had widespread community spread and developed testing capacity can slow the increase in daily cases, but daily death will only decline as heard immunity begins to take effect. Think Belgium.
The country's, the state's, the regions which have practiced successful levels of containment, whether it's south Korea, west county or Hawaii, even new Zealand, are shrinking islands in covid world. Therapeutics will help limit death. And yeah wuhan has heard immunity.
The numbers tell the tale. Communities in the us had about the same rates of death in 1918-19. Sure some were able to delay the reaper...
Our current delay tactics, available to the rich, are predicated on unprecedented vaccine development. This is revealed to be an increasingly bad bet. Fortunately the virus, while highly contagious, especially in close quarters, turns out to be not nearly as virulent as first estimated.
More important is what do the numbers mean? And how can they inform public health? Lots of numbers now from all over the world, different countries, cultures, governments and socioeconomic demographics. A clear picture of the inevitable spread of covid 19 is emerging. Washington caught it early and shut down, second wave developing. Cali caught it good and shut down quick, steady rising case numbers, death rate steady, poverty big factor. New York was walloped, developing heard immunity, steady drop in cases and death. Sweden has done a way better job at managing medical resources and rate of spread, lower peak and slower decline, like Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Illinois, Ohio, Rhode island too, (not really, they slowed spread by shutdown). The point is that any area which has had widespread community spread and developed testing capacity can slow the increase in daily cases, but daily death will only decline as heard immunity begins to take effect. Think Belgium.
The country's, the state's, the regions which have practiced successful levels of containment, whether it's south Korea, west county or Hawaii, even new Zealand, are shrinking islands in covid world. Therapeutics will help limit death. And yeah wuhan has heard immunity.
The numbers tell the tale. Communities in the us had about the same rates of death in 1918-19. Sure some were able to delay the reaper...
Our current delay tactics, available to the rich, are predicated on unprecedented vaccine development. This is revealed to be an increasingly bad bet. Fortunately the virus, while highly contagious, especially in close quarters, turns out to be not nearly as virulent as first estimated.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-18-2020, 11:47 AM
49642June 17
29 New Cases in Sonoma County. 1 was a West County Resident.
Sonoma County is doing well in terms of deaths. Marin has fewer cases and 4 times as many deaths. Napa has one quarter the number of cases and the same number of deaths.
California records it's highest number of cases
(https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/California-sets-new-record-for-most-new-15348122.php)
49641
29 New Cases in Sonoma County. 1 was a West County Resident.
Sonoma County is doing well in terms of deaths. Marin has fewer cases and 4 times as many deaths. Napa has one quarter the number of cases and the same number of deaths.
California records it's highest number of cases
(https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/California-sets-new-record-for-most-new-15348122.php)
49641
gypsey
06-18-2020, 06:25 PM
Interesting. What I read to day was that this modest advantage is not statistically significant in terms of infections and recovery right now, but these genetic findings can play a role in developing treatments.
Turns out there is a modest advantage to having type O blood....
Turns out there is a modest advantage to having type O blood....
rossmen
06-18-2020, 11:18 PM
In comparing the curves for daily new cases and daily death I've come to appreciate another grim statistic, death per million. In places where these two curves match and show a rapid rise to a peak and then a much slower continuous fall, indicating developing heard immunity, the death per million is high.
New York is highest about 1600. New York also has the sharpest rise and fastest fall. In country's where the infection rate was slowed after the virus was established with good health care that was never overwhelmed, like Ireland, it can be as low as 350 and the rate of rise and fall are slower.
California is currently 136. Soco 9. Our state has steady increase of new cases and daily death is steady.
Florida curves look like a second wave, 146.
New York is highest about 1600. New York also has the sharpest rise and fastest fall. In country's where the infection rate was slowed after the virus was established with good health care that was never overwhelmed, like Ireland, it can be as low as 350 and the rate of rise and fall are slower.
California is currently 136. Soco 9. Our state has steady increase of new cases and daily death is steady.
Florida curves look like a second wave, 146.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-19-2020, 02:01 PM
49652June 18
19 New Cases. None were in West County.
Here are the links for some other CA counties dashboards. We have a less than 1% death rate. Other counties are not so lucky with 6 to over 7% death rate.
http://www.icphd.org/health-information-and-resources/healthy-facts/covid-19/
https://kernpublichealth.com/covid-19_dashboard/
https://www.yolocounty.org/health-human-services/adults/communicable-disease-investigation-and-control/novel-coronavirus-2019/dashboard-and-documents
https://mercedcounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8f033b008fc24a77aea37b5c89f40802
https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/covid-19/data/daily-summary.aspx
49651
19 New Cases. None were in West County.
Here are the links for some other CA counties dashboards. We have a less than 1% death rate. Other counties are not so lucky with 6 to over 7% death rate.
http://www.icphd.org/health-information-and-resources/healthy-facts/covid-19/
https://kernpublichealth.com/covid-19_dashboard/
https://www.yolocounty.org/health-human-services/adults/communicable-disease-investigation-and-control/novel-coronavirus-2019/dashboard-and-documents
https://mercedcounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8f033b008fc24a77aea37b5c89f40802
https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/covid-19/data/daily-summary.aspx
49651
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-20-2020, 12:56 PM
49659June 19
13 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County residents.
2 percent of tests taken are positive. This is a low number. Our hospitalization rate is 6% of positives. Also a low number. This indicates to me our Health Department is dong a good job of tracking down cases. In many areas Health Officials receive death threats and some have had armed fools show up at their homes. Many have resigned. They didn't sign up for being terrorized for trying to save the lives of the public.
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/CA-health-directors-quit-amid-death-threats-15343863.php
49658
13 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County residents.
2 percent of tests taken are positive. This is a low number. Our hospitalization rate is 6% of positives. Also a low number. This indicates to me our Health Department is dong a good job of tracking down cases. In many areas Health Officials receive death threats and some have had armed fools show up at their homes. Many have resigned. They didn't sign up for being terrorized for trying to save the lives of the public.
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/CA-health-directors-quit-amid-death-threats-15343863.php
49658
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-21-2020, 09:40 AM
Sonoma County didn't update last night so no new numbers.
If you are using an N95 mask they want you to use the non vented type. The vented type does not do a good job of protecting others from you. I suppose you could hot-glue the vent closed to convert a vented to non vented.
SF Chronicle: Face mask rules for the Bay Area: Why you need to wear one (https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Coronavirus-FAQ-Should-you-wear-a-face-mask-15147298.php)
If you are using an N95 mask they want you to use the non vented type. The vented type does not do a good job of protecting others from you. I suppose you could hot-glue the vent closed to convert a vented to non vented.
SF Chronicle: Face mask rules for the Bay Area: Why you need to wear one (https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Coronavirus-FAQ-Should-you-wear-a-face-mask-15147298.php)
wisewomn
06-21-2020, 10:22 AM
Or put duct tape over the vent, inside or outside.
I suppose you could hot-glue the vent closed to convert a vented to non vented. ...
I suppose you could hot-glue the vent closed to convert a vented to non vented. ...
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-21-2020, 10:54 AM
Non vented N95 masks are now readily available on ebay for a few bucks per in boxes of 10.
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-22-2020, 01:19 PM
49669June 21
32 New Cases. None were in West County Residents.
If you have the time it's worth listening to the part of this press conference given by California HHS Secretary Dr. Ghaly. (https://laist.com/latest/post/20200622/gov-newsom-coronavirus-california-updates-covid-19)
49668
32 New Cases. None were in West County Residents.
If you have the time it's worth listening to the part of this press conference given by California HHS Secretary Dr. Ghaly. (https://laist.com/latest/post/20200622/gov-newsom-coronavirus-california-updates-covid-19)
49668
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-23-2020, 09:57 AM
49674June 22
50 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County Residents.
This is the largest single day case number to date by far.
49673
50 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County Residents.
This is the largest single day case number to date by far.
49673
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-24-2020, 01:08 PM
49682June 23
21 New Cases last night reported in Sonoma County. None were in West County.
California Cases are rising rapidly (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-24/alarming-spike-in-coronavirus-spark-fear-california-starting-to-lose-this-battle)
49681
21 New Cases last night reported in Sonoma County. None were in West County.
California Cases are rising rapidly (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-24/alarming-spike-in-coronavirus-spark-fear-california-starting-to-lose-this-battle)
49681
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-25-2020, 12:42 PM
49690June 24
18 New Cases reported last night. None were West County Residents.
Sonoma County ICU beds available at new low of 7 (https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/1edbb41952a8417385652279305e878d/page/page_23/)
49689
18 New Cases reported last night. None were West County Residents.
Sonoma County ICU beds available at new low of 7 (https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/1edbb41952a8417385652279305e878d/page/page_23/)
49689
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-26-2020, 12:44 PM
49695June 25
32 New Cases in Sonoma County last night. None were West County Residents.
We crossed the 1,000 total cases in Sonoma County last night (this includes active and no longer active). If we are to accept CDC estimates that would mean 10,000 people have had the virus in Sonoma County. California death rate is just under 3% of diagnosed cases. At less than one half a percent we are doing great in that regard. Several states are in real trouble. Seems like we are teetering. I suspect the next 30 days will tell the tale.
49694
32 New Cases in Sonoma County last night. None were West County Residents.
We crossed the 1,000 total cases in Sonoma County last night (this includes active and no longer active). If we are to accept CDC estimates that would mean 10,000 people have had the virus in Sonoma County. California death rate is just under 3% of diagnosed cases. At less than one half a percent we are doing great in that regard. Several states are in real trouble. Seems like we are teetering. I suspect the next 30 days will tell the tale.
49694
gaiasophia
06-27-2020, 11:08 PM
I spoke with a friend yesterday, who's seriously researching/fact checking etc...
and she was saying the most cases are in Santa Rosa...
Thank you for your research...
:heart:
June 25
32 New Cases in Sonoma County last night. None were West County Residents....
and she was saying the most cases are in Santa Rosa...
Thank you for your research...
:heart:
June 25
32 New Cases in Sonoma County last night. None were West County Residents....
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-28-2020, 10:46 AM
49701June 27
49 New Cases reported in Sonoma County. 3 were West County Residents.
They did not post numbers on Friday night so this may represent two days. Still, numbers are going up. County Health Officials expect case numbers to double from here to the end of July. (https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/sonoma-county-expects-2000-coronavirus-cases-by-end-of-july/)
If we are to take CDC estimates that for every case detected there are 9 more who have been infected and did not present at a testing site or hospital that would mean by the end of July there will be 20,000 in Sonoma County who have encountered the virus. That is 4 percent of the population of Sonoma County. That is a number that will provide almost no herd immunity if indeed having antibodies provides immunity.
We can handle this virus if we do the right things. Rhode Island is handling it well. (https://fortune.com/2020/06/13/rhode-island-coronavirus-testing-governor-gina-raimondo-reopening-schools/)
49700
49 New Cases reported in Sonoma County. 3 were West County Residents.
They did not post numbers on Friday night so this may represent two days. Still, numbers are going up. County Health Officials expect case numbers to double from here to the end of July. (https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/sonoma-county-expects-2000-coronavirus-cases-by-end-of-july/)
If we are to take CDC estimates that for every case detected there are 9 more who have been infected and did not present at a testing site or hospital that would mean by the end of July there will be 20,000 in Sonoma County who have encountered the virus. That is 4 percent of the population of Sonoma County. That is a number that will provide almost no herd immunity if indeed having antibodies provides immunity.
We can handle this virus if we do the right things. Rhode Island is handling it well. (https://fortune.com/2020/06/13/rhode-island-coronavirus-testing-governor-gina-raimondo-reopening-schools/)
49700
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-29-2020, 12:46 PM
49723June 28
26 New Cases in Sonoma County. 1 was a West County Resident.
Over 1,000 positive at San Quentin Prison (https://www.sfweekly.com/news/san-quentin-covid-19-cases-top-1000/).
49722
26 New Cases in Sonoma County. 1 was a West County Resident.
Over 1,000 positive at San Quentin Prison (https://www.sfweekly.com/news/san-quentin-covid-19-cases-top-1000/).
49722
rossmen
06-29-2020, 10:44 PM
Rhode island has a fatality rate of .09%. This is enough to indicate substantial developing herd immunity. Fifth highest state in this nation. Political leadership is highly overrated. The data tracks the truth. Washington state and ours did everything right according to propedemioligists. Public health officers love to cite herd immunity when promoting vaccines. Yet in this time of an historic novel virus their lips are sealed. Right now the truth is a battle between data and science. The data is now, and has many flaws. The science is just developing, and most of it has already been proven wrong.
...We can handle this virus if we do the right things. Rhode Island is handling it well. (https://fortune.com/2020/06/13/rhode-island-coronavirus-testing-governor-gina-raimondo-reopening-schools/)
...We can handle this virus if we do the right things. Rhode Island is handling it well. (https://fortune.com/2020/06/13/rhode-island-coronavirus-testing-governor-gina-raimondo-reopening-schools/)
Goat Rock Ukulele
06-30-2020, 10:49 AM
49725June 29
18 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County.
West County percentage of infections has dropped from 4% to 3% with a total of 34 cases
Sadly we lost 2 Sonoma County Residents to the virus (https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/two-more-sonoma-county-residents-die-from-the-coronavirus/).
Link for Hospitalization information (https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19HospitalsDashboard/Hospitals?:embed=y&:showVizHome=no)
49724
18 New Cases in Sonoma County. None were in West County.
West County percentage of infections has dropped from 4% to 3% with a total of 34 cases
Sadly we lost 2 Sonoma County Residents to the virus (https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/two-more-sonoma-county-residents-die-from-the-coronavirus/).
Link for Hospitalization information (https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19HospitalsDashboard/Hospitals?:embed=y&:showVizHome=no)
49724
ecojaf
06-30-2020, 01:25 PM
CNN: He was an athlete in the best shape of his life. Then Covid-19 nearly killed him (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/health/coronavirus-athlete-covid-19-ahmad-ayyad-john-hopkins-trnd/index.html)
T (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/health/coronavirus-athlete-covid-19-ahmad-ayyad-john-hopkins-trnd/index.html)o me the real interesting thing in this article is a one sentence throwaway mention that this guy tested positive for both covid and influenza (got sick at tail end of last flu season), without at all focusing on whether it was significant to his disease progression and whether we should be thinking about where we need to be with the disease in a couple months entering flu season. Article simply focuses on his ordeal with covid.
My Diatribe on the issue (I recommend NOT reading; I'm just venting for here down):
Most Americans (including the people in the media and in charge) lack any ability to think beyond what is immediately in front of them; we make all these proclamations with certainty from limited data sets and without any effort at critical thinking.
A few months ago the hope was that the more favorable conditions of summer would be our saving grace, and now that the pandemic is just continuing to spread ferociously here, everybody just ignores that we possibly are in a more favorable time of year (meaning that if we hadn't entered this more favorable seasonal time of the year the wildfire would be an uncontrolled inferno). There is still the possibility that fall/winter (cold, flu, pneumonia, respiratory illness season) will be far worse, including because there is the possibility that having covid at the same time as flu will counteract our success (luck or seasonal benefits) in driving down the death rate, even as the number of cases dramatically increase.
We have moved into a season that many hoped would be more favorable for us against the virus and we should consider that still might be the case; that that might be the reason for low death rate (relative to rising case numbers). I have never worried about catching the flu; I have never gotten a flu vaccine: I'm 52 and haven't gone to a doctor for an illness (even when sick) since I was taken by my mommy as child but I'm strictly isolating (relying on myself to just avoid people rather than rely on others to be responsible towards me) and intend to be absurdly paranoid about doing so during this cold/flu season (even more so if there is wildfire pollution in the air). Of course, I may be completely wrong; we have no data about what will happen with covid during a flu season; all I can do is speculate.
But I thought we were screwed a month ago when everybody (including our more "enlightened" and pro-science rhetoric leaders) thought "flattening the curve" (on a virus that started in a small cluster in central China and spread around the world in a couple months and now was prevalent throughout the globe) was somehow at all sufficient. Somebody throws a catch phrase like "flattening the curve" around and everybody picks it up as if a bumper sticker phrase can encapsulate sound public policy. Flattening the curve was an emergency first step, that should have been following by driving the curve down (as many Europeans and Asians understood) and followed by numerous further steps, all of which should have preceded "getting back to normal".
As far as I'm concerned, every single state and federal leader (republican and democrat) has failed us because the only rational thing that could have been done was to provide Universal Basic Income to all to stay isolated in small clusters through this flu season, enact Medicare for All, and inject massive funding into science and health infrastructure (while letting corporations fend for themselves and allow a necessary transition to our next economy take place). And while this might seem like Monday morning quarter-backing, it really is not, because the next round of lockdowns is quite possibly coming this flu season and rather than fight each other in our mask/no mask (freedom; civic duty) culture war, we should fight for UBI and functioning government (with 9 billion people, living with disfunctional governments and rampant abject poverty, on a relatively small planet we've actually been really lucky at how few pandemics we've had in our recent history).
T (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/health/coronavirus-athlete-covid-19-ahmad-ayyad-john-hopkins-trnd/index.html)o me the real interesting thing in this article is a one sentence throwaway mention that this guy tested positive for both covid and influenza (got sick at tail end of last flu season), without at all focusing on whether it was significant to his disease progression and whether we should be thinking about where we need to be with the disease in a couple months entering flu season. Article simply focuses on his ordeal with covid.
My Diatribe on the issue (I recommend NOT reading; I'm just venting for here down):
Most Americans (including the people in the media and in charge) lack any ability to think beyond what is immediately in front of them; we make all these proclamations with certainty from limited data sets and without any effort at critical thinking.
A few months ago the hope was that the more favorable conditions of summer would be our saving grace, and now that the pandemic is just continuing to spread ferociously here, everybody just ignores that we possibly are in a more favorable time of year (meaning that if we hadn't entered this more favorable seasonal time of the year the wildfire would be an uncontrolled inferno). There is still the possibility that fall/winter (cold, flu, pneumonia, respiratory illness season) will be far worse, including because there is the possibility that having covid at the same time as flu will counteract our success (luck or seasonal benefits) in driving down the death rate, even as the number of cases dramatically increase.
We have moved into a season that many hoped would be more favorable for us against the virus and we should consider that still might be the case; that that might be the reason for low death rate (relative to rising case numbers). I have never worried about catching the flu; I have never gotten a flu vaccine: I'm 52 and haven't gone to a doctor for an illness (even when sick) since I was taken by my mommy as child but I'm strictly isolating (relying on myself to just avoid people rather than rely on others to be responsible towards me) and intend to be absurdly paranoid about doing so during this cold/flu season (even more so if there is wildfire pollution in the air). Of course, I may be completely wrong; we have no data about what will happen with covid during a flu season; all I can do is speculate.
But I thought we were screwed a month ago when everybody (including our more "enlightened" and pro-science rhetoric leaders) thought "flattening the curve" (on a virus that started in a small cluster in central China and spread around the world in a couple months and now was prevalent throughout the globe) was somehow at all sufficient. Somebody throws a catch phrase like "flattening the curve" around and everybody picks it up as if a bumper sticker phrase can encapsulate sound public policy. Flattening the curve was an emergency first step, that should have been following by driving the curve down (as many Europeans and Asians understood) and followed by numerous further steps, all of which should have preceded "getting back to normal".
As far as I'm concerned, every single state and federal leader (republican and democrat) has failed us because the only rational thing that could have been done was to provide Universal Basic Income to all to stay isolated in small clusters through this flu season, enact Medicare for All, and inject massive funding into science and health infrastructure (while letting corporations fend for themselves and allow a necessary transition to our next economy take place). And while this might seem like Monday morning quarter-backing, it really is not, because the next round of lockdowns is quite possibly coming this flu season and rather than fight each other in our mask/no mask (freedom; civic duty) culture war, we should fight for UBI and functioning government (with 9 billion people, living with disfunctional governments and rampant abject poverty, on a relatively small planet we've actually been really lucky at how few pandemics we've had in our recent history).