PD article "The Paris Climate Agreement Needs a Cap," 12/19

[Shepherd]

The following Close to Home article by former Sonoma County resident Mike Sandler appeared in the Dec. 19 PD, after Mike's return from the Paris climate change conference.

The Paris Climate Agreement Needs a Cap

Without a doubt, the Paris agreement is historic.

It provides some much-needed relief to the U.N. process and the leaders of the world who suffered a major setback after the Copenhagen breakdown in 2009. It lets a term-limited president of the United States claim to have set laudably ambitious goals, and it lets him enjoy his retirement, sipping margaritas on a beach somewhere while others try to implement actual actions to meet the goals.

It gives the protesters something to support (the 1.5 degree goal), and it gives the business community quite a bit of wiggle room (for example, nobody is in charge of enforcement, and there are no consequences for missing targets). The fossil fuel lobby seemed to have the least to show for itself. It looks like it will be out of business sometime in the second half of the 21st century. And, in the meantime, oil prices are very low, and (at least in the U.S.) coal companies are feeling the pinch.

Many environmental groups have issued statements of general support for the agreement. Others have been somewhat ambivalent because the only thing missing from the agreement is who, what and how. The Paris agreement’s vision of 100 percent renewable energy and complete phase-out of fossil fuels within just a few decades is inspiring, but inspiration alone will not reduce emissions.

If the world responds with business as usual, the plans presented in Paris are predicted to lead to warming of 3.7 degree Celsius by 2100. This translates into sea level rise of several meters (one scientist estimated 5 to 9 meters per degree), potential food crop failures around the world and a major refugee problem.

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