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    Hotspring 44's Avatar
    Hotspring 44

    Covid, what's next? US, Europe, China: response differences | What Options?

    My posting here is an attempt at being more on the pragmatic than opinionated.

    It is becoming apparent to me that, in America, there are basically 2 completely different ways that people perceive are the choices that are presented to us for minimizing and/or stopping the spread of the COVID-19 virus and others like it that may come up in the future. Neither of which I think there can be a successful compromise between the two.

    One way is the way that China did to deal with Covid-19, and compares it to Europe.

    For one thing, we here in the US, won't be able to do it like China does. Europe will not be able to do it like China either.

    The Chinese method of dealing with Covid-19 is not going to be a viable option for us here in the US. Therefore, a so-called nationwide lock-down that would be comparative to how China does would be impossible to implement here in the US. Any attempt at a nationwide lock-down here in the US would not work. It would cause more harm and would not solve the spread of Covid-19. Recent events should be proof enough of that.

    At this point I will say that there are enough people that don't trust Government or vaccines, whereas, even with enough working vaccines available for the US population, there needs to be a critical mass of people that would have to get the vaccine that would be necessary for a vaccination program to work effectively, (Heard Immunity). I am not so sure reaching that critical mass is likely to happen anytime soon. By, "soon", I mean within the next 2 to 3 years not 2 to 3 months.

    If there is a vaccine program that is enough in volume to be available for every human in the USA by the last quarter of next year, (2021), and the vaccine itself is at least 95% or more effective for the people who get the vaccine, it does not necessarily mean that it will work as intended. I think there is a large enough number of people who won't ever voluntarily get the vaccine for either themselves or their children within that time-frame, if ever. Therefore, the Covid-19 virus and others like it that may pop up in the future may be like flu in the sense of it being here with us, potentially forever.

    In the US it is going to come down to, who, and what, is going to get sacrificed?

    Example 1:
    Adults that refuse to get the vaccine are going to be more prone to contracting the virus, and some of them will be asymptomatic and spread the virus. That is not an assumption or a political statement is an unavoidable fact, and should be undeniable, but of course, there will be those who would even deny that. Never mind them, because they already have their minds made up. It is a waste of time and energy to try to convince them to change their minds, because the vast majority of them won't.

    It is a reasonable conclusion to make, that, those who refuse to get a 95% effective vaccine are going to, whether knowingly, caring or not, some will spread the virus. It is inevitable that some will cause somebody else's untimely death due to a preventable spread of Covid-19...

    ... Whereas:
    Many Americans would, in essence, be saying: For the sake of the nation, Sacrificing some of those who are the most vulnerable, those who have major immune deficiency, diabetes, certain respiratory conditions, etc. and those who cannot take the vaccine for whatever physical, medical reason is something that we are going to have to accept as, "fact", "truth", "reality", and or "scientifically proven" etc. to be the best and or the only way America can possibly cope with Covid-19...
    ... There are those who would obviously use a word other than "sacrifice", but I'm using the word sacrifice because it's my prerogative to describe it that way, because to me that is how I interpret it... ... I'm not necessarily saying that to sacrifice is wrong per se. It is what it is.

    Example 2:
    Targeted closures of hot-spots, (not nationwide "lock-downs"),
    testing with good quality tests that have a high-accuracy percentage rate, a well organized and accurate contact tracing system, timely follow-ups, and eventually an effective vaccine is the most likely thing doable here in the US. However, that comes with the caveat: There must a critical mass of cooperation in the country as a whole. A considerable higher level of cooperation, then what there is currently.

    In example 2, Many Americans would, in essence, be saying: For the sake of the nation, Sacrificing some freedom of movement, (at specified times, not permanently, and not Nationwide), and possibly other things that are considered a right but is not specifically written into the Constitution, in other words, is "inferred".

    Sacrificing the inferred "freedom of choice", for example, a parents "right" to refuse to have their child vaccinated and other things such as, for example, inferred "right" to their child's attendance in public school without being "required" to have their child vaccinated, (children being vaccinated for specific diseases is already a requirement written into law in many locations of the US)…
    … Or, alternatively, some kind of a right, (inferred again… … Generally speaking, policy on the executive federal level), that would otherwise, because of their choice of refusing to have their child vaccinated, would, require the government to pay for their choice of school for their child who did not have the vaccination such as the use of a private school. In part, that's a different issue for another thread, but I am mentioning it here because it does matter at this moment because "the economy" is the largest major factor that people in the US on each of the otherwise opposing sides are concerned with. The economy is the biggest issue that is dividing the country the most at the moment. The economy it is directly related to how effective the response, or lack of, to Covid-19 hinges on.

    I don't know if there is a achievable compromise that would work. It doesn't look to be possible to make a functional compromise between the opposing differences. Therefore, without better reasoning it is a stark choice for anybody to have to make.

    I suppose there is a 3rd choice to just drop everything and allow, (nature), the disease to take its course without any precautions whatsoever and sacrifice many millions of people's lives in hopes of 'natural' "heard immunity".

    I predict:
    There will be a compromise situation on the federal level that won't be as effective as either of the 2 main sacrifice scenarios I mentioned. I'm not so sure what it will be, but I do know people will complain, take sides spread conspiracy theories, etc., none of which will help.

    Some States will keep their vaccination requirements for schoolchildren and the Supreme Court will not overrule those States.

    Some people will use their choice to not have their children vaccinated and use their so-called religious beliefs as reasoning to sue states so they can send their kids to private school with taxpayer funding. Furthermore, because of the funding issue, it is likely to eventually get to the Supreme Court.

    I think the outcome in the Supreme Court will uphold States Rights because it involves giving taxpayer money for school choice, not religion, which are 2 separate issues. However, the Supreme Court may decide the Federal Government has to pay out of the General Fund for those Private Schools, but I doubt that it will. If it comes to that, I believe the SCOTUS will send very specific issues back to the lower courts ultimately. Which leaves it pretty close to where it is now.
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