Bad News

[Thad]

With the data on how long this virus lives on surfaces, how long it can be suspended as an aerosol, how far it can blow in the wind. I am coming close to saying something and agreeing with someone I virulently hate. But this social distancing is just prolonging something that will inevitably happen, everyone is going to get exposure to this virus. The flattening the curve should be thought of as time to marshal forces organize strategies prepare supplies because this is going to re-surge again.
and so I say the infamous thing. " The cure can't be worse than the disease!"

I have perfected the art of social distancing, I have no pony in this show to compel this statement.

So in regards to another thread of how this social distancing should end, then it should be when supply lines have been established particular to health response and locations to house sick people and dead bodies, then its time to attempt a resume.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

I completely disagree. Your view is way too negative, both on exposure and transmission. You are embracing worst case. We should keep trying to keep the numbers down until we can come up with therapeutics and vaccines, testing etc. We will have a therapeutic by fall. So says Fauchi. He has been pretty accurate. Italy has started adding to the list of essential services a little at a time. That is the way to do it when we get over the hump.
If your view was accurate half China would be infected, and it is not.

With the data on how long this virus lives on surfaces, how long it can be suspended as an aerosol, how far it can blow in the wind. ...

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

In looking at the above graph being used by Sonoma County Health we can see on our present course of lockdown they expect to see about 1500 hospitalizations at the peak with a 2.5 infection rate and about 5000 with a 3 infection rate. We could do well below those numbers as models have been running on the high side. It would appear to me based on the first model the general total expected infection rate 5 to 10 percent of the population in Sonoma County. That would be based on a presumed average hospital stay of 10 to 15 days.(my guess)

These models do not incorporate expanded rapid testing, antibody testing, improved contact tracing and strict quarantine, universal mask wearing in public, all things I expect will come online in the next few months. It's also very likely we will have effective therapeutics by the 100 day mark and vaccines by 150 days.

This idea we should just open it up is both cruel, insane and not possible. We can see from these models that our Sonoma County hospitals would be 6 times past capacity. Most wouldn't even be able to get oxygen.
We have a consumer driven economy. People aren't going to restaurants, ball games, concerts, shopping malls, airplane trips, cruises, hotels until they feel its safe to do so. Let the hospitals get swamped six times over and you will prolong that period.

[jesswolfe]

Yes, we will all likely get infected over time, unless we have a vaccine. The point of physical distancing is to decrease the number of people each person will infect. They are thinking that with no mitigation in place, the infection rate (R0) is about 6. So if you are infected you will likely infect 6 others. With physical distancing, that drops to 1.3. Which means it will take longer to move thru the population. Which also means that the rate of people who will end up in the hospital will be more manageable. So far our numbers are manageable, unlike states that have no physical distancing or other measures in place. If we just stop, and everyone gets back to normal, it will blow up to an unmanageable number of people getting hospitalized and dying. This has given us time to prepare.

[santoshimatajaya]

try listening to this US virologist

focusing on the Korean Covid 19 experience

very compelling info on the virus,
on the mysteriousness and unknown about this virus, its power and prowess
info on vaccines
info on masks
etc

[caromia333]

I think you have clearly laid out what the experts are saying ... thank YOU for your courage to share this.

"Perhaps many things inside you have been transformed; perhaps somewhere, someplace deep inside your being, you have undergone important changes while you were sad.”
Rainer Maria Rilke

With the data on how long this virus lives on surfaces, how long it can be suspended as an aerosol, how far it can blow in the wind. I am coming close to saying something and agreeing with someone I virulently hate. But this social distancing is just prolonging something that will inevitably happen, everyone is going to get exposure to this virus. The flattening the curve should be thought of as time to marshal forces organize strategies prepare supplies because this is going to re-surge again.
and so I say the infamous thing. " The cure can't be worse than the disease!"

I have perfected the art of social distancing, I have no pony in this show to compel this statement.

So in regards to another thread of how this social distancing should end, then it should be when supply lines have been established particular to health response and locations to house sick people and dead bodies, then its time to attempt a resume.

[podfish]

.... so I say the infamous thing. " The cure can't be worse than the disease!" particular to health response and locations to house sick people and dead bodies, then its time to attempt a resume.

Here's the thing. The only reason the cure is so bad is because we won't do it right. The cure is not to impoverish everyone and destroy business. The cure is to prevent people from coming into contact with each other.

So, if you preserve 99.9% of the status quo as far as our economic system goes, sure, you impoverish millions of people and destroy many businesses. But it's not an option to just let people interact as much as they did before, because so many will get sick and many of them will die that you won't have a satisfactory simulation of what was there before -- it's going to change anyway. The economic system will change anyway, peoples' behavior will change in a way that destroys several industries anyway, but, what, it'll seem more 'natural'?

We are actually being forced to a new economic system -- that's the real cure, and let's hope people don't refuse to accept the doctors' advice because it's too inconvenient. Plenty of people won't take their meds, we're perfectly capable of going that way, but the outcomes of such an action is very poor.

[Barry]

Shit is going to change in all directions, fast. There's been a massive, sudden, persistent destabilization. Everything is in play, everything will be refactored, all agenda's will be reshuffled, recalibrated, and redeployed, including each of our lives.

The threat to the economic system that I see, is the multi-trillion dollar societal bailout. It may well be the best thing to do, and continue doing, but it's going to shake the system to its core. To the extent that it doesn't collapse, I'll count it as a good thing, considering the alternative. It may well be the birth pains of something lie a universal basic income plus public health care.

One thing capitalism is good at, is flexibility. Democracy, when it functions, can also be flexible.

The key attribute that is brought to the fore in this crisis is that we are all in this together. Everybody needs to physical distance, the economy needs to be protected, both with respect to people's financial lives, and with functioning markets for essential goods and services.

I thought Donald Trump was the wrecking ball to create a new (green?) future. He was just the warmup act.

[Thad]

It seems unless you can afford to remove to a far extent, then privacy safeguards might need to fall by the wayside for a while to create a working formula with how to move forward with this.

One thing being broadcast on sky news is a phone app that is big brother incarnate but it goes like this.



Apple and Google Team Up to ‘Contact Trace’ the Coronavirus
The technology giants said they would embed a feature in iPhones and Android devices to enable users to track infected people they’d come close to.


OAKLAND, Calif. — In one of the most far-ranging attempts to halt the spread of the coronavirus, Apple and Google said they were building software into smartphones that would tell people if they were recently in contact with someone who was infected with it.

The technology giants said they were teaming up to release the tool within several months, building it into the operating systems of the billions of iPhones and Android devices around the world. That would enable the smartphones to constantly log other devices they come near, enabling what is known as “contact tracing” of the disease. People would opt in to use the tool and voluntarily report if they became infected.

The unlikely partnership between Google and Apple, fierce rivals who rarely pass up an opportunity to criticize each other, underscores the seriousness of the health crisis and the power of the two companies whose software runs almost every smartphone in the world. Apple and Google said their joint effort came together in just the last two weeks.
Their work could prove to be significant in slowing the spread of the coronavirus. Public-health authorities have said that improved tracking of infected people and their contacts could slow the pandemic, especially at the start of an outbreak, and such measures have been effective in places like South Korea that also conducted mass virus testing.

Yet two of the world’s largest tech companies harnessing virtually all of the smartphones on the planet to trace people’s connections raises questions about the reach these behemoths have into individuals’ lives and society.
“It could be a useful tool but it raises privacy issues,” said Dr. Mike Reid, an assistant professor of medicine and infectious diseases at the University of California, San Francisco, who is helping San Francisco officials with contact tracing. “It’s not going to be the sole solution, but as part of a robust sophisticated response, it has a role to play.”

Timothy D. Cook, Apple’s chief executive, said on Twitter that the tool would help curb the virus’s spread “in a way that also respects transparency & consent.” Sundar Pichai, Google’s chief, also posted on Twitter that the tool has “strong controls and protections for user privacy.”

With the tool, people infected with the coronavirus would notify a public health app that they have it, which would then alert phones that had recently come into proximity with that person’s device. The companies would need to get public-health authorities to agree to link their app to the tool.

President Trump said on Friday that his administration planned to look at the tool.
“It’s very new, new technology. It’s very interesting,” he said. “But a lot of people worry about it in terms of a person’s freedom.”

Privacy is a concern given that Google, in particular, has a checkered history of collecting people’s data for its online advertising business. The internet search company came under fire in 2018 after it said that disabling people’s location history on Android phones would not stop it from collecting location data.

Apple, which has been one of the biggest critics of Google’s collection of user data, has not built a significant business around using data to sell online advertising. Still, the company has access to a wealth of information about its users, from their location to their health.

There are already third-party tools for contact tracing, including from public health authorities and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In March, the government of Singapore introduced a similar coronavirus contact-tracing app, called TraceTogether, that detects mobile phones that are nearby.

But given the number of iPhones and Android devices in use worldwide, Apple and Google said they were hoping to make tracing efforts by public health authorities more effective by reaching more people. They also said they would provide their underlying technology to the third-party apps to make them more reliable.

Daniel Weitzner, a principal research scientist at M.I.T.’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and who was one of those behind the school’s contract tracing app, said Google and Apple’s partnership will help health officials save time and resources in developing their own applications to track the virus’ spread.

One challenge for third-party apps is that they must run constantly — 24 hours a day, seven days a week — to be effective. Google said some Android smartphone manufacturers shut down those applications to save battery life.
Apple and Google said their tool would also constantly run in the background if people opt to use it, logging nearby devices through the short-range wireless technology Bluetooth. But it would eat up less battery life and be more reliable than third-party apps, they said.

Once someone reports his or her infection to a public-health app, the tool will send the phone’s so-called broadcast beacons, or anonymous identifiers connected to the device, to central computer servers.

Other phones will constantly check those servers for the broadcast beacons of devices they had come near in the past 14 days. If there is a match, those people will receive an alert that they had likely come into contact with an infected person.

Apple and Google said they were discussing how much information to include in those alerts with health officials, aiming to strike a balance between being helpful while also protecting the privacy of those who have the coronavirus.

“This data could empower members of the general population to make informed decisions about their own health in terms of self-quarantining,” said Dr. Reid. “But it doesn’t replace the public health imperative that we scale up contact tracing in the public health departments” around the world.

Apple and Google said they would make the tool’s underlying technology available to third-party apps by mid-May and publicly release the tool “in the coming months.” The companies said the tool would not collect devices’ locations — it only tracked proximity to other devices — and would keep people anonymous in the central servers.

Google and Apple’s approach aims to resolve one of the hurdles facing government and private efforts to create contact tracing applications: a lack of common technical standards. The European Commission, the executive of the 27-nation bloc, said on Wednesday that “a fragmented and uncoordinated approach risks hampering the effectiveness” of such apps.

Ashkan Soltani, an independent cybersecurity researcher, cautioned that surveillance tools that start as voluntary often become required through public policy decisions. China, for instance, has introduced a color-coded coronavirus surveillance app that automatically decides whether someone must stay at home or may go outside and use public transportation.

“The danger is, as you roll out these voluntary solutions and they gain adoption, it’s more likely that they are going to become compulsory,” said Mr. Soltani, a former chief technologist for the Federal Trade Commission.

Mr. Soltani said the tool could also be a way for the tech companies to pre-empt efforts by governments in the United States or elsewhere to mandate a more invasive collection of data to combat the pandemic.

“The tool permits them to address the administration’s ask to ‘do something’ while also relieving them of the responsibility of building the app and collecting the data themselves,” he said.

Natasha Singer and Jennifer Valentino-DeVries contributed reporting from New York, Adam Satariano contributed reporting from London and David McCabe from Washington.

[santoshimatajaya]

i would not call this Bad or Good News. i would call it Real News. Those trying to lead a cheerleading, rosey colored glasses campaign on this, are as always, deceiving themselves and others who believe in their ungrounded, unfounded, unfactual, denials of 'what is.'

How can we successfully deal with 'what is' if we cannot recognize & accept it fully
in order to find solutions
and bear the brunt of the catastrophe
we humans have created
to a large extent,
ie. the delay in being transparent in November, December,
January, February~

in having 'open air' markets
where animals are slaughtered

(animal meat is not necessary anyway,
another subject
(sure i will get blow back from this,
but "when are we going to stop eating each other anyway?!")

part of our 'growing up' process~
getting Real
that includes myself~

With the data on how long this virus lives on surfaces, how long it can be suspended as an aerosol, how far it can blow in the wind. I am coming close to saying something and agreeing with someone I virulently hate. But this social distancing is just prolonging something that will inevitably happen, everyone is going to get exposure to this virus. The flattening the curve should be thought of as time to marshal forces organize strategies prepare supplies because this is going to re-surge again.
and so I say the infamous thing. " The cure can't be worse than the disease!"

I have perfected the art of social distancing, I have no pony in this show to compel this statement.

So in regards to another thread of how this social distancing should end, then it should be when supply lines have been established particular to health response and locations to house sick people and dead bodies, then its time to attempt a resume.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

No we are not all going to get infected by this or any other virus. That is not possible if a person gains immunity after being infected and recovering. It could get up to 60 percent if absolutely no mitigation measures were taken, but that won't happen either. I guess there is some weird comfort in embracing the worst case, but that is usually wrong.

Most likely the first wave will pass through by July, Not even 10 percent in Sonoma County will ever become infected. The warmer weather will help mitigation, By October there will be a vaccine, and if not there will be home tests, and good contact tracing. Therapeutics to cut death rates by 75% even if you do get infected.

Yes, we will all likely get infected over time, unless we have a vaccine...

[jesswolfe]

Interesting perspective. We won't have a vaccine by October. It's not possible to do all the testing required to make sure the vaccine is safe and effective and able to be produced in that timeframe. It takes at least a year to a year and a half, which is quite a lot faster than most vaccines. There are currently two versions in testing, with several other possibilities.

Also, they don't know if people have immunity after having this virus, or how long it lasts. There are a subset of folks who get sick after recovering and being cleared as negative for the virus. It's not clear if this is because they aren't actually clear or if the immunity is weak. It looks like this percentage of folks exists if you factor in possible false negatives. Its not clear how long a person is contagious. We also don't know why some people get sick and some don't. Some cold viruses are coronaviruses and they don't all trigger immunity after you have them, meaning you can catch them more than once. They are still studying whether serum from previously infected people is a possible treatment. There is a lot that is not known.

And, to complicate things, we as humans don't have innate immunity to this virus. It's a zoonotic virus that hasn't been in people before. In fact we aren't even sure how it made its way to humans, although at some point is spent time in bats. So technically we all can be infected by it. There are no weaker versions. One thing positive is that it doesn't mutate as much as the flu does. Last time I checked there are 7 different versions circulating.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

A vaccine against the coronavirus could be ready by September, according to a scientist leading one of Britain’s most advanced teams.

Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at Oxford University, told The Times on Saturday that she is “80% confident” the vaccine would work, and could be ready by September. Experts have warned the public that vaccines typically take years to develop, and one for the coronavirus could take between 12 to 18 months at best.

In the case of the Oxford team, however, “it’s not just a hunch, and as every week goes by we have more data to look at,” Gilbert told the London newspaper

AND THIS

However, Moderna’s CEO Stephan Bancel told Goldman Sachs on Friday that the mRNA-1273 drug could be available to emergency workers by fall, according to a regulatory filing from the company. Per The Street, Bacel said that “while a commercially available vaccine is not likely to be available for at least 12 to 18 months, it is possible that under emergency use, a vaccine could be available to some people, possibly including healthcare professionals, in the fall of 2020.”
Bacel also said the company is “scaling up manufacturing capacity toward the production of millions of doses per month, in the potential form of individual or multidose vials.” The company added in the filing that “the ability of the company to make millions of doses per month is contingent on investments in the scale-up and further buildout of the company’s existing manufacturing infrastructure.”

[jesswolfe]

“80% confident” the vaccine would work, and could be ready by September... ok, but what does this actually mean? A vaccine can't be 80%. And what does she mean by "ready"? It has to be not only effective but safe. And it has to be able to be reproduced. A million doses a month is not enough to be effective for the number of people we have just in this country. We also have to worry about all the other countries that are affected by this virus. This isn't just our problem. And who do you choose to give the vaccine to first?

Saying that basically everything will be fine by October isn't realistic or helpful. Yes we get more info every day and that is all good. But it will take a very long time for all of us to recover from this. Besides being a deadly virus, it has exposed some deep, ongoing systemic problems in our culture that will take a lot of thoughtful, careful work to address. We have a lot of traumatized people who will need a lot of help to heal. Assuming that everything will all be ok and we can go back to "normal" isn't realistic. I would hope that we would learn from this and make some thoughtful changes so that we don't have so many people who crash when bad things happen. We just got to see that our culture is built on a lot of instability that we have all been trying to figure out how to live with.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

No one has said it will all be better by October. I believe it will be far better than today. There will be treatments that will help the sick. The Gilead drug Remdesivir could very well halt the virus"s replication. We will know how helpful by the end of the month. Actemra made by Roche could to keep the bodies immune system from destroying your lungs.

Perhaps more hopeful is Regeneron's platform, they take antibodies from a recovered patient and make identical antibodies in the lab. This is how they cure ebola.

Vaccinoligists have said there is good chance of a vaccine by Fall. Not one epidemiologist has said we will all get this nasty virus.

We all have a choice. We can live in the darkest room in this house or we can live in the one that gets sunlight in the morning

“80% confident” the vaccine would work, and could be ready by September... ok, but what does this actually mean? ...

[Mayacaman]

No we are not all going to get infected by this or any other virus. That is not possible if a person gains immunity after being infected and recovering...

Very important words there, Goat Rock Ukulele, "...That is not possible if a person gains immunity after being infected and recovering..."

Because, the human Bios - that which lies within us - is, in truth, a marvelous / miraculous Organism. -As I assembled over here:

= Read Up, & Remember :


white blood cells create antibodies

white blood cells create antibodies to fight viruses

antibodies fight viruses

antibodies devour viruses

white blood cells , antibodies devour viruses


Therefore, with a Healthy Immune System
(a Combination of Electro-therapy & Colloidal
Silver-water can give you an edge on that score)
your own White Blood Cells can "Map" All Viruses,
& Create, within Your Own Bios - Miraculously - the
Necessary Antibodies to Devour Any Coronavirus

In Sum :

The LORD thy God in the Midst of thee is Mighty

( Zephaniah 3:17 )

* He* is* Before* All things* and * All things * in* Him* hold together *

(Colossians 1:17 )


Bottom Line:


I would hope that you west county folks would "look up" {and within ) for
your Redemption - Rather than to the C.D.C. & Big Pharma, for a Vaccine...

[podfish]

...Vaccinoligists have said there is good chance of a vaccine by Fall. Not one epidemiologist has said we will all get this nasty virus...

I suspect that's where you're getting pushback. I've yet to hear anyone say that wide distribution of a new vaccine is possible in even double that timeframe. I'm not sure that you're saying that -- maybe you're just saying it'll be entering testing, which is certainly very plausible. But as I said, if any medication, much less vaccine, has been taken from development to distribution in less than a year, it's been poorly publicized.

same as for some of the drugs being pitched. People sure seem worried about mercury in vaccines, but (maybe different) people seem way willing to deal with unfortunate little side effects like heart and vision problems that go along with many of the drugs being pitched.

[Thad]

Here's the Elephant in the room.

For a long time the harshness of life kept the human specie fit and able and there was evolution.

The fact there are enough people in America to vote trump to the presidency proves devolution

There are 7.8 billion people on the planet and that's too many.

[jesswolfe]

So first phase safety testing in people is possible by September. That’s far from being ready. You can only live in the brightest room if you are privileged enough to have a room. If you are one of the many who are now living on the edge - trying to figure out the basics of food, housing and health - it takes all of your energy to make it thru the day. And there is no guarantee that things won’t get much worse before they get better. Hiding isn’t going to help us. As a community we need to be helping each other. Fighting for each other. Not always the lightest subjects but very necessary. Hope is possible if we hope together.

[Goat Rock Ukulele]

Phase one human testing began March 16th. Almost a month ago. Moderna says phase 2 could begin this spring.

China's CanSino Bio has advanced Covid-19 vaccine into phase 2 on preliminary safety data.

You won't get an argument from me about people helping and hope.

So first phase safety testing in people is possible by September. .

[Mayacaman]

Here's the Elephant in the room.

For a long time the harshness of life kept the human specie fit and able and there was evolution.

The fact there are enough people in America to vote trump to the presidency proves devolution

There are 7.8 billion people on the planet and that's too many.

Thad, I beg to differ. There are not "too many" people on the planet. There is plenty of room in North America and South America to provide a house in the country-with acreage for everyone who currently lives on the whole planet. –And there is ample Room in Africa to do the same.

As I shared with you all, the B.L.M. is sitting on almost a Quarter of a Billion acres. The "problem" lies in the fact that we are saddled with an over-class - commonly called "billionaires" - who want to have it All.

The power elite have been plotting and planning to depopulate the planet for a long time. They are the ones who have been spouting that anti-life rhetoric for the past fifty years. Their “Plan” is now in full swing. The plutocrats are busy, working for a neo-feudal future.

Please Thad, get over the thought that '...7.8 billion people on the planet are too many...' -As a thought /meme, It is not original with you; it has been implanted in your mind through repetition and auto-suggestion.