Efren Carrillo Update

Efren is probably out, in my opinion, from reading the powerful North Bay Labor Council's request that he resign, signed by its ED Lisa Maldonado, a leading Latino activist and from today's PD article. The remaining Supervisors made fairly strong statements on Tuesday, not supporting Efren continuing. This is good for those of us struggling against pesticides, since he did not respond to our many attempts to meet with him over weeks. Another activist at the Sups meeting pointed out that the 5th District is without representation at this time, so this matter will hopefully be resolved soon.

Gov. Jerry Brown would then appoint a care-taking replacement to finish out his term in 2016. It would be likely to be a former 5th District Sup, like Ernie Carpenter or Mike Reilly. Either would be better for us than Efren. That person would probably not run in the next election. Likely and good candidates to run would be Craig Litwin and/or Lawrence Jaffe. Have you heard rumors of anyone else?


If Efren does not resign, he would probably be recalled. Then there would apparently be a special election, with many candidates. I would welcome your assessments of what you think is likely to happen in what may be a rapidly changing situation.
Shepherd

Rue Furch. Not Mike Reilly.

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Posted in reply to the post by Shepherd:

.Gov. Jerryg. It would be likely to be a former 5th District Sup, like Ernie Carpenter or Mike Reilly. Either would be better for us than Efren.

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I nominate Shepherd Bliss for our next supervisor, unless it would take time away from his brilliant and masterful analysis of the Hobbs rape of the land.....

Is there an official recall effort underway on Efren Carillo?

From what I've read, no. They are waiting to see if he is charged with a felony or guilty of one to just fire him, as far as I can understand. However the local labor unions are gunning for him aggressively with highly publicized calls for his resignation. We need a good investigative reporter.

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Posted in reply to the post by LibertyLady:

Is there an official recall effort underway on Efren Carillo?

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Is the Press Democrat not doing its job? I wouldn't be terribly surprised if that's the case. Who could be this investigative reporter? From where would this person come?

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Posted in reply to the post by Karen:

From what I've read, no. They are waiting to see if he is charged with a felony or guilty of one to just fire him, as far as I can understand. However the local labor unions are gunning for him aggressively with highly publicized calls for his resignation. We need a good investigative reporter.

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Correction
The latest from the PD, says a friend, is this: Alice Chan of the Democratic Party of Sonoma County told the S.C. Board of Supes that Carrillo has until September 15 to resign, as has the North Bay Labor Council (which includes 60,000 members!!!), or else, her group which she has formed will begin the process of formally recalling him.

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Posted in reply to the post by Karen:

From what I've read, no. They are waiting to see if he is charged with a felony or guilty of one to just fire him, as far as I can understand. However the local labor unions are gunning for him aggressively with highly publicized calls for his resignation. We need a good investigative reporter.

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I would prefer a process where the voters decide -- keep him or not. If not, we decide the replacement, and not the governor, or unions, or party machine. In looking at the rules, it looks like it requires a recall petition that is signed by a certain percentage of registered voters in the district - I thought I read somewhere that in our district it would be 20%. I am happy to do some research (several lives ago I was a reporter / editor for a small local paper!) but would prefer to piggyback on others' knowledge. Thanks!

Thanks, LibertyLady, for this post, which makes sense. I would welcome the research you mention and receiving a report on it.

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Posted in reply to the post by LibertyLady:

I would prefer a process where the voters decide -- keep him or not. If not, we decide the replacement, and not the governor, or unions, or party machine. In looking at the rules, it looks like it requires a recall petition that is signed by a certain percentage of registered voters in the district - I thought I read somewhere that in our district it would be 20%. I am happy to do some research (several lives ago I was a reporter / editor for a small local paper!) but would prefer to piggyback on others' knowledge. Thanks!

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Is September 15 an ultimatum date or is it based on existing statute (laws on political misconduct, etc) or some other reason?

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Posted in reply to the post by Karen:

Correction
The latest from the PD, says a friend, is this: Alice Chan of the Democratic Party of Sonoma County told the S.C. Board of Supes that Carrillo has until September 15 to resign, as has the North Bay Labor Council (which includes 60,000 members!!!), or else, her group which she has formed will begin the process of formally recalling him.

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I had a fruitful discussion this afternoon with Gloria Colter, assistant registrar of voters for Sonoma County. There is also some helpful information on the state web site.

Clearly, it would require a LOT of work from the registered voters in District 5 for a recall effort to be successful. Here are the requirements:

1. Twenty registered voters from District 5 would complete a Notice of Intent to Recall, and submit it to Efren. Within 7 days of the submittal, we would also have to file a copy with Registrar of Voters. A legal notice has to be provided in the newspaper as well. Efren would have 7 days to provide an answer to the notice.

2. The county would review the Notice of Intent, and would have 10 days to determine whether it is in order. If not, the process can go back and forth, with the petitioners and the county each having 10 days to respond to the other.

3. Once the Notice of Intent is found to be in order, we would have 120 days to circulate. The number of required signatures from registered voters in District 5 would be about 10,000, or 20% of the roughly 50,000 registered voters in the district. That is a tall order, since only about 22,000 registered voters voted in the June 2012 primary election, when Efren won with 13,152 votes, or 58.4% of the total.

4. After the signatures are collected and validated as correct by the county, an election can be called. At this point, anyone wanting to run on the ballot for supervisor would need to go through the nomination process to be included on the ballot.

Assuming that it would make economic sense to combine the recall election with a regularly scheduled election, the two possibilities in 2014 would be June and November. If we started soon, the June election could be a real possibility.

What are my recommendations?

1. I would like to see a group pursue a Notice of Intent to Recall. I am happy to be part of that group. We need 20 registered voters from District 5.

2. If you are not a registered voter, you can register online at the county's web site, and then take part in this process.

3. By filing a Notice of Intent, we can generate some press coverage and determine whether there is enough support to get us to the recall election.

If the party machine and the unions force Efren to resign, then the Governor will decide his replacement. That would leave the voters out of the loop, as it surely would be a completely political decision.

As a final note, there is nothing magical or legal about the September 15 date. That does seem to be the date that Efren has been given by his "powers that be" to make a decision about resignation.

Hope this helps.

There are many potential candidates who would be much better than myself as a supervisor, including each of the following, whose names have been suggested: Ernie Carpenter, Lawrence Jaffe, Sarah Gurney, and Craig Litwin. I would not be good as an elected official and do not plan to run for office. I am too emotional and introverted for such a role. I feel more comfortable writing about such matters.

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Posted in reply to the post by Sara S:

I nominate Shepherd Bliss for our next supervisor, unless it would take time away from his brilliant and masterful analysis of the Hobbs rape of the land.....

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Posted in reply to the post by Shepherd:

There are many potential candidates who would be much better than myself as a supervisor, including each of the following, whose names have been suggested: Ernie Carpenter, Lawrence Jaffe, Sarah Gurney, and Craig Litwin.

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And Rue Furch!

Two weeks ago I too made the journey to the County Elections Dept. office and spoke with the staff there (did not catch the lady's name, but she did appear to be in charge there). She referred me to the California state Government Code section 25060 to 25062:
https://www.leginfo.ca.gov/cgi-bin/d...le=25060-25062

There is a hard deadline to be considered here: if Carrillo resigns, the timing of his resignation determines when an election will be held to vote on his successor:

If the resignation is effective before 27 Dec. 2013, then a replacement will be voted on in the June 2014 primary election.

If the resignation is effective on or after 27 Dec. 2013, then a replacement will be voted on in the November 2014 general election.

In either case, if Carrillo resigns or is removed due to inability to fulfill his duties, the governor appoints someone to fill the vacancy until the next regular election or for the remainder of the term.

The idea of Jerry Brown Part Deux appointing one of my county supervisors sends a chill down my spine!! If we want to make our own decisions instead giving that power to someone who does not have our best interest at heart, a recall action is the way to go.

Recall or no, it certainly looks like there will be an early election for 5th District Supervisor. Now is the time to be getting a PAC organized and start vetting candidates.

I must add my thoughts to this.

Sebastacat feels that if, in fact, Efren does decide to resign (which I sincerely have my doubts that he will),
and Governor Jerry Brown does get the opportunity to appoint someone to replace him, it will be absolutely
imperative that all concerned fifth-district residents write/e-mail/communicate their choices to him about who
the interim replacement should be.

And when a replacement is appointed, who will hopefully be someone who will have had the widespread support of the citizens of the fifth district, I feel that we should let things settle down a bit and give any serious potential candidates some much-needed time to reflect and consider running for this very important post.

After this entire bizarre episode which has scarred the fifth district -- hopefully, not irreparably -- I truly feel that a
"cooling off" period is needed for some wounds to heal before we embark on the task of choosing a full-time successor for the next full four-year term.

Just a thought.

I am the "Alice Chan" referred to in this comment, and there are a couple of inaccuracies that should be corrected:
1. I am not a member of the Democratic Party of Sonoma County
2. I have not made any statement at all to the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors
3. I have not formed any group.
I am a co-chair of the Coalition for Grassroots Progress www.grassrootsprogress.org and I did tell a reporter for the Press Democrat, in my capacity as co-chair, that CGP has said if Carrillo has not resigned by September 15, we will begin the process of launching a petition drive for a recall.

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Posted in reply to the post by Karen:

Correction
The latest from the PD, says a friend, is this: Alice Chan of the Democratic Party of Sonoma County told the S.C. Board of Supes that Carrillo has until September 15 to resign, as has the North Bay Labor Council (which includes 60,000 members!!!), or else, her group which she has formed will begin the process of formally recalling him.

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I appreciate Alice's response below. I was surprised to read the previous email referring to her, and am glad that Alice has corrected it. Alice has a long history or working with progressive groups in Sonoma County. I am glad to hear that she and the Coalition for Grassroots Progress plans to launch a petition drive for a recall if Efren does not resign by Sept. 15. I think it imperative that he resign or be recalled as soon as possible, so the 5th District has a representative.

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Posted in reply to the post by Alysson Wonderland:

I am the "Alice Chan" referred to in this comment, and there are a couple of inaccuracies that should be corrected:

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This may seem a bit obvious, but if Mr. Carillo does not resign, and quickly, it shows that he is blatantly more concerned with his own career than in serving the people who elected him. And thus, there would be the need to recall and replace him.

He has already deprived his constituents of effective, undistracted representation, and I have little doubt that he will be filing Workman's Comp forms to cover the costs of his treatment, costing the county even more. He IS getting treatment, right?

:Yinyangv::idea:

OK, Henry Bernard, come on back. This shows what bullshit "Karen" feels free to post as truth....

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Posted in reply to the post by Alysson Wonderland:

I am the "Alice Chan" referred to in this comment, and there are a couple of inaccuracies that should be corrected:

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maybe you've missed something but earlier in the thread it was shown that if he resigns then his replacement will be appointed by Brown. If he is recalled then the public will elect someone else in the next election. Until then, the gov would appoint someone to replace him. If the people want to vote the supervisor in themselves then it must be a recall, according to what I've read here. Did I get that right?

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Posted in reply to the post by Ted Pole:

This may seem a bit obvious, but if Mr. Carillo does not resign, and quickly, it shows that he is blatantly more concerned with his own career than in serving the people who elected him. And thus, there would be the need to recall and replace him.

He has already deprived his constituents of effective, undistracted representation, and I have little doubt that he will be filing Workman's Comp forms to cover the costs of his treatment, costing the county even more. He IS getting treatment, right?

:Yinyangv::idea:

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No, Karen, I didn't miss anything, as far as I can tell. My comment was based on the idea that whatever the process used to get a functioning bureaucrat in there to replace Carillo, the sooner the better. And that there should be no doubt that Carillo must go, and the fact that he is taking over a month and a half to determine what is obvious to everyone else in the county, just goes to show how diminished his faculties are.

:lalalala::Violinist:

My apologies for not having my facts straight.

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Posted in reply to the post by Sara S:

OK, Henry Bernard, come on back. This shows what bullshit "Karen" feels free to post as truth....

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Sorry, folks. But Sebastacat supplied Karen with some of the wrong information after reading the following
article in the Press Democrat:

"The potential need for a recall of Efren Carrillo became even more evident today with the failure of most
members of the Board of Supervisors to say what needs to be said: Carrillo should resign, said
Alice Chan, a Sebastopol resident and Democratic Party activist.

"A local group she helps lead, The Coalition for Grassroots Progress, has called on the supervisor
to resign by September 15 or face a recall election."

I apologize to Alice and Karen for any inconvenience that this may have caused -
and hope to now be regarded as a good kitty, not a bad!

If a recall action gets enough valid signatures to force a recall election, the replacement for the recalled office-holder will be chosen by the electorate as part of that election. part of the recall process is to nominate replacement candidates to be on the ballot in the recall election.

A recall ballot asks two questions:
1. should the incumbent (Carrrillo in this case) be removed from office? yes or no
2. which of these candidates do you vote for to replace the incumbent?

Again, the only way for the electorate to be 100% in the driver's seat with this situation is to have a successful recall action triggering a recall election. If the incumbent resigns or is removed, we have to deal with one of Jerry Brown's goons on the Board of Supervisors until the next regularly scheduled election. Yeeechhh!!!!

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Posted in reply to the post by Karen:

maybe you've missed something but earlier in the thread it was shown that if he resigns then his replacement will be appointed by Brown. If he is recalled then the public will elect someone else in the next election. Until then, the gov would appoint someone to replace him. If the people want to vote the supervisor in themselves then it must be a recall, according to what I've read here. Did I get that right?

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I'm a little torn between the two possibilities:

1. Get Carrillo out ASAP, no matter who replaces him and how.

2. Wait until a successful recall election so the people can elect their representative instead of getting an appointee.

If I had to choose between a mystery person being appointed and Carrillo finishing out the remaining 3 years of the supervisorial term, I'd rather have the mystery person become the new Sup.

Although I dislike the idea of having some stranger being appointed supervisor, I dislike even more that a recall effort unintentionally serves as an opportunity for Carrillo completing the term's full 4 years in office.

What happens if the recall effort becomes an impossible uphill battle? Too expensive? Too few volunteers? An organizational failure? Carrillo gets to laugh his way to the finish line of the full term; 3 more years! And that I do not want to see. In that scenario, I would much rather have an appointee.

Edward

With all due respect, I still assert that the board did say something about firing Carrillo. Please listen to the supervisors' statements here: https://www.pressdemocrat.com/articl...0739993#page=4

I have transcribed this much from Gorin's comment.
"The conversations that I've engaged in and listened to the last couple of weeks caused me to research the county's civil service rules on dismissal and number three, conduct which brings discredit to the county,
number four, disorderly conduct and I know that there have been county employees dismissed for these kind of infractions. As I said before, I hold elected officials to an even higher standard than that... " but i guess she can't fire an elected official. I was confused.

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Posted in reply to the post by Sara S:

OK, Henry Bernard, come on back. This shows what bullshit "Karen" feels free to post as truth....

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Edward:

Excellent observations, and well-stated, too.

To which I will add one thing: I feel that if Efren refuses to resign and forces us to resort to a recall election
to remove him from office that it will be a battle royal which will wind up hurting people of the fifth district for many years to come.

Admit it or not, it will force all of us to "chose sides." And, to play on something that Henry stated so well in a previous post: Battles lines will be drawn. And platforms will be erected.

Sebastacat would like to ask ALL participants on this forum, even his perennial detractors: Is that what you want to see happen?

While I certainly want to have some say in who my next elected representative will be -- since I care, and care deeply, about the west county -- I feel that Efren should do the honorable thing and resign forthwith.

It will accomplish two things:

1. It will allow the process to begin whereby someone may be appointed to replace him, hopefully, with our input to the governor;

2. It will allow us to put this sad chapter in Sonoma County politics behind us, let wounds start to heal, and move forward.

If a recall election happens, yes, I will take sides, but I fear what effect the outcome will have on us all.

As the saying goes: "At what price glory?"

Just curious, but what was public perception of Carrillo's performance prior to the San Diego incident last year?

(Posing this question neither is a endorsement nor a censure of his service.)

Please understand that this is my opinion only.

Sebastacat will now answer the question as follows:

Mr. Smoke and Mirrors, zealously guarding the hands that feed him, making speeches full of
sound and fury -- signifying nothing.

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Posted in reply to the post by Barry:

And Rue Furch!

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Tom Lynch, the original and inimitable Manure Man, is also quite a credible candidate. He also posesses a dandy sense of humor, which I find missing in most political candidates.

"Manure Man?" What's that all about???

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Posted in reply to the post by jbox:

Tom Lynch, the original and inimitable Manure Man, is also quite a credible candidate. He also posesses a dandy sense of humor, which I find missing in most political candidates.

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Was not Tom Lynch a Carrillo appointee?

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Posted in reply to the post by jbox:

Tom Lynch, the original and inimitable Manure Man, is also quite a credible candidate. He also posesses a dandy sense of humor, which I find missing in most political candidates.

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Posted in reply to the post by Edward Mendoza:

"Manure Man?" What's that all about???

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Google it. Tom's story is a great one.

[Here's a good article about it in the Gazette - Barry]

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Posted in reply to the post by jbox:

Tom Lynch, the original and inimitable Manure Man, is also quite a credible candidate.

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I would think being a manure man (or woman) would eminently qualify someone to be a politician.

Though I like the nickname "manure man," as one who shovels shit often on my farm to serve as fertilizer, Tom Lynch would not be as good as any number of other electable people, including Sarah Gurney, Lawrence Jaffe, and Craig Litwin, in my opinion. They would all help us as environmentalists and fight against pesticides, as they already have, whereas Tom does not have such a good history. He has run before and lost. Sarah and Craig have both served as Sebastopol mayors and Lawrence has been president of the Climate Control Campaign and the Sebastopol Grange. They would all be electable and apparently are all likely to run. We do not need a perfect candidate, but we do need one candidate who can prevail over whomever the Doug Bosco people put up to replace their current man in that office.

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Posted in reply to the post by jbox:

Google it. Tom's story is a great one.

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If Efren comes out of rehab and has even a semi reasonable explanation for his shameful behavior and is not charged with a felony crime, then he will probably not resign. We don't know the whole story yet, but we will know more after the next hearing at the end of the month.

A recall effort seems very likely to happen anyway, given that the labor unions are pissed off at him and have a lot of money to support the recall action.

Then it will be up to the voting public to decide if he stays or goes, as it should be, as we were the folks who elected him... twice.

If the recall is an "impossible uphill battle? Too expensive? Too few volunteers? An organizational failure?"... Then I guess we will just have to live with him for the rest of his term, but I'll bet that this incident will have shaken him enough that he will be a changed man. (hopefully a better man)

:kidfight:

If the recall is successful, then we get to choose a new rep.

It's not the end of the world folks... just politics.

Tom

Yeah, except for the fact that he dumped a truckload of it on the steps of City Hall.............

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Posted in reply to the post by Dixon:

I would think being a manure man (or woman) would eminently qualify someone to be a politician.

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Posted in reply to the post by Sara S:

Yeah, except for the fact that he dumped a truckload of it on the steps of City Hall.............

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Sometimes when yer tired of taking so much shit ya gotta give a little bit back. What he did was a great statement and what it said is sometimes you really can fight city hall and sometimes you can win.

Oh, my goodness! This is bringing back SO MANY memories!!

Some of the world's greatest leaders were introverted - Gandhi, Lincoln, Einstein. Introverts usually become leaders out of necessity.

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Posted in reply to the post by Shepherd:

I am too emotional and introverted for such a role. I feel more comfortable writing about such matters.

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Ernire Carpenter would be great; back in the '80s he would come all the way out to Stillwater Cove Ranch periodically, just to keep the country folks informed, and to see what we thought. It wasn't for a photo opportunity, and there weren't any money or grapes influencing him.

I agree that Ernie would be great, if Efren resigns, and then the Governor could appoint him until the 2014 election. He would hold that space well. I seem to remember him indicating that if that happened he would not run in 2014. The biggest problem would be if Erik K. were to replace Efren, at any point. He would probably be worse than Efren, in my opinion.

Eventually we need someone who could be elected in 2014, which I think could be Sarah Gurney, Lawrence Jaffe, Craig Litwin, or someone else who might emerge. Sebastopol Vice-Mayor Robert Jacob would be great, but this is still his first year in office, so 2014 would probably be pre-mature for him to go up. He is also Latino.

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Posted in reply to the post by Sara S:

Ernire Carpenter would be great; back in the '80s he would come all the way out to Stillwater Cove Ranch periodically, just to keep the country folks informed, and to see what we thought. It wasn't for a photo opportunity, and there weren't any money or grapes influencing him.

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Thanks again, Shepherd, for letting those of us who rarely do research know our options....

[QUOTE=Shepherd;169841Eventually we need someone who could be elected in 2014, which I think could be Sarah Gurney, Lawrence Jaffe, Craig Litwin, or someone else who might emerge. Sebastopol Vice-Mayor Robert Jacob would be great, but this is still his first year in office, so 2014 would probably be pre-mature for him to go up. He is also Latino.[/QUOTE]

My only interaction with Ernie Carpenter left a bad taste in my ballot box.

A wealthy land owner wanted to split the orchard property next door to us for two McMansions and the planning department said NO, that does not fit in with the General Plan. Upon appeal, The Board of Supervisors overrode the planning department decision by one vote... you guessed it, Ernie's vote. It seems that the land owner may have (allegedly) contributed to his campaign or something.

All turned out well though and the new neighbors were great, but I guess every politician has a price.

Still, he may have mellowed by now and be as good a candidate as any to take Efren's seat if it is vacated.
Tom

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Posted in reply to the post by Sara S:

Ernire Carpenter would be great; back in the '80s he would come all the way out to Stillwater Cove Ranch periodically, just to keep the country folks informed, and to see what we thought. It wasn't for a photo opportunity, and there weren't any money or grapes influencing him.

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Posted in reply to the post by tomcat:

My only interaction with Ernie Carpenter left a bad taste in my ballot box. ...

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If I'm not mistaken Ernie represented the Preservation ranch folks who wanted to develop it and then kinda tried to do a little dance to distance himself from them during the campaign against Efren, which he lost rather badly. Efren, on the other hand, came down on the right side of the issue and the land was set aside. Politics is complicated and weird, folks, there are rarely black and white no doubt about it issues (except in the minds of some doctrinaire zealots), there are always shades of grey. If anyone thinks Ernie of gonna come in on his white horse and save the day you might want to revisit that. Like any politician he's gonna get pushed and pulled from all directions. Here's the new boss, same as the old boss. Or maybe worse?

Sarah Gurney is about to announce her intention to accept the Governors appointment, and run for the seat next year, all of this assuming Carrillo will be out of office, and that the fix isn't in already on the appointment.

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Posted in reply to the post by Sara S:

Thanks again, Shepherd, for letting those of us who rarely do research know our options....

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I'd rather have Ernie Carpenter over "Manure Man" any day.

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Posted in reply to the post by tomcat:

My only interaction with Ernie Carpenter left a bad taste in my ballot box.

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Posted in reply to the post by Richard Nichols:

Sarah Gurney is about to announce her intention to accept the Governors appointment, and run for the seat next year, all of this assuming Carrillo will be out of office, and that the fix isn't in already on the appointment.

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I would also like to announce my intention to accept the Governor's appointment.

Anyone who thinks that Gov. Jerry Brown and/or the Calif state legislature gives a rat's ass about what we want is either naive or nuts.

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Posted in reply to the post by jbox:

I would also like to announce my intention to accept the Governor's appointment.

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Excuse me, let's not forget Maddy Hirshfield. Maddy has fought for labor unions and the environment of Sonoma County a long time! If there is a gubernatorial appointment Maddy should be considered:
https://www.smartvoter.org/2008/06/0...m/endorse.html

Maddy was the third highest vote getter for the 5th District in 2008, has represented us as Assemblyman Chesbo's District director for many years, and has the support of North Bay Labor.

Feh

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Posted in reply to the post by maryr45:

Excuse me, let's not forget Maddy Hirshfield. Maddy has fought for labor unions and the environment of Sonoma County a long time! If there is a gubernatorial appointment Maddy should be considered:
https://www.smartvoter.org/2008/06/0...m/endorse.html

Maddy was the third highest vote getter for the 5th District in 2008, has represented us as Assemblyman Chesbo's District director for many years, and has the support of North Bay Labor.

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pretty cynical post.

I do not think this is true.

Don't you know the nature of politics?

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Posted in reply to the post by Glia:

Anyone who thinks that Gov. Jerry Brown and/or the Calif state legislature gives a rat's ass about what we want is either naive or nuts.

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"All politics is local"

Hyperlink, above, is from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

The phrase, "All politics is local" is a common phrase in U.S. politics. The former Speaker of the U.S. House Tip O'Neill coined this phrase, which encapsulates the principle that a politician's success is directly tied to his ability to understand and influence the issues of his constituents. Politicians must appeal to the simple, mundane and everyday concerns of those who elect them into office. Those personal issues, rather than big and intangible ideas, are often what voters care most about, according to this principle. Politicians often use this against one another, as well, to hit each other where it hurts most—back at home—rather than on the floor of Congress. The concept is contrary to the notion that most people, somehow, in local elections are casting votes to "send a message" to the highest levels; instead, the principle predicts that most people will not vote for local politicians simply as a means to act on feelings about higher politicians, such as concerns about a current U.S. President. The prediction is that most people who vote, or debate issues, are focused on resolving their local issues.


Example
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During the 1982 Congressional elections, O'Neill's seat was challenged by Massachusetts lawyer Frank McNamara, who had financed most of his campaign with money from oil interests in Oklahoma and Texas. Voters in Massachusetts, plagued by oil prices and a poor economy for many years, felt no love for McNamara and his oil money and instead mocked him as he announced his candidacy on the steps of the US Capitol.
Later during those elections, O'Neill introduced a $1-billion jobs bill to the table. House Republican Leader Robert H. Michel of Peoria, Illinois opposed the bill, but O'Neill delivered an address broadcast in Peoria that showed how many infrastructure problems in Peoria would be fixed by the bill. "By hitting his rival where he lived, O'Neill translated a wholesale debate over national economic policy to the local, retail level" (Matthews 53).

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Posted in reply to the post by tommy:

pretty cynical post.

I do not think this is true.

Don't you know the nature of politics?

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For me the truly disturbing thing is that everyone seems to have convicted Efren Carillo without any sort of trial. Has no one out here ever heard of innocent until proved guilty as a concept??I had the silly illusion that this area had some more substantive understanding of these issues and was as a group more informed about the usefulness of substance abuse treatment and education. The other , and for me, really awful thing to see is how little understanding and education folks seem to have about the idea of alcoholism and addiction as an actual medical condition, one that requires treatment. I do not think anyone who is in the position of needing treatment for this condition is in any position to be making public statements about it, anymore than anyone else would be who has a serious medical condition. I am not saying this to excuse any sort of lapse that might have taken place while under the influence, if that is what happened. I am just trying to suggest folks push the pause button on this public rush to judgment.For an area that seems to present itself as being more openminded , liberal and forward thinking, this whole response seems sadly backward,opportunistic, and meanspirited. Come on folks, where is the greater, compassionate, and kinder spirit within you all???
Someone once said," let he ( or she) who is without fault among you cast the first stone"....... remember?????
Peace, Christmas Leubrie

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Posted in reply to the post by jbox:

I would also like to announce my intention to accept the Governor's appointment.

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Peacetree, your statement here is wrong, in my opinion:

" I do not think anyone who is in the position of needing treatment for this condition is in any position to be making public statements about it, anymore than anyone else would be who has a serious medical condition."

I think that one who has an alcohol problem, or any other "serious medical condition," usually has much more knowledge about it than anyone else (except maybe a doctor). I would be much more likely to believe what a recovering alcoholic has to say about his problem than what any well-educated and well-meaning non-addict/alcoholic has to say.

Sara

I echo what Sara says below. Furthermore, it is suspicious that Mr. Carrillo was taken by his handlers the day after his arrest to some unknown place. It seems as if they already had that escape route and explanation available, since he has an established pattern of mis-conduct. Mr. Carrillo's admitted alcoholism is not a new issue. It has surfaced before in admitted scuffles that he has had. Such an addiction does not go away easily. In fact, his treatment has been extended for an undetermined time. We quickly need a 5th District representative.

We already do know many important facts: He so scared a young woman that she called 911 twice for help, fearing that a man would break into her house. It is hard to imagine the pressure that is now on that woman. Or other women who have had similar things happen to them. This is not Mr. Carrillo's first arrest or encounter with the police. I think we should be more concerned with his victim and the trauma that he has brought into our lives than with this one mis-behaving man.

Whatever plea agreement his expensive lawyer is able to manage, Mr. Carrillo will never be trusted again by many of us, including those who voted for and like him. He has a dark cloud over his head. The appropriate thing to do, in my opinion and in that of the unions that represent 60,000 workers, and other groups and individuals is that Mr. Carrillo make a full and public apology for this clearly inappropriate actions, express genuine remorse, and resign gracefully. If he is rehabilitated, then he could possibly return to public service. The longer he stays, the more ugly and divisive this matter will get.

Mr. Carrillo took an oath when elected, as I took an oath when I joined the armed forces. He has violated his responsibility to the public. He has a public, as well as a personal responsibility, which he is no longer exercising.

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Posted in reply to the post by Sara S:

Peacetree, your statement here is wrong, in my opinion:

" I do not think anyone who is in the position of needing treatment for this condition is in any position to be making public statements about it, anymore than anyone else would be who has a serious medical condition."

I think that one who has an alcohol problem, or any other "serious medical condition," usually has much more knowledge about it than anyone else (except maybe a doctor). I would be much more likely to believe what a recovering alcoholic has to say about his problem than what any well-educated and well-meaning non-addict/alcoholic has to say.

Sara

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there isn't going to be a trial

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Posted in reply to the post by peacetree:

For me the truly disturbing thing is that everyone seems to have convicted Efren Carrillo without any sort of trial....

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What a very small mind you have Shepherd.

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Posted in reply to the post by Shepherd:

I echo what Sara says below. Furthermore, it is suspicious that Mr. Carrillo was taken by his handlers the day after his arrest to some unknown place. ...

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Efren was charged with the misdemeanor of "peeking" today. I have started a new thread called "Efren charged with "misdemeanor peeking" in General Community to discuss this. I am closing this thread.