Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers

I am going to try to post the latest Sonoma County Chart in this thread and perhaps comment on trends etc.

One interesting thing is the age of those who are sick. The majority is the 18-49 group. Even they have a high fairly high hospitalization rate here in the County. Close to 20%.

The two metrics I am watching is New Cases and Active Cases.

Number of tests is also an important metric but that is not charted here.

Obviously we would like to see New Cases stay low and eventually go to zero.

April 1

138 tests reported today with six new positives. Please don't let these numbers give you false confidence. Testing criteria is still quite strict. So only certain groups even with symptoms are getting tested.

And only about 20% or less gets sick enough to show up at a test site. So the number of people who have covid-19 infections is many many times the active case number.

These charts should only be used to try to identify trends and not your risk of community infection. By their nature they are trailing indicators.

The trend I believe I see is it is spreading in Sonoma County but not explosively, which means we may be doing a good job to date.

I think the most important metrics are daily deaths and daily new cases. The deaths measure about how many people got infected about two weeks ago, just multiply by 80. The new cases are a measure of the interaction between testing, ie number of, accuracy and result speed, and how many people got infected 3 to 12 days ago.

Since both numbers are relatively steady in soco it shows that what were doing is working. Since testing is getting better the number of new infections could be dropping. This would be confirmed by daily deaths dropping.

However since the virus is now all over the world and in most places daily death and cases are rising geometrically it's beyond containment and elimination. And our current first world strategies are only sustainable for so long in a minority of the world. Interesting times.

Would you care to share the app/site where you are getting those numbers/graphs? Thanks.

I'll just add- Newsom in his daily briefings seems to be most concerned with the number of hospitalizations - especially the numbers in ICU. Does anyone know of a good source for these numbers outside of the daily briefing?

April 2

146 tests, 4 positive cases

You can see the full Chart here

Hospitalization rate is 19% of positive cases in Sonoma County.

So far Seniors seem to be mostly staying out of the fray in Sonoma County with only 15% of the positive cases.

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Posted in reply to the post by SonomaPatientsCoop:

...I'll just add- Newsom in his daily briefings seems to be most concerned with the number of hospitalizations - especially the numbers in ICU.

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which is appropriate, I think. I think preventing overload of the hospitals is top of mind for him.

April 3

351 Tests run, 5 new positive cases. 21 recovered Some of these numbers come in late in the evening. Our County Health workers are working late into the night. They deserve a great deal of gratitude and respect. Maybe when this is over we should think of someway to show appreciation.

April 4

138 Tests reported tonight in Sonoma County.
2 new positives.
We now have 23 recovered.
2409 total tests to date.

April 6 (the was no reporting on the 5th)

171 Tests since Saturday night
2580 Total tests in Sonoma County
15 New Positives for the 2 day period
30 Recovered

Thanks for your posts, Goat Rock!

There's also an excellent "Coronavirus Dashboard" on the PD site here.

thanks for all this info. what time interval does the number recovered span?

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Posted in reply to the post by Goat Rock Ukulele:

April 6 (the was no reporting on the 5th)

171 Tests since Saturday night
2580 Total tests in Sonoma County
15 New Positives for the 2 day period
30 Recovered

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Not sure if you are days behind, but here is the report on April 7. Report shows April 5/6 had 4 and 4 new for 8 total. and 5 more on April 7. 15 new starting from April 4th - April 7 so 4 new cases average per day. But recovered increased so Active is lower. But the critical number is hospitalizations that has stayed flat at 20 for several days (new cases depend on testing, but hospitalizations are a more firm indication of the seriousness of the outbreak, which is said to be 20%, so consistent with 100 cases total).
-source

Date	Active	New	Deaths	Recovered
4/07/2020	81	5	1	38
4/06/2020	84	4	1	30
4/05/2020	87	4	1	23
4/04/2020	83	3	1	23
4/03/2020	81	9	1	21

Now that they are including the testing numbers and the new cases I will just post these screen shots. Still getting new infections diagnosed but at a low level. Does anyone know how difficult it is to get tested?
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Not that may tests today but a nasty little uptick in the new cases. Nice that 9 more are listed as recovered and we are holding strong at 1 person who lost their life. Hopefully the greater new cases is not a trend. Keep your head down out there.
They have taken the new case metric off the chart.


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April 9

It seems the site where the test numbers are posted is corrupted tonight.
We have 5 new positives so perhaps the 16 of yesterday was an outlier.

I read a German study that suggested only about 6% of those infected are actually being picked up when you factor all the asymptomatic and mild cases. That seems high to me but until we do widespread testing there really is no way to be sure. That would put the case number in Sonoma County over 1000. It really does look like we are bending the curve. A lot of people doing great work by staying home and in doing so saving a lot of people in the state of California.

The press reports about the 16 new cases in one day were misleading and unnecessarily alarmed the public. I looked at the numbers as reported on the Sonoma County "dashboard" that tracks all the cases.

Of the 16 supposedly "new" cases, only 2 were active (people still suffering from the disease); the other 14 were individuals who had already recovered from the illness. This was apparently the result of an increase in testing, which found people who had recovered from the disease on their own, without hospitalization or other medical treatment.

Looking at the numbers more broadly, during the last 7 days the number of active cases has remained flat and the number of recoveries has steadily increased. That is what the bar chart shows.

Bottom line: The sheltering in place and maintaining physical distance from others is working. Medical treatment of COVID-19 cases is working.

A colleague of mine in Los Angeles and his wife had COVID-19. They recovered in under 2 weeks. He said their cases were worse than a common cold but not a severe as the flu. (The flu is much more severe, and more deadly, than COVID-19.) He said most people in the immediate neighborhood also had mild cases.

I love that photo of Albert Einstein!

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Posted in reply to the post by spam1:

https://www.waccobb.net/forums/wacco...0_22-10-53.png

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April 10

3 new cases reported today.
Active cases have been flat for about a week now.
Sadly we lost a second person to the virus here in Sonoma County.

It takes about 2 weeks on average to get sick enough for most to show up at a test site. We have been in lockdown for a little more than 3 weeks. So if we look back about a week on this chart we can see pretty clearly where the physical distancing kicked in.


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Re: "The flu is much more severe, and more deadly, than COVID-19."

Johns Hopkins Medicine says: "Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu." (https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...019-vs-the-flu)

And the Washington Post of 4/11 said, "The coronavirus is killing about 1 in 10 hospitalized middle-aged patients and 4 in 10 older than 85 in the United States, and is particularly lethal to men ... according to previously unpublished data from a company that aggregates real-time patient data from 1,000 hospitals and 180,000 health-care providers."

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Posted in reply to the post by Finell:

...A colleague of mine in Los Angeles and his wife had COVID-19. They recovered in under 2 weeks. He said their cases were worse than a common cold but not a severe as the flu. (The flu is much more severe, and more deadly, than COVID-19.) He said most people in the immediate neighborhood also had mild cases.

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All viruses are insidious in one way or another, hijacking normal body functions. One thing that is unique about COVID-19 is that we know now it binds in the blood stream to hemoglobin and displaces oxygen. That creates a state of hypoxia (low oxygen) in the body somewhat like altitude sickness. So, it's not just that it causes pneumonia. And, yes, the death rate is clearly higher than most forms of the flu.

Jon Jackson, MD

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Posted in reply to the post by luke32:

Re: "The flu is much more severe, and more deadly, than COVID-19."..

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April 11

Very few tests reported. The good news is no new cases detected. Don't read to much into no cases today and keep your guard up, but no new cases today certainly isn't a bad thing.



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April 12

Testing numbers are up from yesterday. Two new cases. So far no exponential increase in new cases. This is going to be a long road but so far Sonoma County is doing a great job of keeping the spread to a minimum.


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This chart of Morgan Stanleys projections is interesting and hopeful. I believe we will be well enough prepared and wise enough (at least on a state level) to keep that second wave to a minimum if it should appear. .


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVZqoL8W...pg&name=medium

April 14

8 new cases tonight. That is a more then we have been getting. Hopefully it's not a trend.


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April 15

Three new cases. It seems testing numbers are going down. I would think they should be going up. I have read there is a shortage of testing materials around the country and testing is off by 30%. That is the wrong direction.


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April 16

The tests are up but so are the Sonoma County cases. 9 new cases today.

We may have good news on the therapeutic front. It appears the Gilead's antiviral Remdesivir may be effective.

I've been following this drug closely. The drawback could be it's hard to make and takes time to make. I'm hopeful that other countries can also produce it. I know BrightGene a biotech in China is also producing it. This could be the first real drug to make covid-19 largely a treatable disease.

https://www.foxnews.com/science/expe...-shows-promise

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April 17

6 new cases reported today.

Stanford University tested people for Covid-19 antibodies at random in Santa Clara County. From their tests they postulated between 55,000 and 80,000 had been exposed to the virus. I don't know what to make of that. Maybe their test is faulty, maybe far far greater numbers get exposed and have no symptoms.


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This table shows a 4% test-positivity rate (163/4010) for Sonoma County. This is quite good as this thing goes in the US, which has a ~20% test-positivity rate. Even worse, NYC has a 55% test-positivity rate, meaning they are missing a vary, very large percentage of the infections. Read the ​Atlantic article below for a deep dive into this subject.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...y-rate/610132/
"The test-positivity rate, then, is a decent (if unusual) proxy for the severity of an outbreak in an area. And it shows clearly that the U.S. still lags far behind other countries in the course of fighting its outbreak. South Korea—which discovered its first coronavirus case on the same day as the U.S.—has tested more than half a million people, or about 1 percent of its population, and discovered about 10,500 cases. The U.S. has now tested 3.2 million people, which is also about 1 percent of its population, but it has found more than 630,000 cases. So while the U.S. has a 20 percent positivity rate, South Korea’s is only about 2 percent—a full order of magnitude smaller."

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Posted in reply to the post by Goat Rock Ukulele:

April 15

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April 18

43 tests with 0 new cases detected.

It's a good point by the previous poster about the low positive rates we are seeing. If you are in a city with many many cases it seems the the virus goes everywhere. I read a story today about air tankers being used in Spain to coat entire cities with disinfectant. I see a lot of video of Asian cities being disinfected. I have not seen that being done anywhere in the US.
I read another story that it can be spread by farts. I guess we will have to light our farts like we used to do in junior high.




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April 19

1 new case reported today.

Still no major outbreak detected here in Sonoma County. We will know more about how wide spread this bug is when they start doing the antibody tests.


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April 20

1 new case reported today.

We are doing well with mitigation. I have been reading the virus is spreading in the homeless population in SF as well as in parts of Japan Town. Our proximity to a large population area like San Francisco is a concern.



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April 21

10 new cases reported tonight.

This thing is going to be with us for a while. Some days I happy as a clam just working in my shop and futzing in the garden. Then there are times I fell like kicking a door in.

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I really appreciate having this info available each day. My one Q to Barry is why do the April 20th stats appear first? I can't help thinking a few folks won;t think to scroll down, not realizing that the more current stats, follow.
My 2 cents...

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Posted in reply to the post by gypsey:

..My one Q to Barry is why do the April 20th stats appear first?...

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The April 20 and 21 posts in this thread were both posted within the time period covered by 1 digest, so they both were included in the same digest, with the earlier one first, as normally presented within a thread.
And thanks again to Goat Rock U for sharing these with us each day. :tiphat:

April 22

2 New cases tonight.

The hospitalization rate is 11 percent. That seems pretty good and would mean we have 11 people in our local hospitals.



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April 23

22 New Cases Tonight.

That is the largest day over day number we have had so far. Too early to tell if this a trend but not a welcome number.


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Here is a chart that shows how many of us Californians were saved by the early shelter in place orders. Keep in mind it now seems likely the earliest cases of the disease where here in the Bay Area. If the London Breed and others had not acted we would have traveled one of those very steep lines.





https://i0.wp.com/www.brookings.edu/...2C9999px&ssl=1

Here is a map from the New York Times showing where the cases are rising fastest. As you can see the Eastern part of the US is a mess. This map also shows how insane it is to open Georgia at this time. If you could get to Alaska without getting in a metal tube with 100 other people it looks like the place to be.

April 24

1 new case reported today.


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Do you have any numbers for Forestville and Sebastopol? Thanks.

Scroll down to the bottom of the page, it gives numbers for regions.

https://socoemergency.org/emergency/novel-coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

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Posted in reply to the post by cw707:

Do you have any numbers for Forestville and Sebastopol? Thanks.

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So far, they're only giving general stats for the entire county, not individual towns. Part of their privacy policy for victims.

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Posted in reply to the post by cw707:

Do you have any numbers for Forestville and Sebastopol? Thanks.

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Here you go. So West County represents 7% of the total cases. I would not derive too much from that because we all travel around the county. Well we used to anyway. People who work in SR may live in West County and visa versa. So we are a little over 200 cases in Sonoma County so about 15 people in West County have been diagnosed. I can't find information about which towns.




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Posted in reply to the post by cw707:

Do you have any numbers for Forestville and Sebastopol? Thanks.

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At the bottom of this page regions are broken down: https://socoemergency.org/emergency/...Uin4#last5days

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Posted in reply to the post by wisewomn:

So far, they're only giving general stats for the entire county, not individual towns. Part of their privacy policy for victims.

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Just 16 in West County - total! With just 2 deaths county wide.

Sure wish we had testing and contact tracing in place.
If we had, we could "re-open!".

April 25

1 New Case in Sonoma County.

That is two days in a row with just one new case reported. When we had 22 in a day a few days ago it was an oh no. We are now back on the right track. There has been reports in the Press Democrat that testing is going to ramp up. That will likely mean many more cases confirmed but we will be in a better place. Nationally things are not good. 34,000 new cases in a 24 hour period.



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The release of social distancing should have a way of telling if people have been/are covidiots or not. Why waste the caution.

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Posted in reply to the post by Barry:

... Sure wish we had testing and contact tracing in place.
If we had, we could "re-open!".

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Increased testing should increase the number of reported cases. When testing does not increase the number of reported cases, the epidemic will have ended.

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Posted in reply to the post by Goat Rock Ukulele:

April 16

The tests are up but so are the Sonoma County cases. 9 new cases today.

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I do not understand your point.

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Posted in reply to the post by Thad:

The release of social distancing should have a way of telling if people have been/are covidiots or not. Why waste the caution.

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For most of us, the key metrics should be the current number of active cases and the net change in the number of active cases. While it is useful to have the daily reports—I look at the Sonoma County "dashboard" every evening—individual days in isolation don't indicate much.

April 23 was Sonoma County's worst day so far: 22 new active cases, 0 recoveries. But look at it in the context of the last 8 days' increase (decrease) in the number of active cases:

April 18	0
April 19	1
April 20	1
April 21	10
April 22	(4)
April 23	22
April 24	1
April 25	(9)

That averages to a net increase of 2.75 active cases per day. I wish the numbers were better, but they could easily have been much worse. Also, most of these new cases are not really "new"; they are, more accurately, newly discovered.

If I can find the time, I would like to calculate the 7-day or 10-day trailing average and chart it on a logarithmic scale.

Ok, say you live on a large enough property, no community rules, different households, one household, too casual about the virus, a health practitioner, various cars call, I feel virus particles shedding off the cars when they drive by, travels to and from the bay area, very reasonable, you'd never think they were a Covidiot.

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Posted in reply to the post by Finell:

I do not understand your point.

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April 26

2 New cases reported today.

I found this article hopeful. It's about a vaccine produced in China that seems to work on monkeys. So we know it will work on many in Washington at any rate. I shouldn't have said that, It was wrong to disparage rhesus macaque.



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THANK YOU for the "chuckle"!!!! :thumbsup:

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Posted in reply to the post by Goat Rock Ukulele:

...I found this article hopeful. It's about a vaccine produced in China that seems to work on monkeys. So we know it will work on many in Washington at any rate. I shouldn't have said that, It was wrong to disparage rhesus macaque.

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April 27

2 New cases reported in Sonoma County today.

We have done well, reopening of construction, landscaping and several other outdoor jobs by the Health Department is said to be imminent. I hope it's the State Beaches too. Being able to walk down the beach from Salmon Creek to Mussel Point or do a section of the Kortum Trail would be great. It will not make sense to open only County Parks. That will only lead to higher concentrations of people at the few County Beaches.


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April 28

Six new cases reported tonight.

County Parks are now open if you walk or ride a bike to them. Dr. Sundari Mase who is in charge of Sonoma County's response to the pandemic is now and will get a lot of criticism for saving too many of us. You can read the posts below the articles in the Press Democrat. There will be no way to prove what would have happened had we taken another course. Intelligent people will be able to extrapolate from what went happened on the East Coast. The models for total US deaths look like they may be close. Dr Mase and her colleagues will always be heros to me.


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Agreed about Dr Mase...she has done a wonderful job and I am thankful. I really hope people can recognize this and think collectively and with gratitude instead of go into an individualistic complaining mode!

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Posted in reply to the post by Goat Rock Ukulele:

... Dr Mase and her colleagues will always be heros to me.

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April 29

4 New cases reported tonight.

Some good news on Remdesivir. It does work. I would assume it works far better if given early in the course of the disease like Tamiflu. If Remdesivir can stop the virus replication and you have another drug to block the cytokine storm (which is what actually kills you) that could be pretty close to a cure. Trials to block the cytokine storm are on going and we should see results some time in may.


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Thank you for your wise words re the leadership shown by our Gov and county including Dr. Mase. For those who are concerned as most of us are, about the financial repercussions for all of us including the local small businesses we rely on and care about, it may help to know that credible economists have said that if we open too soon, have to close again b/c there is a second wave etc,== that would be far worse economically. Thanks everyone!

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Posted in reply to the post by Goat Rock Ukulele:

...Dr. Sundari Mase who is in charge of Sonoma County's response to the pandemic is now and will get a lot of criticism for saving too many of us. ...

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What I recall reading about the Remdesivir trials is that in these very preliminary trials, the results were positive in about 30% of the cases and only a very very small group was used. But every day, some new reasons for hope and certainly this is one.

Any idea what the number of ICU beds in Sonoma Co is?

April 30

13 New cases tonight. Pretty hight number as compared to the last 3 or 4 days. For the first time we do have more recovered than active. This says 29th but I think they forgot to change the date.


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From the PD about a week ago

County emergency management staff recently took a poll of current hospital capacity and found there are 689 inpatient beds, 76 of which would be for intensive-care patients. The county’s six acute-care hospitals recently reported they could add 227 hospital beds, including 64 more beds for the sickest patients needing intensive care, 115 moderate-care beds and 58 for isolated patients.

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Posted in reply to the post by geomancer:

Any idea what the number of ICU beds in Sonoma Co is?

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May 1

4 New Cases

Tests seem to be going up.


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As we look at the daily changes in the total number of cases, active cases, and recoveries—and I confess that I keep the Sonoma County "dashboard" open all day and look at each day's numbers every evening—we should reflect how fortunate we are to be here rather than some other place where the numbers are much worse. No doubt enforced physical separation of individuals has saved many of us from contracting COVID-19. In addition, our county's low population density has reduced the number of cases here.

Why inspire a really conservative local health officer? I don't get it .

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Posted in reply to the post by wildinspired:

Agreed about Dr Mase...she has done a wonderful job and I am thankful. I really hope people can recognize this and think collectively and with gratitude instead of go into an individualistic complaining mode!

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Don't be so afraid. We're all going to get it, and die or not. As you know a vaccine is at least a year away. Why are you afraid to die?

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Posted in reply to the post by Finell:

...we should reflect how fortunate we are to be here rather than some other place where the numbers are much worse. ...

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April 2

4 New Cases this Saturday. Posting late because the site was down last night.

Dramatic uptick in testing. This is good news. More testing and having contact tracing up to speed can only be good. There is an uptrend in Sant Clara, Alameda and San Mateo. Many states are opening up but only one state has met the White House guidelines, New York. The Administration is at the same time urging states to open while having guidelines that say they should not. Seems like a way to duck responsibility if it goes bad.


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Posted in reply to the post by Finell:

As we look at the daily changes in the total number of cases, active cases, and recoveries—and I confess that I keep the Sonoma County "dashboard" open all day and look at each day's numbers every evening—we should reflect how fortunate we are to be here rather than some other place where the numbers are much worse. No doubt enforced physical separation of individuals has saved many of us from contracting COVID-19. In addition, our county's low population density has reduced the number of cases here.

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I've also been tracking our progress in Sonoma County. For personal reasons I've also been tracking the progress in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, which has more or less the same population, as well as the same geographic split between rural, suburban and urban residents.

To date, Sonoma County has approximately 250 total cases to Lancaster County's 2000. We have 2 deaths, they have over 130.

One of the only real difference that I can see is the amazing leadership we have here in Sonoma, which includes Dr. Maze and the outstanding staff at Sonoma County Public Health, our local community clinic leadership, the leaders and staff from the Redwood Community Health Coalition (which is our North Bay community clinic consortium), and our local population which has taken this all very seriously and tried our best to do what was asked of us for the common good.

Together this leadership team has put out a very clear plan with excellent messaging, and our Sonoma County residents have really taken heed. As a result, any without any doubt to those who have been following our progress, dozens of lives have been saved, and our hospitals have not been overwhelmed, which means we have the capacity to take care of all those who are ill from COVID-19, while still being able to provide care to all the other patients who need hospitalization. These folks haven't suddenly disappeared during this crisis, and our ability to be here for them is also quite noteworthy.

These accomplishment are something we should all be very proud of.

Now we just need to keep it up! Our local heathcare leadership is on our side. They are not some outsiders trying to impose something on us. They are our neighbors, our friends. They want us to be healthy, and they understand its not easy. Following their lead, hopefully we won't need to repeat these difficult measures a second time, and we can join together again soon. In the meantime, may we keep up the great work

Because being conservative has save many lives.

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Posted in reply to the post by rossmen:

Why inspire a really conservative local health officer? I don't get it .

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Really appreciate your comparison and conclusion here! I so often hear folks wonder why we are continuing to have such strict shelter in place orders since we are doing so well! Obvious to me this is WHY we are doing so well! Feeling gratitude. :-)

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Posted in reply to the post by donnatova:

I've also been tracking our progress in Sonoma County. For personal reasons I've also been tracking the progress in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, which has more or less the same population, as well as the same geographic split between rural, ...

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May 3

5 New Cases
1 Additional Death

They will be ramping testing to 600 to 800 per day and expanding the parameters to anyone who feels they need to be tested. https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/1...rd-coronavirus
The LA Times has very in-depth charts and graphs. https://www.latimes.com/projects/cal...king-outbreak/




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Are you serious about that, Rossmen? Or is that your way of expressing disgust and frustration with the situation? If it is the latter, I sympathize with you. It has been hard on all of us, one way or another.

If you really are predicting that everyone (in Sonoma County? the US? the world?) will get COVID-19, please explain your reasoning, extrapolating from the current case figures.

This pandemic started overseas. Other countries were hit before the US. Nowhere has there been anything close to infection of the entire population.

The pandemic has been bad enough as it is, without exaggeration. The situation is under better control now than it was when the first cases were reported here. It does not help anyone to instill unreasonable fear, especially in those who are most susceptible to anxiety or depression.

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Posted in reply to the post by rossmen:

Don't be so afraid. We're all going to get it, and die or not. As you know a vaccine is at least a year away. Why are you afraid to die?

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Don't pay any attention to Rossman. This is a good, very helpful thread and we don't need to gum it up with nonsense.

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Posted in reply to the post by Finell:

Are you serious about that, Rossmen?...

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Yes, indeed,Luke. Now would be a good time to put Rossmen on our "Ignore" lists. Go to your profile to do it.

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Posted in reply to the post by luke32:

Don't pay any attention to Rossman. This is a good, very helpful thread and we don't need to gum it up with nonsense.

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May 4

4 New Cases Tonight

It seems odd the way the cases trickle in. Like a smoldering fire you can't quite put out.
I suppose that will change when testing ramps to 600. to 800 per day and the economy is opened up.



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Actually I am serious about both. To live life unafraid to die is a consistent goal of mine. And to accept the epigenetic reality that covid will never be contained, only inconsistently mitigated, is real. So yeah, I'm going to get it, probably before there's a vaccine, if evah, which most likely will be more dangerous and less effective immunity wise than getting it. Don't think I have yet. And yes I might die.

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Posted in reply to the post by Finell:

Are you serious about that, Rossmen? Or is that your way of expressing disgust and frustration with the situation? If it is the latter, I sympathize with you. It has been hard on all of us, one way or another.

If you really are predicting that everyone (in Sonoma County? the US? the world?) will get COVID-19, please explain your reasoning, extrapolating from the current case figures....

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May 5

11 New Cases

They were late on posting but holy cow look at the testing numbers, pretty close to 10X. I expect they are getting all kinds of people who don't need tests trying to get tested. Less than a 1% positive rate seems pretty good.


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Is there any data on the percentage of tested-positive but asymptomatic people who go on to show symptoms vs those that remain asymptomatic?

May 6

14 New cases were reported last night.

Wonder why so few tests after the 1800 the day before.

I expect we will get even better news about the effectiveness of Remdesivir when they read out the data on less critically ill patients who were given the drug. Antivirals seem to work much better if taken early in the course of a disease. The problem is the supply is very limited and the Trump Administration is in charge of who gets it. This could be a horrible problem. Newsom should send State Troopers to Gilead in Foster City and secure a fair supply for California Hospitals.


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May 7

6 new cases last night.

The County has opened up ocean access to fishermen. You are supposed to go out alone or with a member of your direct household. They are opening Westside but not Doran so it will be a circus out there with only one launch. They should have opened Doran for boat launch only as well.



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May 8

8 New cases reported last night.


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. Most counties cases are steady, some are going down a few are rising. Sonoma County shows a slight uptrend.

Thanks so very much Goat Rock Ukelele for sharing these graphs and keeping us informed in this very clear way. I am sending you many appreciations...your sharing is helping me keep myself positioned, in a fluid kind of way, based in what's actually happening, in how I am choosing o engage or not. Thank you, thank you...!!

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Posted in reply to the post by Goat Rock Ukulele:

. Most counties cases are steady, some are going down a few are rising. Sonoma County shows a slight uptrend.

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Since the number of new cases is so dependent on the amount of testing, I'd be interested in the trend of the percentage of positive tests of the new tests.

May 9

9 New Cases last night


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That would be good to know. It's hard to figure from day to day because we don't know when tests taken relate to cases reported. The county may be using the Abbot Labs 15 minute test or they may be sending the tests out which in some cases has taken a week, or they may now be using a Sonoma County lab or a combination.

As of last nights posted numbers the number of positives to tests taken is around 3.25% That is for the entire pandemic to date. In the last week that percentage has gone lower to 1.85%

That does not mean the the virus is declining in the county. It might mean they are testing a lot of first responders, nursing homes, who have no symptoms. I'm always afraid people are going to look at these numbers and think they represent the number of actual cases in the county. There are likely10 or more times as many people in the county who have the virus with mild or no symptoms.

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Posted in reply to the post by Barry:

Since the number of new cases is so dependent on the amount of testing, I'd be interested in the trend of the percentage of positive tests of the new tests.

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Quote:

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Posted in reply to the post by Barry:

Since the number of new cases is so dependent on the amount of testing, I'd be interested in the trend of the percentage of positive tests of the new tests.

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Agreed!

Except the percentage of positive results is going to be grossly skewed by who gets tested. As tests are more available and the requirement for serious symptoms to be teated goes away, the % positives should go way down. It’s not clear to me that that is meaningful.

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Posted in reply to the post by Barry:

Since the number of new cases is so dependent on the amount of testing, I'd be interested in the trend of the percentage of positive tests of the new tests.

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May 10

0 New cases detected today.

The State of California is training up an army of contact tracers. https://www.ocregister.com/2020/05/0...in-california/


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May 11

3 New Cases tonight. Sadly we lost another Sonoma County resident to the virus.



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May 11

21 New Cases last night. Says May 12 but these numbers are from last night.

More testing = more cases detected. Sonoma County has added more metrics to their Covid-19 information page. https://socoemergency.org/emergency/...navirus-cases/
Hispanics are being hit hardest. Only 18% of our cases are from community transmission. That says to me if you are doing the right things your chances of being infected are fairly low.


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May 13

4 New Cases last night.

Seems like the pressure to reopen is becoming too great to resist. Hopefully we don't get in trouble.
https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/1...s-seek-broader

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Yesterday was a good day, after a few earlier not-so-good days. Yes, I know, I am the one who said that the daily fluctuations are meaningless. My rational mind still knows that. But I am also human. I am hoping for more good days and, eventually, a long-term solution. Meanwhile, the fact that recoveries so substantially exceed active case and deaths, and that the ratio of recoveries to active cases is steadily increasing, are positive indicators for the future course of this disease in our county.

May 16

9 New Cases Tonight

I missed posting on the 15th. There were 13 cases that day. For me the days seen to all run together at this point. Latinos are bearing the brunt of this virus in Sonoma County. In the last week infections of Latinos has gone from a little over 48%% to tonight 61% of all cases. Hispanics are 25% of the population in Sonoma County. I have read that Latinos are taking this more seriously than any other ethnic groups but I have also been told by friends that fewer precautions have been observed in the Roseland area. I don't know if the county is able to contact trace and put infected in hotel rooms at this point. They will not be able to bring this under control if they are not able to do that. West County diagnosed cases has been steady at 20 for many days.

Stay Strong, Stay Safe, Stay in the West County


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West county is a temporary haven for old white people. Of course Latinx are getting it worse, still have to work.
Look around the world. The data comes in everyday. Containment, not happening. Mitigation, defined by slowing the spread so severely infected will die under medical care, yeah, around here. Contract tracing is now an excuse for lifting restrictions. Our medical system gave it up in early march. So restrictions are now being lifted, in soco numbers are steady with more testing, but in us and cali daily cases and death are going up, except in ny. Get the picture?

May 17

14 New Cases reported last night. We seem to be seeing a small but rise in new cases. It could be increased testing. West County unchanged at 20 cases.

The experimental vaccine made by Moderna generates immune response. https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/18/...mune-response/


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May 17

4 New Cases last night. Only 10 tests reported.

Mecrury News: No deaths in the SF Bay Area for 2 consecutive days. A first since March

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May 19

20 New cases last night.

Active cases rising in Sonoma County. No new cases in West County



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May 20th

22 reported new cases in Sonoma County.

Many Bay Area Counties case numbers are in decline Unfortunately Sonoma, Marin and Alameda are going in the wrong direction. We are starting from a fairly low number so most of our rise might be explained by increased testing. Still no new cases reported in West County. The SF Chronicle has very good graphs and stats on Bay Area cases https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/

California had it's worst day with 132 dead. As business begin reopening and the weather is great don't let your guard down. The risk of becoming infected will only rise for a while.


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May 22

2 New Cases Reported in Sonoma County Tonight.

They have changed their format so the charts look different. We are seeing a very steady increase in cases.
1 of the 23 reported tonight was a West County resident.
66% of cases are in the Hispanic Community. This percentage has been increasing. Most of those infected have no underlying conditions. 8% have been hospitalized.
See all the County's charts here https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...?views=view_26