Anti-Donald Trump
activism among conservatives — known informally as the
“#NeverTrump” movement — started in
early 2016 as a way to stop the businessman from winning the GOP nomination. It failed.
Even by the slightly broader standard of influencing Republican politics,
#NeverTrump has been largely unsuccessful. Trump won
around 90 percent of self-identified Republican voters
in 2016, similar to
past GOP presidential nominees. About
90 percent of Republicans have approved of Trump throughout his first term, similar to
George W. Bush’s standing in his first four years in office. And with Trump as the face of the party, Republican congressional candidates
won around 90 percent of the GOP vote in the 2018 midterms, just as in
recent midterm elections. There is really only
one anti-Trump figure among the 249 Republicans on Capitol Hill: Sen. Mitt Romney.
“Never Trumpers” tried to draft a high-profile Republican like Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan to
run against Trump for the GOP nomination. That
didn’t pan out either. Facing fairly weak opponents, Trump
easily won the GOP primaries that occurred earlier this year. Polls also suggest most Republicans will be strongly behind Trump this November too — he is getting
about 90 percent of the Republican vote in
head-to-head match-ups with the presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden.
But “Never Trumpers” are increasingly involved in the Democratic Party and have gradually shifted their tactics in that direction — effectively becoming a “Never Trump”
and “Never Bernie Sanders” coalition. And they appear to be having more success shaping their new party than the one that many of them had been associated with for much of their lives. Here’s how that shift has happened.
‘Never Trumpers’ found a home in the media
By pure numbers, the anti-Trump conservative bloc is both fairly small and not that remarkable. The group of Republican voters who disapprove of Trump is similar (but slightly smaller) than
Democrats who disapproved of then-President Barack Obama during his first term. Conservatives who really hate Trump probably no longer identify as Republicans — 11 percent of Republicans switched their party affiliation between December 2015 and March 2017,
according to Pew. But surveys suggest that the share of Democrats switching affiliation in that same period is about the same. It’s hard to be precise about this: Data suggests at most 10 percent of American voters overall are anti-Trump but generally lean Republican.
1 That’s not nothing, but between
40 and 50 percent of Americans are likely to vote for Trump in November.
But while this hard to prove conclusively, anti-Trump conservatives are arguably
way overrepresented in elite media, at least compared to their numbers in the general population. The New York Times, for example, has three conservative-leaning but Trump-skeptical opinion columnists —
David Brooks,
Ross Douthat,
Bret Stephens — and no columnists who regularly align with the president. MSNBC has programs fronted by two anti-Trump hosts once closely aligned with the GOP establishment —
ex-Rep. Joe Scarborough and
Nicolle Wallace, a former communications director for President George W. Bush — and no explicitly pro-Trump hosts. Among the 53 Washington Post opinion writers
highlighted on the paper’s website, seven are people who have identified with conservatives and/or the Republican Party in the past but regularly attack Trump. Just four are conservatives who regularly defend the president.
2 Numerous
anti-Trump conservatives are
also featured prominently on CNN.
3
How did this happen? Well, from the media perspective, the prominence of “Never Trump” conservatives makes perfect sense. The readers and watchers of The Post, The Times and MSNBC in particular are
disproportionately left-leaning.
4 So these audiences probably don’t want too much explicitly pro-Trump commentary. At the same time, news outlets usually like to present themselves as both offering a diverse set of voices and
not too closely aligned with one party or the other. So by featuring, for example, George Conway,
a conservative lawyer turned “Never Trump” leader5 who
sharply criticizes the president
in his cable news appearances and
columns in The Washington Post, the press can
essentially suggest, “It’s not just the ‘liberal media,’ even Republicans were angry when Trump did X.”
6
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