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April 20
1 new case reported today.
We are doing well with mitigation. I have been reading the virus is spreading in the homeless population in SF as well as in parts of Japan Town. Our proximity to a large population area like San Francisco is a concern.
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April 21
10 new cases reported tonight.
This thing is going to be with us for a while. Some days I happy as a clam just working in my shop and futzing in the garden. Then there are times I fell like kicking a door in.
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I really appreciate having this info available each day. My one Q to Barry is why do the April 20th stats appear first? I can't help thinking a few folks won;t think to scroll down, not realizing that the more current stats, follow.
My 2 cents...
The April 20 and 21 posts in this thread were both posted within the time period covered by 1 digest, so they both were included in the same digest, with the earlier one first, as normally presented within a thread.Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by gypsey:
And thanks again to Goat Rock U for sharing these with us each day. :tiphat:
April 22
2 New cases tonight.
The hospitalization rate is 11 percent. That seems pretty good and would mean we have 11 people in our local hospitals.
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April 23
22 New Cases Tonight.
That is the largest day over day number we have had so far. Too early to tell if this a trend but not a welcome number.
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Here is a chart that shows how many of us Californians were saved by the early shelter in place orders. Keep in mind it now seems likely the earliest cases of the disease where here in the Bay Area. If the London Breed and others had not acted we would have traveled one of those very steep lines.
https://i0.wp.com/www.brookings.edu/...2C9999px&ssl=1
Here is a map from the New York Times showing where the cases are rising fastest. As you can see the Eastern part of the US is a mess. This map also shows how insane it is to open Georgia at this time. If you could get to Alaska without getting in a metal tube with 100 other people it looks like the place to be.
April 24
1 new case reported today.
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Do you have any numbers for Forestville and Sebastopol? Thanks.
Scroll down to the bottom of the page, it gives numbers for regions.
https://socoemergency.org/emergency/novel-coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
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Posted in reply to the post by cw707:
So far, they're only giving general stats for the entire county, not individual towns. Part of their privacy policy for victims.
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Posted in reply to the post by cw707:
Here you go. So West County represents 7% of the total cases. I would not derive too much from that because we all travel around the county. Well we used to anyway. People who work in SR may live in West County and visa versa. So we are a little over 200 cases in Sonoma County so about 15 people in West County have been diagnosed. I can't find information about which towns.
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Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by cw707:
At the bottom of this page regions are broken down: https://socoemergency.org/emergency/...Uin4#last5days
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Posted in reply to the post by wisewomn:
Just 16 in West County - total! With just 2 deaths county wide.
Sure wish we had testing and contact tracing in place.
If we had, we could "re-open!".
April 25
1 New Case in Sonoma County.
That is two days in a row with just one new case reported. When we had 22 in a day a few days ago it was an oh no. We are now back on the right track. There has been reports in the Press Democrat that testing is going to ramp up. That will likely mean many more cases confirmed but we will be in a better place. Nationally things are not good. 34,000 new cases in a 24 hour period.
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The release of social distancing should have a way of telling if people have been/are covidiots or not. Why waste the caution.
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Posted in reply to the post by Barry:
Increased testing should increase the number of reported cases. When testing does not increase the number of reported cases, the epidemic will have ended.
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Posted in reply to the post by Goat Rock Ukulele:
I do not understand your point.
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Posted in reply to the post by Thad:
For most of us, the key metrics should be the current number of active cases and the net change in the number of active cases. While it is useful to have the daily reports—I look at the Sonoma County "dashboard" every evening—individual days in isolation don't indicate much.
April 23 was Sonoma County's worst day so far: 22 new active cases, 0 recoveries. But look at it in the context of the last 8 days' increase (decrease) in the number of active cases:
April 18 0 April 19 1 April 20 1 April 21 10 April 22 (4) April 23 22 April 24 1 April 25 (9)
That averages to a net increase of 2.75 active cases per day. I wish the numbers were better, but they could easily have been much worse. Also, most of these new cases are not really "new"; they are, more accurately, newly discovered.
If I can find the time, I would like to calculate the 7-day or 10-day trailing average and chart it on a logarithmic scale.
Ok, say you live on a large enough property, no community rules, different households, one household, too casual about the virus, a health practitioner, various cars call, I feel virus particles shedding off the cars when they drive by, travels to and from the bay area, very reasonable, you'd never think they were a Covidiot.
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Posted in reply to the post by Finell:
April 26
2 New cases reported today.
I found this article hopeful. It's about a vaccine produced in China that seems to work on monkeys. So we know it will work on many in Washington at any rate. I shouldn't have said that, It was wrong to disparage rhesus macaque.
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THANK YOU for the "chuckle"!!!! :thumbsup:
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Posted in reply to the post by Goat Rock Ukulele:
April 27
2 New cases reported in Sonoma County today.
We have done well, reopening of construction, landscaping and several other outdoor jobs by the Health Department is said to be imminent. I hope it's the State Beaches too. Being able to walk down the beach from Salmon Creek to Mussel Point or do a section of the Kortum Trail would be great. It will not make sense to open only County Parks. That will only lead to higher concentrations of people at the few County Beaches.
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April 28
Six new cases reported tonight.
County Parks are now open if you walk or ride a bike to them. Dr. Sundari Mase who is in charge of Sonoma County's response to the pandemic is now and will get a lot of criticism for saving too many of us. You can read the posts below the articles in the Press Democrat. There will be no way to prove what would have happened had we taken another course. Intelligent people will be able to extrapolate from what went happened on the East Coast. The models for total US deaths look like they may be close. Dr Mase and her colleagues will always be heros to me.
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Agreed about Dr Mase...she has done a wonderful job and I am thankful. I really hope people can recognize this and think collectively and with gratitude instead of go into an individualistic complaining mode!
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Posted in reply to the post by Goat Rock Ukulele:
April 29
4 New cases reported tonight.
Some good news on Remdesivir. It does work. I would assume it works far better if given early in the course of the disease like Tamiflu. If Remdesivir can stop the virus replication and you have another drug to block the cytokine storm (which is what actually kills you) that could be pretty close to a cure. Trials to block the cytokine storm are on going and we should see results some time in may.
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Thank you for your wise words re the leadership shown by our Gov and county including Dr. Mase. For those who are concerned as most of us are, about the financial repercussions for all of us including the local small businesses we rely on and care about, it may help to know that credible economists have said that if we open too soon, have to close again b/c there is a second wave etc,== that would be far worse economically. Thanks everyone!
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Posted in reply to the post by Goat Rock Ukulele:
What I recall reading about the Remdesivir trials is that in these very preliminary trials, the results were positive in about 30% of the cases and only a very very small group was used. But every day, some new reasons for hope and certainly this is one.
Any idea what the number of ICU beds in Sonoma Co is?