Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
Everyone is focusing on the number of cases, when one should be focusing on the number of deaths!
What many people don't know is that the test that is being used to diagnose the virus is not made to diagnose the virus. There has never been a post postulate of the virus, that is to say that the virus has never been isolated. Which accounts for the amount of cases without deaths. There are a great number of doctors coming out against the idea that this is an epidemic. As a matter of fact it seems to me to be falling on party lines to determine if it's real or not. I am A-political! Not a left or right winger. I am 68 years of age, and the last time I voted was for Carter. I was a bit younger then. When the politicians stop wasting the people's money on wars all over the world then maybe there will be someone for me to vote for, but I will never vote for war mongers.
P.S. I'm not sure how I got here, that is to say, I have no idea who invited me. I only hope that my ideas and or knowledge is not taken to be offensive, it is not meant to be.
The Eyes when you rearrange the letters They seE!
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Posted in reply to the post by Goat Rock Ukulele:
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Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
Let me understand this, this is a site to discuss idea, but when counter to a claim is posted the best thing to do is to sensor those ideas? If that is the case, and that is how it will be settled, I am most surely in the wrong place!
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Posted in reply to the post by Finell:
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Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
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Posted in reply to the post by Adinkrahene:
Everyone is focusing on the number of cases, when one should be focusing on the number of deaths!
Cases is an important data point to track the level of infection in a community. You want to know how prevalent it is and if it is increasing or not. But a much better measure of that is the positivity rate, which is independent of the level of testing. But that's a more subtle concept that is not as easy to grasp as the case count. Unfortunate.
By the same measure, while the deaths is surely important, it has 2 problems. 1) It ignores the very real problem of serious illness short of death, and 2) it's a trailing indicator. Once people start dying in droves it's too late to doing about that (on a lot of levels ;).
Whereas the positivity rate is the best diagnostic of the infection spread, the number of hospitalizations (or better yet % of capacity) is the best measure of the seriousness of the problem. I would argue the point of major problems is when the hospitals are overwhelmed and people can't get the appropriate level of care, whether or not they actually die, fully recover, or sustain permanent damage. You can't spin that!
Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
Oh, Yes you can spend that!.
- As I have said there is no working test for the virus. If you know of one please let me know. You must first know what you're working with, and how it works. If you don't know that, it is easier to spend than chewing gum!
- Interestingly the inventor of the process has stated that it is not for diagnostic purposes, so what exactly is being diagnose?
- And why did the CDC stop counting flu cases?
How do you know that this is not being added to the existing flu cases? Understand that I am not saying that there is no such thing as Co-vide 19.
What I am saying is that it's not as serious as we are made to think, there is an agenda at work. I don't want to go to deep. Because most people get lost when another person says conspiracy. However the world runs on conspiracy. When the republicans want to pass a bill they must first conspire (talk it over) that's in essence what the word means, we are conspiring now.
Now I am a gold bug! That means I collect gold and silver, the only real money that is easy to use. But that's another subject. But, if you have been paying attention to the economy you would have know that something was horribly wrong. I'll leave it at that, and that may be to far. All I will say is there is a reason that the politicians shut down the economic. Things didn't get any better after 2008. In this case the saying that "The evils of tyranny are seldom seen, except by those who opposed them" is valid. Forgive me, I can't remember who said that. I understand that we should keep our post short and to the point so I'll stop here before I go off on a tangent.
Thank you for your time.
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Posted in reply to the post by Barry:
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Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
Not sure how the positivity rate would mean much given that many people test several times. IMHO, the # of deaths has a direct correlation to how bad the pandemic actually is, even if it's hard to prove if every case was 100% COVID caused. It's a measure of how serious the virus is impacting a given community/state/country in a life-or-death manner.
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Posted in reply to the post by Barry:
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Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
Good questions, Barry. There are widely used home treatments for under $100. Anyone can have these on hand to avoid handing our body over to the hospital system. What people need to comprehend is that the EARLIEST intervention is what works.
Many use preventative measures such as flushing the nasal passages with a neti pot once or twice a day, especially with all this mandated mask wearing. I read in the literature that a virus or bacteria needs to incubate at least 24 hours; flush it out and it has less a chance of multiplying; I suppose there is also literature to oppose that; I cannot find where I read the 24 hour claim now, but it was one of the articles from the Journal of Virology. Since the attention span of the American public has exponentially decreased since 2015, I will post the home treatment another time.
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Posted in reply to the post by Barry:
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Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
Death rates rise dramatically when hospitals become over burdened. There are plenty of machines but when intensivists get in short supply death rates can double and greater. You can't just plug any MD into intensive care. That is why it is so critical not to let the cases get out of control.
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Posted in reply to the post by musik900:
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Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
Fatalities are the final stat for covid and these numbers also have problems. Testing drives case and positivity numbers and is highly variable. Hospitilazation is meaningless without a deep dive into socioeconomic political variables. So we are left with death. Sure it's trailing, but only by a few weeks. All the other stats can only begin to be understood by reference to death.
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Posted in reply to the post by Barry:
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Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
My post, to which you responded, did not advocate censoring anyone or anything. I simply pointed out that the discussion entitled "Sonoma County Covid-19 The Numbers" should be confined to that subject. The rest of WaccoBB has been open to all viewpoints and debate about COVID-19, science, conspiracy theories, etc.
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Posted in reply to the post by Adinkrahene:
the best thing to do is to sensor those ideas? ·
Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
I'm very please that you found something (an error in my post) that make you feel good about. Is there anything else? Because I didn't even know you were part of the conversation.
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Posted in reply to the post by Finell:
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Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
The mortality rate is important, of course. However, it is not the only relevant metric. Only a small percentage of those infected by SARS-CoV-2 die. Nevertheless, the number of cases that require intensive care is straining the hospital system. As of yesterday, all Sonoma County had only 3 ICU beds available for its population of 494,000, not counting visitors. One severe automobile accident would take at least 2 of those. And if an airplane crashes? A wildfire? A botched surgery?
From a public health viewpoint, the most relevant metric is the number of active cases. Each individual with the virus can communicate it to many others before the individual shows any sign of illness. The number of new cases daily shows that individuals are not being careful enough: not careful enough to avoid catching it and not careful enough to avoid transmitting it to others.
Furthermore, one who recovers from COVID-19 can wind up with significant, lasting organ damage.
Even the President of the United States—probably the most heavily protected person in the world—caught it.
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Posted in reply to the post by musik900:
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Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
The incubation period is the time between exposure to an infection and the first symptoms.
A swarm of SARS-CoV-2 viruses fly in with your breath and settle in your lungs, where they do their damage. They begin reproducing quickly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is extremely communicable. That, in combination a relatively long incubation period, is the reason that the world has this pandemic.
The following article, published in a medical journal, explains the aerosol method of breath-to-breath transmission of viruses: https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/JAMP.2020.1616.
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Posted in reply to the post by pamelaL:
·a virus or bacteria needs to incubate at least 24 hours
Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
Inevitably, I'm going to be thought of as a conspiracy theories. And I would have to agree with that assessment, however, I like to think of myself as a conspiracy realist. "Sonoma County had only 3 ICU beds" I have heard many such statements, however, not having any documentation of how many ICU beds are at any time available, that metric has no meaning. How could I compare the number of beds now, if I never knew what the number is on a daily basics? I've worked in hospitals for a good part of my life, and I know that addition ICU units can be made at any time. I am not saying at no expense, but, if warranted they can be had.
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"From a public health viewpoint, the most relevant metric is the number of active cases"
I have stated before that the PCR test was never intended to be used as a diagnostic aid. So, what exactly is being tested? ( This is a real question, I would like a answer on!) And how does that equate to one being positive for corona virus. I think sometimes we get so fired up about helping, that we don't look deep enough into what is being said. Let's remember that this is a corona virus. What is a corona virus? It is a virus in the cold or flu family of viruses. With that in mind, we should understand that we all have viruses at any time and one can have a corona virus and never know it. Now with that understanding let's also consider that the complete nucleic acid combination (DNA) for corona virus 19 has not been determined. The most that can be tested for are a number of nucleic acids thought to be part of the structure that makes up the virus. So when you say that the people are not being careful enough, I would say, that one could not be careful enough to not be tested positive with a PCR test. As far as
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"significant, lasting organ damage."
I can tell you that the brain damage that many will get from a constance state of hypoxia will be very bad, and even worse for the children, who need more oxygen than adults.
You most surly don't want to start me on the President of the United States! How old is he? No matter, he sure got over it fast and does not look worse for it. Also, being a (conspiracy theories) that would tie into our money, the economy, great reset, and the strange elections we been having, and not just this year. But, that is a tangent we will not go off on in this forum.
https://geneticmemory.org/images/videos/Mask.mp4
It kinda hard to walk up to people in the street and advice them of this, but you should at lease tell your friends and family!
Peace all, and stay physically and mentally healthy.
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Posted in reply to the post by Finell:
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Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
That's outrageous! I refuse to even reply to that, without more documentation on the relationship via DNA evidence.
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Posted in reply to the post by Finell:
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Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
Sonoma County lists a total of 82 ICU Beds with 79 occupied. They list a surge capacity at the hospitals of 264 and an alternative care site of 474. The problem when hospitals get overrun is not beds and ventilators its have enough intensivists.
Re: Should we only focus on the number of Deaths?
Long COVID is a well established fact. A significant percentage of COVID-19 patients have not not fully recovered after many months, many with severe crippling effects.
Some Nervous Nellies here on WACCO are all about the trivial percentage (< 0.1%) of people who have had allergic reactions to the vaccines. The virus is here to stay for the foreseeable future. If you try to lead a "normal" lifestyle without being vaccinated, eventually, YOU WILL GET COVID-19. Once you get it, there is roughly a 10% chance you will suffer long-term debilitating effects. Do the fucking math.
He Was Hospitalized for Covid-19. Then Hospitalized Again. And Again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/30/h...e=articleShare
The routine things in Chris Long’s life used to include biking 30 miles three times a week and taking courses toward a Ph.D. in eight-week sessions.
But since getting sick with the coronavirus in March, Mr. Long, 54, has fallen into a distressing new cycle — one that so far has landed him in the hospital seven times.
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A study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of 106,543 coronavirus patients initially hospitalized between March and July found that one in 11 was readmitted within two months of being discharged, with 1.6 percent of patients readmitted more than once.
In another study of 1,775 coronavirus patients discharged from 132 V.A. hospitals in the pandemic’s early months, nearly a fifth were rehospitalized within 60 days. More than 22 percent of them needed intensive care, and 7 percent required ventilators.
And in a report on 1,250 patients discharged from 38 Michigan hospitals from mid-March to July, 15 percent were rehospitalized within 60 days.
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