CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Coronavirus Death Rate
Horowitz: The CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Coronavirus Death Rate. Where is the Media?
Wednesday, July 8th 2020 at 1:15 pm
Written By:
Daniel Horowitz
Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.
The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% -- almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.
Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.
Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2% - exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.
More importantly, as I mentioned before, the overall death rate is meaningless because the numbers are so lopsided. Given that at least half of the deaths were in nursing homes, a back-of-the-envelope estimate would show that the infection fatality rate for non-nursing home residents would only be 0.1% or 1 in 1,000. And that includes people of all ages and all health statuses outside of nursing homes. Since nearly all of the deaths are those with comorbidities.
The CDC estimates the death rate from COVID-19 for those under 50 is 1 in 5,000 for those with symptoms, which would be 1 in 6,725 overall, but again, almost all those who die have specific comorbidities or underlying conditions. Those without them are more likely to die in a car accident. And schoolchildren, whose lives, mental health, and education we are destroying, are more likely to get struck by lightning.
To put this in perspective, one Twitter commentator juxtaposed the age-separated infection fatality rates in Spain to the average yearly probability of dying of anything for the same age groups, based on data from the Social Security Administration. He used Spain because we don't have a detailed infection fatality rate estimate for each age group from any survey in the U.S. However, we know that Spain fared worse than almost every other country. This data is actually working with a top-line IFR of 1%, roughly four times what the CDC estimates for the U.S., so if anything, the corresponding numbers for the U.S. will be lower.
As you can see, even in Spain, the death rates from COVID-19 for younger people are very low and are well below the annual death rate for any age group in a given year. For children, despite their young age, they are 10-30 times more likely to die from other causes in any given year.
While obviously yearly death rates factor in myriad of causes of death and COVID-19 is just one virus, it still provides much-needed perspective to a public policy response that is completely divorced from the risk for all but the oldest and sickest people in the country.
Also, keep in mind, these numbers represent your chance of dying once you have already contracted the virus, aka the infection fatality rate. Once you couple the chance of contracting the virus in the first place together with the chance of dying from it, many younger people have a higher chance of dying from a lightning strike.
Four infectious disease doctors in Canada estimate that the individual rate of death from COVID-19 for people under 65 years of age is six per million people, or 0.0006 per cent - 1 in 166,666, which is "roughly equivalent to the risk of dying from a motor vehicle accident during the same time period." These numbers are for Canada, which did have fewer deaths per capita than the U.S.; however, if you take New York City and its surrounding counties out of the equation, the two countries are pretty much the same. Also, remember, so much of the death is associated with the suicidal political decisions of certain states and countries to place COVID-19 patients in nursing homes. An astounding 62 percent of all COVID-19 deaths were in the six states confirmed to have done this, even though they only compose 18 percent of the national population.
We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?
Daniel Horowitz is a senior editor of Conservative Review. Follow him on Twitter @RMConservative.
Re: CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Coronavirus Death Rate
This article presents a very biased view of the data presented. It claims that public policy "destroyed our entire country" and "suspended democracy", neither of which is even close to the truth. Furthermore, it claims that the increased risk of death has been extremely low, yet the increase even for people as young as 30-39 is over 12 per cent, over 18 per cent for those 50-59, and over 35 per cent for those 70-79. Finally, it ignores the long-term health effects on many who survive as well as the effects on those with serious non-covid ailments who cannot get adequate treatment due to covid overloading the health care systems.
Wednesday, July 8th 2020 at 1:15 pm
Written By:
Daniel Horowitz
Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.
The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% -- almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.
Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.
Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2% - exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.
More importantly, as I mentioned before, the overall death rate is meaningless because the numbers are so lopsided. Given that at least half of the deaths were in nursing homes, a back-of-the-envelope estimate would show that the infection fatality rate for non-nursing home residents would only be 0.1% or 1 in 1,000. And that includes people of all ages and all health statuses outside of nursing homes. Since nearly all of the deaths are those with comorbidities.
The CDC estimates the death rate from COVID-19 for those under 50 is 1 in 5,000 for those with symptoms, which would be 1 in 6,725 overall, but again, almost all those who die have specific comorbidities or underlying conditions. Those without them are more likely to die in a car accident. And schoolchildren, whose lives, mental health, and education we are destroying, are more likely to get struck by lightning.
To put this in perspective, one Twitter commentator juxtaposed the age-separated infection fatality rates in Spain to the average yearly probability of dying of anything for the same age groups, based on data from the Social Security Administration. He used Spain because we don't have a detailed infection fatality rate estimate for each age group from any survey in the U.S. However, we know that Spain fared worse than almost every other country. This data is actually working with a top-line IFR of 1%, roughly four times what the CDC estimates for the U.S., so if anything, the corresponding numbers for the U.S. will be lower.
As you can see, even in Spain, the death rates from COVID-19 for younger people are very low and are well below the annual death rate for any age group in a given year. For children, despite their young age, they are 10-30 times more likely to die from other causes in any given year.
While obviously yearly death rates factor in myriad of causes of death and COVID-19 is just one virus, it still provides much-needed perspective to a public policy response that is completely divorced from the risk for all but the oldest and sickest people in the country.
Also, keep in mind, these numbers represent your chance of dying once you have already contracted the virus, aka the infection fatality rate. Once you couple the chance of contracting the virus in the first place together with the chance of dying from it, many younger people have a higher chance of dying from a lightning strike.
Four infectious disease doctors in Canada estimate that the individual rate of death from COVID-19 for people under 65 years of age is six per million people, or 0.0006 per cent - 1 in 166,666, which is "roughly equivalent to the risk of dying from a motor vehicle accident during the same time period." These numbers are for Canada, which did have fewer deaths per capita than the U.S.; however, if you take New York City and its surrounding counties out of the equation, the two countries are pretty much the same. Also, remember, so much of the death is associated with the suicidal political decisions of certain states and countries to place COVID-19 patients in nursing homes. An astounding 62 percent of all COVID-19 deaths were in the six states confirmed to have done this, even though they only compose 18 percent of the national population.
We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?
Daniel Horowitz is a senior editor of Conservative Review. Follow him on Twitter @RMConservative.
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Re: CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Coronavirus Death Rate
So unchecked figuring 75% of the 350000000 people in the US get it at a death rate of .26 percent thats 910,000 dead. And how many with life long damage of brain, lungs, kidneys, vascular system. likely three times the number of dead. Nothing good in those numbers.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23X1BZ
Re: CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Coronavirus Death Rate
This would be a good news, if it is so. Here in India, the death rate is around 2-3% and the recovery rate is pretty good which is more than 72%
Re: CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Coronavirus Death Rate
I have three friends, all in their 70's, who have "recovered" from a COVID-19 infection. Months later, all three continue to suffer from fatigue, two from "brain fog." If the virus conies unchecked, we are in danger of becoming a nation of the chronically ill.
Then there is this:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention acknowledged Friday that a significant number of COVID-19 patients do not recover quickly, and instead experience ongoing symptoms, such as fatigue and cough.As many as a third of patients who were never sick enough to be hospitalized are not back to their usual health up to three weeks after their diagnosis, the report found.
Full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak
"COVID-19 can result in prolonged illness even among persons with milder outpatient illness, including young adults," the report's authors wrote.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6930e1_w
Summary
What is already known about this topic?
Relatively little is known about the clinical course of COVID-19 and return to baseline health for persons with milder, outpatient illness.
What is added by this report?
In a multistate telephone survey of symptomatic adults who had a positive outpatient test result for SARS-CoV-2 infection, 35% had not returned to their usual state of health when interviewed 2–3 weeks after testing. Among persons aged 18–34 years with no chronic medical conditions, one in five had not returned to their usual state of health.
What are the implications for public health practice?
COVID-19 can result in prolonged illness, even among young adults without underlying chronic medical conditions. Effective public health messaging targeting these groups is warranted.
Re: CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Coronavirus Death Rate
As a rule, I'm not a big Meaghan McArdle fan, but here we go:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...3sOlZeSEQmARF8
But with more data, something else has become clear: We’re focusing too much on fatality rates and not enough on the people who don’t die but don’t entirely recover, either.
Now, data is coming in behind the anecdotes, and while it’s preliminary, it’s also “concerning,” says Clyde Yancy, chief of cardiology at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine. A recent study from Germany followed up with 100 recovered patients, two-thirds of whom were never sick enough to be hospitalized. Seventy-eight showed signs of cardiac involvement, and MRIs indicated that 60 of them had ongoing cardiac inflammation, even though it had been at least two months since their diagnosis.
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by geomancer:
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Re: CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Coronavirus Death Rate
Chronic heart disease anyone?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/o...t-disease.html
Covid-19 Is Creating a Wave of Heart Disease
Emerging data show that some of the coronavirus’s most potent damage is inflicted on the heart
SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, was initially thought to primarily impact the lungs — SARS stands for “severe acute respiratory syndrome.” Now we know there is barely a part of the body this infection spares. And emerging data show that some of the virus’s most potent damage is inflicted on the heart
.
Eduardo Rodriguez was poised to start as the No. 1 pitcher for the Boston Red Sox this season. But in July the 27-year-old tested positive for Covid-19. Feeling “100 years old,” he told reporters: “I’ve never been that sick in my life, and I don’t want to get that sick again.” His symptoms abated, but a few weeks later he felt so tired after throwing about 20 pitches during practice that his team told him to stop and rest
.
Further investigation revealed that he had a condition many are still struggling to understand: Covid-19-associated myocarditis. Mr. Rodriguez won’t be playing baseball this season.
It goes on
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Posted in reply to the post by geomancer:
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Re: CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Coronavirus Death Rate
The persistent morbidity after one is "cured" of COVID-19 is a serious problem.
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PSU football doctor: 30-35 percent of COVID-19-positive Big Ten athletes had myocarditis
New data helps illustrate what Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren might have meant when he described “too much medical uncertainty and too many unknown health risks” as reasons for postponing the Big Ten’s 2020-21 fall sports season.
During a State College Area school board of directors meeting on Monday night, Wayne Sebastianelli — Penn State’s director of athletic medicine — made some alarming comments about the link between COVID-19 and myocarditis, particularly in Big Ten athletes. Sebastianelli said that cardiac MRI scans revealed that approximately a third of Big Ten athletes who tested positive for COVID-19 appeared to have myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle that can be fatal if left unchecked.
“When we looked at our COVID-positive athletes, whether they were symptomatic or not, 30 to roughly 35 percent of their heart muscles (were) inflamed,” Sebastianelli said. “And we really just don’t know what to do with it right now. It’s still very early in the infection. Some of that has led to the Pac-12 and the Big Ten’s decision to sort of put a hiatus on what’s happening.”
continues -
Read more here: https://www.centredaily.com/sports/c...#storylink=cpy
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Posted in reply to the post by geomancer:
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Re: CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Coronavirus Death Rate
More on post COVID morbidity. If we ever get to the 60% infection rate needed for *herd immunity* we will be a nation of invalids.
Also, see the #LongHaulers thread on Twitter for what many people experience after *surviving* COVID-19
https://www.WaccoBB.net/forums/wacco...5_12-45-27.png
It’s time to focus on potential long-term organ damage from covid-19
Not by a long shot. Even as cases decline, it is possible we could soon be grappling with the burden of prolonged or permanent organ damage among the millions of people who have survived covid-19. There’s still a lot we don’t know about the long-term effects of this disease, but they could cripple not just these “survivors" but also our health-care system and our economy, too.
The latest research suggests that this novel coronavirus does widespread damage to blood vessels far beyond the lungs — and is thus far more dangerous than previously thought.
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If covid-19′s vascular effects are widespread, the more than 20 million patientswho have “recovered” could be living with serious damage to their blood vessels. That could unleash a global surge in vascular diseases, from stroke and atherosclerosis to myocarditis and heart attack.
Consider a recent study published in JAMA Cardiology, which looked at 100 patients who had recently recovered from covid-19. The researchers found some form of heart abnormality in 78 of these cases and detected an inflammation of the heart muscle in 60, despite the lack of a relevant preexisting condition.
Re: CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Coronavirus Death Rate
First... sorry, but no... despite the claims of a right wing lawyer media hack (David Horowitz) the CDC did *not* confirm a “remarkably low” Covid death rate.
They have instead routinely published “estimates”... some much lower (just over .1% to nearly twice the quoted .26% number. )
For comparison, the death rate from flu in the US is well under .1% - even in a bad year. Looking at the average weekly covid deaths in the US vs the last decade or so of flu data in the US- the “peak week” of flu deaths- covid deaths are greater by a factor of between 10.5 and 44.
As to the WHO’s 3-5% number, one must realize they are talking worldwide. They are talking about countries that are far more densley populated then the US. They are talking about countries with malnutrition. With poor or non-existent medical care. Countries without the infrastructure to even properly record all the Covid deaths. And countries with weak governments that have political reasons to hide or downplay deaths (this should sound familiar to any American paying attention).
Worth noting here too that the death rate in a number of advanced European nations has been much higher than in the US- arguably because of both an older population and higher density (and arguably- more smokers).
As to the economic impact... I know Sweeden is the current darling of the right. And despite the brutality of letting so many people die (and just giving morphine...not even trying to save lives) Sweden saw a 9% economic drop compared to a 12% avg in the EU bloc. 3% for tens of thousands of lives...
Here- we saw economics get put first in many areas- which is just prolonging the economic impact and deaths.
The countries (from Asia to New Zealand) that took this seriously and locked down have largely rebounded, with few new cases and rebounding economies.
Re: CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Coronavirus Death Rate
One of the primary reasons the death rate is low in the US is we have managed for the most part to stay within capacity of our ICUs and Intensivists. When they get overrun the death toll will skyrocket. This is something the let it rippers fail to put in their equations.
Re: CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Coronavirus Death Rate
Iceland and other smallish island nations (Taiwan, New Zealand, Fiji and South Korea (with its hardened border to the north) have been the very effective in controlling the virus.
Extensive testing shows that 43% of the cases were asymptomatic and that the death rate is 0.3%. This is in a relatively young population with an excellent health care system. Older populations with overburdened hospitals will show much higher death rates.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03284-3
How Iceland hammered COVID with science
The tiny island nation brought huge scientific heft to its attempts to contain and study the coronavirus. Here’s what it learnt
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Over the ensuing nine months, deCODE and Iceland’s Directorate of Health, the government agency that oversees health-care services, worked hand-in-hand, sharing ideas, data, laboratory space and staff. The high-powered partnership, coupled with Iceland’s diminutive size, has put the country in the enviable position of knowing practically every move the virus has made. The teams have tracked the health of every person who has tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, sequenced the genetic material of each viral isolate and screened more than half of the island’s 368,000 residents for infection.
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Of 9,199 people recruited for population screening between 13 March and 4 April, 13.3% tested positive for coronavirus. Of that infected group, 43% reported no symptoms at the time of testing2. “This study was the first to provide high-quality evidence that COVID-19 infections are frequently asymptomatic,”
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In addition to tracking asymptomatic infections, the researchers in Iceland concluded that children under 10 were about half as likely to test positive as people aged 10 and older — a finding confirmed in Crisanti’s study of Vo’, as well as studies in the United Kingdom5 and United States6.
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This summer at the university hospital, Palsson’s team used the clinical data to investigate8 the full spectrum of disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. The most common symptoms among the 1,797 people who tested positive between 31 January and 30 April were muscle aches, headache and a non-productive cough — not fever, a symptom listed in both the US Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization case definitions for COVID-19. When used to guide testing, those definitions are likely to miss some symptomatic people, says Palsson.
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The most recent study from Iceland focused on a major COVID-19 question: how long does immunity to SARS-CoV-2 last? deCODE’s team found that anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies remained high in the blood of 91% of infected people for 4 months after diagnosis9, running counter to earlier results suggesting that antibodies decline quickly after infection10,11. It is possible that the conflicting results represent two waves of antibodies. In an editorial accompanying the paper12, Galit Alter at Harvard Medical School in Boston, Massachusetts, and Robert Seder at the US National Institutes of Health’s Vaccine Research Center in Bethesda, Maryland, suggest that a first wave is generated by short-lived plasma cells in response to acute infection, then a second wave, produced by longer-lived cells, bestows lasting immunity.
And finally, Stefánsson was able to pin down the elusive statistic that first intrigued him — the infection fatality ratio (IFR), or the proportion of infected people who die from the disease. Since the beginning of the pandemic, IFR estimates have ranged from less than 0.1% to a whopping 25%, depending on the size of the study and the age of the population. A growing number of studies are converging at about 0.5 to 1%. In Iceland, where the median age is 37 — relatively young compared with other wealthy nations — and patients have access to good health care, Stefánsson’s team found it to be 0.3%.
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Travellers must either self-quarantine for 14 days after arrival or participate in two screening tests: one on arrival, followed by five days of quarantine, then a second test. This method has led to the discovery that 20% of people who ended up testing positive received a negative test in the first round, notes Guðnason. That is a high number, but seems consistent with other analyses13. The new requirement is likely to have caught many strains of virus that would have otherwise entered the country.
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Palsson’s team is planning to analyse the effect of viral loads on patient outcomes and viral transmission, and to use contact-tracing data to tease out the risk factors for a super-spreading event. “We’ve had households where almost everybody gets infected, then other places where people carry the infection and stay in the workplace and nobody gets infected,” says Palsson. “It’s very difficult to understand.”
