Humans may be extinct in 100 years
Professor Frank Fenner
(PhysOrg.com) -- Eminent Australian scientist Professor Frank Fenner, who helped to wipe out smallpox, predicts humans will probably be extinct within 100 years, because of overpopulation, environmental destruction and climate change.
Fenner, who is emeritus professor of microbiology at the Australian National University (ANU) in Canberra, said homo sapiens will not be able to survive the population explosion and “unbridled consumption,” and will become extinct, perhaps within a century, along with many other species. United Nations official figures from last year estimate the human population is 6.8 billion, and is predicted to pass seven billion next year.
Fenner told The Australian he tries not to express his pessimism because people are trying to do something, but keep putting it off. He said he believes the situation is irreversible, and it is too late because the effects we have had on Earth since industrialization (a period now known to scientists unofficially as the Anthropocene) rivals any effects of ice ages or comet impacts.

World population growth chart.
Fenner said that climate change is only at its beginning, but is likely to be the cause of our extinction. “We’ll undergo the same fate as the people on Easter Island,” he said. More people means fewer resources, and Fenner predicts “there will be a lot more wars over food.”
More information: www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/easter.html
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
For years I've believed that there's a 50/50 chance that humans will make it out of the 21st century. The climate change talks in Paris will have a major impact on which side of the 50 we'll be on.
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Posted in reply to the post by Sara S:
...Fenner said that climate change is only at its beginning, but is likely to be the cause of our extinction....
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
He said this over 5 years ago when the world population was 6.8 billion and it's now 7.3 billion.
Then he died within the year. Reminds us that the sands of time are soon running through the hourglass for each of us. And possibly for all of us, our descendants and many other species and sentient beings too.
https://phys.org/news/2010-06-humans...scientist.html
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
One hundred ninety-five countries are about to conclude the climate change conference in Paris and I have new reason to feel optimistic. If the goals of the conference are achieved, the world will gradually eliminate the consumption of fossil fuels in favor of a variety of renewable energy sources. The larger, more prosperous nations will financially assist the developing nations to make the transition and there will be verifiable measurements of each nation's progress towards this goal.
Like trying to turn around a large ship in the ocean, the benefits to the world's climate will not be immediate nor even attainable in the short term. It will probably take at least decades before the climate returns to its normal cycle. Most importantly, if this mission is successful, we will avert the greatest catastrophe, reaching a tipping point in which so much greenhouse gases are emitted in the form of carbon dioxide and methane gas that global warming spirals out of control, thereby making Earth inhabitable for human civilization and most other species of plants and animals. Let's hope the nations of the world rally together to prevent this from every happening.
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by BobHeisler:
For years I've believed that there's a 50/50 chance that humans will make it out of the 21st century. The climate change talks in Paris will have a major impact on which side of the 50 we'll be on.
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
Where are you getting your information about the climate agreement? First, it's voluntary. And it condemns the world to at least 3 degrees celcius.
"James Hansen -- well known as a retired NASA scientist and climate researcher who worked hard since the 1970s ( initially without much effect) to make the world aware of climate change, its causes and its hazards -- also responded to the climate agreement. He was quoted in a "Guardian" article, and he was very blunt: "It's a fraud, really, a fake. ... It's just bullshit for them to say, 'we'll have a 2 degree warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.' It's just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will continue to be burned."
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by BobHeisler:
One hundred ninety-five countries are about to conclude the climate change conference in Paris and I have new reason to feel optimistic. ....
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
"Where Have All the Flowers Gone?" by Peter, Paul, & Mary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGpbuQFJOIY
Peter Seeger's version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pZa3KtkVpQ
"Where Have All the Flowers Gone?" is a modern folk-style song. The melody and the first three verses were written by Pete Seeger in 1955 and published in Sing Out! magazine.[1] Additional verses were added by Joe Hickerson in May 1960, who turned it into a circular song.[2] Its rhetorical "where?" and meditation on death place the song in the ubi sunt tradition.[3][better source needed] In 2010, the New Statesman listed it as one of the "Top 20 Political Songs".[4]
The 1964 release of the song as a Columbia Records 45 single, 13-33088, by Pete Seeger was inducted into the Grammy Hall of Fame in 2002 in the Folk category.
Composition: Seeger found inspiration for the song in October 1955 while he was on a plane bound for a concert at Oberlin College, one of the few venues which would hire him during the McCarthy era.[5] Leafing through his notebook he saw the passage, "Where are the flowers, the girls have plucked them. Where are the girls, they've all taken husbands. Where are the men, they're all in the army."[6] These lines were taken from the traditional Cossack folk song "Koloda-Duda", referenced in the Mikhail Sholokhov novel And Quiet Flows the Don (1934), which Seeger had read "at least a year or two before".[3]
Seeger created a song which was subsequently published in Sing Out in 1962. He recorded a version with three verses on The Rainbow Quest album (Folkways LP FA 2454) released in July 1960. Later, Joe Hickerson added two more verses with a recapitulation of the first[3] in May 1960 in Bloomington, Indiana.[7]
In 2010, the New Statesman listed it as one of the "Top 20 Political Songs".[4]
The song appeared on the compilation album Pete Seeger's Greatest Hits (1967) released by Columbia Records as CS 9416.
Pete Seeger's recording from the Columbia album The Bitter and the Sweet (November 1962), CL 1916, produced by John H. Hammond was also released as a Columbia Hall of Fame 45 single as 13-33088 backed by "Little Boxes" in August, 1965.[8][9]
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
The great Australian anti-nuclear activist and pediatrician, Helen Caldicott, said years ago that if people really love the planet, they will not have children and just let the human race die out. She was despairing because she had come to the US to try to rally Americans to her cause and hit a brick wall.
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by BobHeisler:
For years I've believed that there's a 50/50 chance that humans will make it out of the 21st century. The climate change talks in Paris will have a major impact on which side of the 50 we'll be on.
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
How about instead of volunteering to go extinct, we treat our wonderful planet with the love, respect and care she deserves?
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by wisewomn:
...Helen Caldicott, said years ago that if people really love the planet, they will not have children and just let the human race die out...
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by BobHeisler:
How about instead of volunteering to go extinct, we treat our wonderful planet with the love, respect and care she deserves?
some dinosaur's saying "I told you that it wasn't gonna last forever..."
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
Worthy sentiment, Bob, but I doubt we have time to get everyone on board or if it's even possible--think corporations, politicians, greedheads, sociopaths, etc.
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by BobHeisler:
How about instead of volunteering to go extinct, we treat our wonderful planet with the love, respect and care she deserves?
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
There will be an extinction event that will wipe out all life on earth permanently. That will happen when our star, the sun, explodes. This will destroy, in a huuuge ball of fire, all of the earth's surface and atmosphere. And even if anything could survive the initial devastation, the lack of sufficient sun power and energy will leave what is left of the earth cold and frigid. If anything does survive it will inevitably die.
But an extinction event is far more likely to take place long before then because the death of our sun is not slated for another 5 billion years or so. In order to avoid extinction of the human species we must colonize other planets, such as Mars, Europa (which is a moon in our solar system), etc. Moving to Mars, for example, is necessary because an asteroid or some other unforeseen debacle, which will be out of our control, will destroy earth long before our sun dies.
Finally, because our sun will eventually collapse into a White Dwarf, our solar system will become uninhabitable. This means that our species will have to colonize OUTSIDE our solar system. We will have to first find a planet like earth (or close enough, can't get too picky), in another solar system somewhere in our galaxy, the Milky Way. Humans will have to spend the rest of eternity hopping around. Maybe we will eventually even make it to another galaxy.
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Posted in reply to the post by podfish:
some dinosaur's saying "I told you that it wasn't gonna last forever..."
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
With the U.S. rushing toward World War III with vengeance and a military that is a top polluter and cause of climate change, I doubt seriously that humanity will endure another century, unless it seriously changes its behavior. The good news is that the Earth is likely to survive, though many life forms may perish, in my opinion. Humanity is in a rush to destroy itself. I still believe that it is possible to turn the tide against this head-long movement to disaster, but it will take a lot of direct action, clear thinking, and sacrifice.
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by Sara S:
Professor Frank Fenner
(PhysOrg.com) -- Eminent Australian scientist Professor Frank Fenner, who helped to wipe out smallpox, predicts humans will probably be extinct within 100 years, because of overpopulation, environmental destruction and climate change...
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by Edward Mendoza:
There will be an extinction event that will wipe out all life on earth permanently...
Edward, obviously you are "experienced" and can see far into the future in ways only "experienced" folks can.
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
LOL!
Jon, sweetie, I'm not "experienced," as you say. (The future is not in the past.)
I studied astronomy at Santa Rosa Junior College. My instructor was Gerry Waxman (Press Democrat), whose son, Keith, teaches there now. My daughter took an astronomy course recently from Keith Waxman, and she is interested in becoming an astronomer herself. (The Press Democrat article I have cited, above, misspells Gerry's name with a 'J.')
I also enjoy watching many documentaries on astrophysics, astronomy, physics, etc, such as the "Cosmos" series, narrated by Carl Sagan and Neil DeGrasse Tyson; Star Talk radio, and others. I enjoy reading about science and watching science programs and documentaries narrated by Stephen Hawking, Richard Dawkins, and many others.
I'm really sorry to see that there are so many Americans who believe, mistakenly, that you cannot know something unless "you were there" but that is the wanting "argument" that many religious people use to deny not only the fact of evolution but also to deny Climate Change. Sad, actually tragic, in light of the consequences if we do not act upon the recent Paris agreements regarding the environment and the future of our home, the planet Earth.
The fossil record, DNA research, carbon dating, physics, mathematics, and science in general give humans the ability to know with a high degree of accuracy what happened in the past, far back in the past, the future, and far into the future. Sure, we cannot be absolutely certain about anything. I will leave that kind of certainty and "experience" to religious people, climate change deniers, creationists, flat earthers, etc.
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Posted in reply to the post by jbox:
Edward, obviously you are "experienced" and can see far into the future in ways only "experienced" folks can.
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by jbox:
Edward, obviously you are "experienced" and can see far into the future in ways only "experienced" folks can.
Channelling Jimi...
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by Shepherd:
With the U.S. rushing toward World War III with vengeance and a military that is a top polluter and cause of climate change, I doubt seriously that humanity will endure another century, unless it seriously changes its behavior. The good news is that the Earth is likely to survive, though many life forms may perish, in my opinion. Humanity is in a rush to destroy itself. I still believe that it is possible to turn the tide against this head-long movement to disaster, but it will take a lot of direct action, clear thinking, and sacrifice.
if that's really what it will take, we're screwed.
Actually that's too cynical. Two out of three's not bad, and that's what's typically been the historical (and the natural world's) pattern. No doubt there will be lots that changes, equally no doubt we're not correctly anticipating the future. In hindsight you can always find someone who 'predicted' any current situation - but at the time of the prediction, there were many other equally plausible visions for the future.
It seems unlikely we're headed for JGBallard's "Drowned World" but it's unlikely the world ends up looking like an American suburban utopia, which seems to have been a view of the future unconsciously held by a lot of people. The forest-covered world of a several millenia ago, the world of sweeping invasions of a couple of millenia ago, the world of urbanization of a couple of centuries ago, the world shaped by communication technology of a couple of decades ago, all gone and looking way different from their successors. I won't even attempt to project what's next.
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by jbox:
Edward, obviously you are "experienced" and can see far into the future in ways only "experienced" folks can.
Edward, obviously you are 'aware and alive' and can see far into the future in accordance with anyone who is even slightly 'aware and alive'.
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
Jon, thank you for the compliment.
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by jbox:
Edward, obviously you are "experienced" and can see far into the future in ways only "experienced" folks can.
Re: Humans may be extinct in 100 years
Some of us ARE, but those who AREN'T, probably WONT. It's difficult to change someone's point of view on almost anything, but an unconscious point of view is nearly impossible to shift. MONEY RULES LIFE on this planet, and most of us are controlled by it. Many of us are VOLUNTARILY controlled by it. It's the perfect time to see this. We don't need to look very far in our own community. What do you see, besides a few positive steps to help those less fortunate? I see voluntary "Shop Til You Drop". I see people eyes avoiding other eyes, but voluntarily focused on their screen of choice.
My son sent a picture of his Dad and my grand daughter sitting at a table, together, with both looking only at their screens. I felt a deep sadness when I saw this. First, we need to treat each other with the love, respect and care that everyone deserves as beings alive on this planet at this time. BE AWARE of yourself, and how YOUR ACTIONS affect the wellbeing of this planet. Don't think that Paris will have the solution. We're contributing to the demise of our home planet. Remember "If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem"?
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by BobHeisler:
How about instead of volunteering to go extinct, we treat our wonderful planet with the love, respect and care she deserves?
