The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence
Amazing read, take your time its mind boggling. I lean towards optimistic about this myself.
Dodie
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artif...olution-1.html
The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence
By Tim Urban
Note: The reason this post took three weeks to finish is that as I dug into research on Artificial Intelligence, I could not believe what I was reading. It hit me pretty quickly that what’s happening in the world of AI is not just an important topic, but by far THE most important topic for our future. So I wanted to learn as much as I could about it, and once I did that, I wanted to make sure I wrote a post that really explained this whole situation and why it matters so much. Not shockingly, that became outrageously long, so I broke it into two parts. This is Part 1—Part 2 is here. _______________
We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. — Vernor Vinge
What does it feel like to stand here?
It seems like a pretty intense place to be standing—but then you have to remember something about what it’s like to stand on a time graph: you can’t see what’s to your right. So here’s how it actually feels to stand there:Which probably feels pretty normal…
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The Far Future—Coming Soon
Imagine taking a time machine back to 1750—a time when the world was in a permanent power outage, long-distance communication meant either yelling loudly or firing a cannon in the air, and all transportation ran on hay. When you get there, you retrieve a dude, bring him to 2015, and then walk him around and watch him react to everything. It’s impossible for us to understand what it would be like for him to see shiny capsules racing by on a highway, talk to people who had been on the other side of the ocean earlier in the day, watch sports that were being played 1,000 miles away, hear a musical performance that happened 50 years ago, and play with my magical wizard rectangle that he could use to capture a real-life image or record a living moment, generate a map with a paranormal moving blue dot that shows him where he is, look at someone’s face and chat with them even though they’re on the other side of the country, and worlds of other inconceivable sorcery. This is all before you show him the internet or explain things like the International Space Station, the Large Hadron Collider, nuclear weapons, or general relativity.
This experience for him wouldn’t be surprising or shocking or even mind-blowing—those words aren’t big enough. He might actually die.
But here’s the interesting thing—if he then went back to 1750 and got jealous that we got to see his reaction and decided he wanted to try the same thing, he’d take the time machine and go back the same distance, get someone from around the year 1500, bring him to 1750, and show him everything. And the 1500 guy would be shocked by a lot of things—but he wouldn’t die. It would be far less of an insane experience for him, because while 1500 and 1750 were very different, they were much lessdifferent than 1750 to 2015. The 1500 guy would learn some mind-bending shit about space and physics, he’d be impressed with how committed Europe turned out to be with that new imperialism fad, and he’d have to do some major revisions of his world map conception. But watching everyday life go by in 1750—transportation, communication, etc.—definitely wouldn’t make him die.
No, in order for the 1750 guy to have as much fun as we had with him, he’d have to go much farther back—maybe all the way back to about 12,000 BC, before the First Agricultural Revolution gave rise to the first cities and to the concept of civilization. If someone from a purely hunter-gatherer world—from a time when humans were, more or less, just another animal species—saw the vast human empires of 1750 with their towering churches, their ocean-crossing ships, their concept of being “inside,” and their enormous mountain of collective, accumulated human knowledge and discovery—he’d likely die.
And then what if, after dying, he got jealous and wanted to do the same thing. If he went back 12,000 years to 24,000 BC and got a guy and brought him to 12,000 BC, he’d show the guy everything and the guy would be like, “Okay what’s your point who cares.” For the 12,000 BC guy to have the same fun, he’d have to go back over 100,000 years and get someone he could show fire and language to for the first time.
In order for someone to be transported into the future and die from the level of shock they’d experience, they have to go enough years ahead that a “die level of progress,” or a Die Progress Unit (DPU) has been achieved. So a DPU took over 100,000 years in hunter-gatherer times, but at the post-Agricultural Revolution rate, it only took about 12,000 years. The post-Industrial Revolution world has moved so quickly that a 1750 person only needs to go forward a couple hundred years for a DPU to have happened.
This pattern—human progress moving quicker and quicker as time goes on—is what futurist Ray Kurzweil calls human history’s Law of Accelerating Returns. This happens because more advanced societies have the ability to progress at a faster rate than less advanced societies—because they’re more advanced. 19th century humanity knew more and had better technology than 15th century humanity, so it’s no surprise that humanity made far more advances in the 19th century than in the 15th century—15th century humanity was no match for 19th century humanity.11← open these
This works on smaller scales too. The movie Back to the Future came out in 1985, and “the past” took place in 1955. In the movie, when Michael J. Fox went back to 1955, he was caught off-guard by the newness of TVs, the prices of soda, the lack of love for shrill electric guitar, and the variation in slang. It was a different world, yes—but if the movie were made today and the past took place in 1985, the movie could have had much more fun with much bigger differences. The character would be in a time before personal computers, internet, or cell phones—today’s Marty McFly, a teenager born in the late 90s, would be much more out of place in 1985 than the movie’s Marty McFly was in 1955.
This is for the same reason we just discussed—the Law of Accelerating Returns. The average rate of advancement between 1985 and 2015 was higher than the rate between 1955 and 1985—because the former was a more advanced world—so much more change happened in the most recent 30 years than in the prior 30.
So—advances are getting bigger and bigger and happening more and more quickly. This suggests some pretty intense things about our future, right?
Continues here.
Re: The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence
I have just started reading this masterpiece! (I'm sill on chapter 1.)
I too am optimistic. Although I have to admit I have not finished reading it, the subject of humans being obliterated by their own machinations goes as far back, at least, as Mary Shelley's "Frankenstein; or, The Modern Prometheus," 1818, the same year Karl Marx was born! (So imagine that. Who knows, maybe there is a connection between the two.)
One argument against humanity is that private industry cannot self-regulate. What this means is that the biggest manufacturers of robots (in the future, of course) will only look as far as their profit margin tells them to. And coupled with the usual corporate disdain for public safety and social responsibility, then we can ponder with greater fears what the future holds.
There have been many books, movies, series, etc, going back decades, where the scenario of a robot revolution toppling or destroying the human race is the central message. This is by no means a new topic.
Nonetheless, I find it hard to believe that we will be so stupid so as to allow future superintelligent machines, computers, and robots subjugate us. But we won't know this for sure for another hundred years or so, maybe longer.
There was a movie, very pertinent to this discussion, called, "Colossus: The Forbin Project," 1970. I also enjoyed watching another movie along the same idea, "Westworld," with Yul Brynner, 1973. Today, there are many movies, series, and books based on this subject.
Autonomous robots would be a greater concern. What if all of our police were replaced with robocops and then they decided that they had to take over for security reasons? But how would autonomous robots cooperate with the larger, mainframes? Would that be easy for them to do? Would they even think about it in the first place? And why would the large mainframes cooperate with the physically autonomous robots?
There are a lot of good questions to ask because we are still in the dark and we won't get clearer on these issues until we inch closer, each year, to our superintelligent future.
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by bill shearer:
Amazing read, take your time its mind boggling. I lean towards optimistic about this myself.
Dodie
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artif...olution-1.html
The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence
By Tim Urban
Note: The reason this post took three weeks to finish is that as I dug into research on Artificial Intelligence, I could not believe what I was reading. It hit me pretty quickly that what’s happening in the world of AI is not just an important topic, but by far THE most important topic for our future. So I wanted to learn as much as I could about it, and once I did that, I wanted to make sure I wrote a post that really explained this whole situation and why it matters so much. Not shockingly, that became outrageously long, so I broke it into two parts. This is Part 1—Part 2 is here. _______________
We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. — Vernor Vinge
Re: The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence
Part 2 is even better! here is a quote from near the end of the piece
"If ASI really does happen this century, and if the outcome of that is really as extreme—and permanent—as most experts think it will be, we have an enormous responsibility on our shoulders. The next million+ years of human lives are all quietly looking at us, hoping as hard as they can hope that we don’t mess this up. We have a chance to be the humans that gave all future humans the gift of life, and maybe even the gift of painless, everlasting life. Or we’ll be the people responsible for blowing it—for letting this incredibly special species, with its music and its art, its curiosity and its laughter, its endless discoveries and inventions, come to a sad and unceremonious end."
I think that to be alive at all is absofriggingmazing and to be here at such a time in the history of humanity is as awesome as awesome gets!
Re: The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence
I can't wait to get to finish Part 2!
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by bill shearer:
Part 2 is even better! here is a quote from near the end of the piece
"If ASI really does happen this century...
Re: The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence
Quote:
Posted in reply to the post by Edward Mendoza:
I have just started reading this masterpiece! (I'm sill on chapter 1.)
I've just started, and although it's an interesting presentation, I wouldn't go as far as 'masterpiece'. In particular, I think he's overselling the pace of change. Only by a little, it's pretty fast, all right, but though a 50's time-traveller might find cell phones etc. pretty amazing, and even more, gay marriage, a black president & nudity on cable TV a bit shocking, a lot of daily life hasn't changed. Sure we don't have our flying cars yet, but we still raise families, think people with opposing political views are completely crazy, and (with luck) go to work every day. Some of those who don't go to work still sleep by the tracks. Even Chaucer would find that recognizable. And racism, sexism, illogical magical thinking, personal ambition and presence or lack of social conscience still shape the world and human interactions.
Now if/when the robot overlords do decide to run things more efficiently, I'll change my views.
Re: The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence
Re: The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence
This looks like 3-D but the company (https://www.terrafugia.com) is developing a prototype, if I'm not mistaken:
https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/emb...SWtazRCM?rel=0
Re: The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence
Re: The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence
Re: The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence
The 2015 DARPA Robotics Challenge Finals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P9geWwi9e0
Published on Jun 12, 2015
The DARPA Challenge is a competitive obstacle course that allows robotics teams to win millions in prize money. More than that, the challenge displays the future benefits of general purpose robots that could aide in future disaster relief.
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Science & Technology
Re: The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence
Future Military Robots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVT5TfFL4Os
Published on Aug 25, 2014
Warfare is going through its most significant change in human history. This is an in-depth look at how robotics is increasingly preventing soldiers from rich nations from dying in battle.
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