Sara S
10-10-2011, 05:39 AM
from delancyplace.com:
In today's excerpt - in the view of esteemed inventor Ray Kurzweil, the pace of
technological change in our world is accelerating so rapidly that there will soon
be no distinction between human and machine or between physical and virtual reality
- and eventually our technology will match and then vastly exceed the refinement
and suppleness of what we regard as the best of human traits:
"Consider this parable: a lake owner wants to stay at home to tend to the lake's
fish and make certain that the lake itself will not become covered with lily pads,
which are said to double their number every few days. Month after month, he patiently
waits, yet only tiny patches of lily pads can be discerned, and they don't seem
to be expanding in any noticeable way. With the lily pads covering less than 1 percent
of the lake, the owner figures that it's safe to take a vacation and leaves with
his family. When he returns a few weeks later, he's shocked to discover that the
entire lake has become covered with the pads, and his fish have perished. By doubling
their number every few days, the last seven doublings were sufficient to extend
the pads' coverage to the entire lake. (Seven doublings extended their reach 128-fold.)
This is the nature of exponential growth.
"Consider Gary Kasparov, who scorned the pathetic state of computer chess in 1992.
Yet the relentless doubling of computer power every year enabled a computer to defeat
him only five years later. The list of ways computers can now exceed human capabilities
is rapidly growing. Moreover, the once narrow applications of computer intelligence
are gradually broadening in one type of activity after another. For example, computers
are diagnosing electrocardio- grams and medical images, flying and landing airplanes,
controlling the tactical decisions of automated weapons, making credit and financial
decisions, and being given responsibility for many other tasks that used to require
human intelligence. The performance of these systems is increasingly based on inte-
grating multiple types of artificial intelligence (AI). But as long as there is
an AI shortcoming in any such area of endeavor, skeptics will point to that area
as an inherent bastion of permanent human superiority over the capabilities of
our own creations. ...
"Although impressive in many respects, the human brain suffers from severe limitations.
We use its massive parallelism (one hundred trillion interneuronal connections operating
simultaneously) to quickly recognize subtle patterns. But our thinking is extremely
slow: the basic neural transactions are several million times slower than contemporary
electronic circuits. That makes our physiological bandwidth for processing new information
extremely limited compared to the exponential growth of the overall human knowledge
base. ...
"While human intelligence is sometimes capable of soaring in its creativity and
expressiveness, much human thought is derivative, petty, and circumscribed. The
[acceleration of technological change] will allow us to transcend these limitations
of our biological bodies and brains. We will gain power over our fates. Our mortality
will be in our own hands. We will be able to live as long as we want (a subtly different
statement from saying we will live forever). We will fully understand human thinking
and will vastly extend and expand its reach. By the end of this century, the nonbiological
portion of our intelligence will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful
than unaided human intelligence. ...
"Before the middle of this century, the growth rates of our technology - which will
be indistinguishable from ourselves - will be so steep as to appear essentially
vertical. From a strictly mathematical perspective, the growth rates will still
be finite but so extreme that the changes they bring about will appear to rupture
the fabric of human history. That, at least, will be the perspective of unenhanced
biological humanity.
"[The result will ultimately] be no distinction between human and machine or between
physical and virtual reality. If you wonder what will remain unequi- vocally human
in such a world, it's simply this quality: ours is the species that inherently seeks
to extend its physical and mental reach beyond current limitations.
"Many commentators on these changes focus on what they perceive as a loss of some
vital aspect of our humanity that will result from this transition. This perspective
stems, however, from a misunderstanding of what our technology will become. All
the machines we have met to date lack the essential subtlety of human biological
qualities. Although [long-term technological change] has many faces, its most important
implication is this: our technology will match and then vastly exceed the refinement
and suppleness of what we regard as the best of human traits."
Author: Ray Kurzweil
Title: The Singularity is Near
Publisher: Penguin
Date: Copyright 2005 by Ray Kurzweil
Pages: 8-9
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology
by Ray Kurzweil by Penguin
Paperback
In today's excerpt - in the view of esteemed inventor Ray Kurzweil, the pace of
technological change in our world is accelerating so rapidly that there will soon
be no distinction between human and machine or between physical and virtual reality
- and eventually our technology will match and then vastly exceed the refinement
and suppleness of what we regard as the best of human traits:
"Consider this parable: a lake owner wants to stay at home to tend to the lake's
fish and make certain that the lake itself will not become covered with lily pads,
which are said to double their number every few days. Month after month, he patiently
waits, yet only tiny patches of lily pads can be discerned, and they don't seem
to be expanding in any noticeable way. With the lily pads covering less than 1 percent
of the lake, the owner figures that it's safe to take a vacation and leaves with
his family. When he returns a few weeks later, he's shocked to discover that the
entire lake has become covered with the pads, and his fish have perished. By doubling
their number every few days, the last seven doublings were sufficient to extend
the pads' coverage to the entire lake. (Seven doublings extended their reach 128-fold.)
This is the nature of exponential growth.
"Consider Gary Kasparov, who scorned the pathetic state of computer chess in 1992.
Yet the relentless doubling of computer power every year enabled a computer to defeat
him only five years later. The list of ways computers can now exceed human capabilities
is rapidly growing. Moreover, the once narrow applications of computer intelligence
are gradually broadening in one type of activity after another. For example, computers
are diagnosing electrocardio- grams and medical images, flying and landing airplanes,
controlling the tactical decisions of automated weapons, making credit and financial
decisions, and being given responsibility for many other tasks that used to require
human intelligence. The performance of these systems is increasingly based on inte-
grating multiple types of artificial intelligence (AI). But as long as there is
an AI shortcoming in any such area of endeavor, skeptics will point to that area
as an inherent bastion of permanent human superiority over the capabilities of
our own creations. ...
"Although impressive in many respects, the human brain suffers from severe limitations.
We use its massive parallelism (one hundred trillion interneuronal connections operating
simultaneously) to quickly recognize subtle patterns. But our thinking is extremely
slow: the basic neural transactions are several million times slower than contemporary
electronic circuits. That makes our physiological bandwidth for processing new information
extremely limited compared to the exponential growth of the overall human knowledge
base. ...
"While human intelligence is sometimes capable of soaring in its creativity and
expressiveness, much human thought is derivative, petty, and circumscribed. The
[acceleration of technological change] will allow us to transcend these limitations
of our biological bodies and brains. We will gain power over our fates. Our mortality
will be in our own hands. We will be able to live as long as we want (a subtly different
statement from saying we will live forever). We will fully understand human thinking
and will vastly extend and expand its reach. By the end of this century, the nonbiological
portion of our intelligence will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful
than unaided human intelligence. ...
"Before the middle of this century, the growth rates of our technology - which will
be indistinguishable from ourselves - will be so steep as to appear essentially
vertical. From a strictly mathematical perspective, the growth rates will still
be finite but so extreme that the changes they bring about will appear to rupture
the fabric of human history. That, at least, will be the perspective of unenhanced
biological humanity.
"[The result will ultimately] be no distinction between human and machine or between
physical and virtual reality. If you wonder what will remain unequi- vocally human
in such a world, it's simply this quality: ours is the species that inherently seeks
to extend its physical and mental reach beyond current limitations.
"Many commentators on these changes focus on what they perceive as a loss of some
vital aspect of our humanity that will result from this transition. This perspective
stems, however, from a misunderstanding of what our technology will become. All
the machines we have met to date lack the essential subtlety of human biological
qualities. Although [long-term technological change] has many faces, its most important
implication is this: our technology will match and then vastly exceed the refinement
and suppleness of what we regard as the best of human traits."
Author: Ray Kurzweil
Title: The Singularity is Near
Publisher: Penguin
Date: Copyright 2005 by Ray Kurzweil
Pages: 8-9
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology
by Ray Kurzweil by Penguin
Paperback