Solar flare eruptions set to reach Earth [Archive]

Hotspring 44

02-17-2011, 09:19 PM

17 February 2011 Last updated at 08:07 ET By Paul Rincon Science reporter, BBC News

Solar flare eruptions set to reach Earth (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12493980)

 Scientists around the world will be watching closely as three eruptions from the Sun reach the Earth over Thursday and Friday.

These "coronal mass ejections" will slam into the Earth's magnetic shield.

The waves of charged solar particles are the result of three solar flares directed at Earth in recent days, including the most powerful since 2006.

The biggest flares can disrupt technology, including power grids, communications systems and satellites.

The northern lights (Aurora Borealis) may also be visible further south than is normally the case - including from northern parts of the UK.

"Our current view is that the effect of the solar flare is likely to reach Earth later today (Thursday GMT), possibly tomorrow morning," said Alan Thomson, head of geomagnetism at the British Geological Survey (BGS).

He told BBC News: "In the scientific community, there's a feeling that it's not as intense as we first thought it might be. But it's possible still that it could be a large enough event for us to see the northern lights in the UK."

However, weather forecasts suggested cloudy conditions could mar views of any aurorae.

Technological impact

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said that three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were en route as the result of solar flares on the 13, 14 and 15 February (GMT).

"The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid-to-late day tomorrow, February 17," read a statement from Noaa's Space Weather Prediction Center.

The flare recorded at 0156 GMT on 15 February was the strongest such event in four years, according to the US space agency (Nasa), which has been monitoring activity on the Sun. The event was classified as a so-called X-flare, the most intense type.

The source of all three events, sunspot 1158, has expanded rapidly in recent days.

Solar flares are caused by the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun's atmosphere.

Their effects can interfere with modern technology on Earth, such as electrical power grids, communications systems and satellites - including satellite navigation (or sat-nav) signals.

Although scientists are expecting most geomagnetic activity to occur on Thursday, Chinese state media has already reported some disruption to shortwave radio communications in the south of the country.

Awakening Sun

In 1972, a geomagnetic storm provoked by a solar flare knocked out long-distance telephone communication across the US state of Illinois. And in 1989, another storm plunged six million people into darkness across the Canadian province of Quebec.

Dr Thomson said it was possible infrastructure could be affected this time, but stressed: "The X-flare that was observed the other day was lower in magnitude than similar flares that have been associated with technological damage such as the loss of the Quebec power grid... and even the large magnetic storm in 2003, which caused some damage to satellites in orbit."

Scientists will have around half an hour's notice that the wave of charged particles is about to hit the Earth's magnetic shield.

This is taken from the point at which a Nasa satellite called Ace (the Advanced Composition Explorer) registers the solar radiation on its instruments: "We're sitting waiting for that event to happen," said Dr Thomson.

Researchers say the Sun has been awakening after a period of several years of low activity.

Hotspring 44

02-20-2011, 06:13 PM

Space weather could wreak havoc in gadget-driven world (https://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/usastronomyspacetelecomweather)

<cite>by Kerry Sheridan</cite>

WASHINGTON (AFP) (https://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/afp/brand/SIG=ofqlv2;_ylt=AsU_Ud8wM5WtL4r2TgpYZGSOOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTB0ZG1pbGZzBHBvcwMxBHNlYwN5bi1wcnZkbGluawRzbGsDYWZw/*http:/www.afp.com) – A geomagnetic space storm sparked by a solar eruption like the one that flared toward Earth Tuesday is bound to strike again and could wreak havoc across the gadget-happy modern world, experts say.

Contemporary society is increasingly vulnerable to space weather because of our dependence on satellite systems for synchronizing computers, airline navigation, telecommunications networks and other electronic devices.

A potent solar storm could disrupt these technologies, scorch satellites, crash stock markets and cause power outages that last weeks or months, experts said Saturday at the American Association for the Advancement of Science's annual meeting.

The situation will only get more dire because the solar cycle is heading into a period of more intense activity in the coming 11 years.

"This is not a matter of if, it is simply a matter of when and how big," said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration administrator Jane Lubchenco.

"The last time we had a maximum in the solar cycle, about 10 years ago, the world was a very different place. Cell phones are now ubiquitous; they were certainly around (before) but we didn't rely on them for so many different things," she said.

"Many things that we take for granted today are so much more prone to the process of space weather than was the case in the last solar maximum."

The experts admitted that currently, little that can be done to predict such a storm, much less shield the world's electrical grid by doing anything other shutting off power to some of the vulnerable areas until the danger passes.

"Please don't panic," said Stephan Lechner, director of the European Commission Joint Research Center, drawing laughter from the scientists and journalists in the audience. "Overreaction will make the situation worse."

The root of the world's vulnerability in the modern age is global positioning systems, or GPS devices, that provide navigational help but also serve as time synchronizers for computer networks and electronic equipment, he said.

"GPS helped and created a new dependency," said Lechner, noting that the technology's influence extends to aerospace and defense, digital broadcast, financial services and government agencies.

In Europe alone, there are 200 separate telecommunication operators, and "nothing is standardized," he said.

"We are far from understanding all the implications here," he said.

World governments are hurrying to work on strategies for cooperation and information sharing ahead of the next anticipated storm, though forecasters admit they are not sure when that may occur.

"Actually we cannot tell if there is going to be a big storm six months from now but we can tell when conditions are ripe for a storm to take place," said the European Space Agency's Juha-Pekka Luntama.

On Tuesday at 0156 GMT, a huge solar eruption, the strongest in about five years, sent a torrent of charged plasma particles hurtling toward the Earth at a speed of 560 miles (900 kilometers) per second.

The force of the Class X flash, the most powerful of all solar events, lit up auroras and disrupted some radio communications, but the effects were largely confined to the northern latitudes.

"Actually it turned out that we were well protected this time. The magnetic fields were aligned parallel so not much happened," said Luntama.

"In another case things might have been different."

Space storms are not new. The first major solar flare was recorded by British astronomer Richard Carrington in 1859.

Other solar geomagnetic storms have been observed in recent decades. One huge solar flare in 1972 cut off long-distance telephone communication in the midwestern state of Illinois, NASA said.

Another similar flare in 1989 "provoked geomagnetic storms that disrupted electric power transmission" and caused blackouts across the Canadian province of Quebec, the US space agency said.

A panel of NASA-assembled scientists issued a report in 2009 that said a powerful solar flare could overwhelm high-voltage transformers with electrical currents and short-circuit energy grids.

Such a catastrophic event could cost the United States alone up to two trillion dollars in repairs in the first year -- and it could take up to 10 years to fully recover, the report said.