Excellent NYT analysis of Iran power struggle

[Barry]

I think this is a huge story and I am very interested to see how it develops!

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/08/world/middleeast/08clerics.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

[Mike Van Horn]

Yes, I agree, good article, Barry.

Control of oil corrupts absolutely. A small group grabs control, gives guns to a favored elite, and fends everyone else off. Iran, Nigeria, Sudan, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia of course, Russia. All the same: thugocracies with a faux veneer of democracy to fool the peaceniks and placate their own citizens.

The entrenched leaders are pitiless in the pursuit of their own power and survival. To retain power, they must cripple their own economies, because 21st century economies require knowledge workers, and these folks won't put up with this crap. They leave or go underground out of the economy.

How do the entrenched leaders ever get shaken loose? A few things can come together:

-- The price of oil can go down. There is a strong correlation between cheap oil and moderate voices. (But prices are going back up.)

-- Street protests, esp. if broad-based. (Ineffective by themselves because too much power is arrayed against them. It can work in Georgia or Ukraine because the leaders don't have oil dollars to fund their goon squads.)

-- Strong and consistent sanctions by outside leading nations. (Hard to make this work due to multi-sided prisoners' dilemma: someone is always willing to undercut the others for their short-term advantage.)

-- Alternative power centers with a grudge or a conscience. (Barry's NYT article hints at this, but is it just vain hopes?)

-- Other leading nations get their acts together, so that it is apparent that the rest of the world is passing the thugocrats by. (This is what did in the Soviet Union in a bloodless revolution. But most leading nations are currently in disarray on the macro level.)

Best results when these forces work together. What are the chances of this happening in Iran? Too soon to tell. We've recently noted the 20th anniversary of Tienanmen Square, and not much has changed in China politically.

mvh

[Hot Compost]

I think this is a huge story and I am very interested to see how it develops!

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/08/world/middleeast/08clerics.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

the article doesn't say a word about Mossadegh ?!

Iran was a democracy until sometime in the 1950's when their democratically elected leader was deposed by the US & England, and the Shah was installed.

an article that purports to be about "democracy in Iran" - without disclosing the role of the US in destroying their previous democracy ?

[Mike Van Horn]

If you were rewriting the NYT article, how would you complete this sentence: "When looking at the chances for the re-emergence of a real democracy in Iran today, it's important to consider the U.S. role in overthrowing Mossadegh because . . ."