Survey sees a drift away from religion in America

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Survey sees a drift away from religion in America | csmonitor.com (https://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0310/p01s02-ussc.html)

Survey sees a drift away from religion in America
The percentage of Christians in the US declined, while that of people with 'no religion' almost doubled.

By Jane Lampman | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
from the March 10, 2009 edition

Reporter Jane Lampman examines recent shifts in American religious beliefs.
Christianity's hold on many Americans is slipping, losing out not to other faiths but to "no faith."

Today, 76 percent of the US population call themselves Christians, compared with 86 percent in 1990, according to the third American Religious Self-Identification Survey (ARIS), released Monday by Trinity College in Hartford, Conn. Among Christians, the survey confirms that many are shedding denominational loyalties for a more generic Christian allegiance.

One in every 5 US adults chose not to identify a religious identity: 15 percent chose "no religion" and the other 5 percent declined to name one.

In the traditional Roman Catholic stronghold of New England, for instance, the number of Catholic adherents fell by 1 million between 1990 and 2008, with most of those moving to "no religion." Catholics dropped from 50 percent to 36 percent of the region's population. New York state lost 800,000 Catholics.

"The decline of Catholicism in the Northeast is nothing short of stunning," says Barry Kosmin, a principal investigator for the ARIS surveys of 1990, 2001, and 2008. "There is a correlation between the decline of Catholic identity and the rise of 'the nones,' " as the survey dubs the "no religion" group.

In a major surprise, the Northeast now surpasses the Pacific Northwest as the least religious part of the country. The "nones" represent 34 percent of the population of Vermont, 29 percent in New Hampshire, and 22 percent in Maine and Massachusetts.

Nevertheless, Catholics maintained their one-quarter share of the population, thanks mostly to immigration in the South and West, particularly in California and Texas.

The "no religion" group has gained 20 million adults since 1990 and is the only group to have grown in every state, though at a much slower pace in recent years than in the 1990s. Only 10 percent of that group explicitly identifies as atheist or agnostic.

DENOMINATIONAL DROP

During this same 18-year period, the number of Christians rose by 22 million, but their proportion declined. The survey found that most of that growth occurred among those who call themselves either nondenominational Christian, born again or evangelical Christian, or simply "Christian," declining to add a more specific affiliation.

Nondenominational Christians, generally associated with the rise of megachurches, increased from less than 200,000 in 1990 to more than 8 million today. Those opting for generic "Christian" account for 14 percent of the population. "Denominationalism, or Christian brands, have eroded since 1990 – even Protestant doesn't mean anything anymore," says Dr. Kosmin.

The evangelical or born-again label has spread to some Catholics and mainline Christians. "There's a kind of fashion for the term," Kosmin says. No definition was given for the label, but 34 percent of people identify as born again.

Mainline denominations (i.e., Methodist, Presbyterian, Episcopal) showed the greatest losses, declining sharply in numbers and dropping from 18.7 percent of the 1990 population to 12.9 percent today.

"It looks like the two-party system of American Protestantism – mainline versus evangelical – is collapsing," says Mark Silk, director of Trinity's Public Values Program.

As the US population rose by 30 percent between 1990 and 2008, Pentecostals (3.5 percent) and Mormons (1.4 percent) held on to their shares, while some smaller Protestant denominations grew slightly.

Non-Christian faiths recorded the fastest overall rate of growth (50 percent) after the "nones," but represent only 4 percent of Americans. The number of religious Jews (1.2 percent of the population) actually declined by 15 percent, with most of the loss involving young ethnic Jews choosing "no religion."

Buddhism rose to 0.5 percent of the population. The Muslim community doubled in the 1990s, but growth has slowed since; 1.35 million, or 0.6 percent of the population, now identify as Muslim.

New religious movements and groups such as Wiccans are also growing, and account for 1.2 percent of Americans.

AGE AND GENDER DIFFERENCES

For the first time, the ARIS 2008 survey included a question on beliefs about God, and the findings suggest some Americans may not share fully the theology of the groups with which they identify.

A little less than 70 percent believe "definitely in a personal God," with 12 percent believing "in a higher power but no personal God." Some 2.3 percent say there is no God, while 10 percent either don't know or don't think there is a way to know.

When asked about religious rituals, 30 percent of married respondents said they were not married in a religious ceremony, and 27 percent of all respondents said they do not expect to have a religious funeral when they die.

With regard to gender, the "no religion" group is the most heavily male (60 percent) among all the groups, while Pentecostals (58 percent) and Baptists (57 percent) have the highest female participation.

Age composition fluctuates considerably within religious groups. Baptists, Jews, and Pentecostals have the highest proportions of those 50 or over (more than half). Muslims and Eastern religions have the youngest, reflecting immigration. Today, 60 percent of Americans are under 50 years of age.

Americans' penchant for switching religions, revealed in a 2008 Religious Landscape Study by Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, makes it difficult to project trends into the future.

"When people grow up, will they really stay" in their group? Kosmin asks. And now that "a good fraction of the population is being raised outside the religious orbit," what does that mean for religious institutions?

ARIS interviewed 54,461 adults in either English or Spanish for the survey, which has a margin of error of less than 0.5 percent. It can be found at americanreligionsurvey-aris.org.

[Zeno Swijtink]

The coming evangelical collapse | csmonitor.com (https://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0310/p09s01-coop.html)

An anti-Christian chapter in Western history is about to begin. But out of the ruins, a new vitality and integrity will rise.
By Michael Spencer
from the March 10, 2009 edition

Oneida, Ky. - We are on the verge – within 10 years – of a major collapse of evangelical Christianity. This breakdown will follow the deterioration of the mainline Protestant world and it will fundamentally alter the religious and cultural environment in the West.

Within two generations, evangelicalism will be a house deserted of half its occupants. (Between 25 and 35 percent of Americans today are Evangelicals.) In the "Protestant" 20th century, Evangelicals flourished. But they will soon be living in a very secular and religiously antagonistic 21st century.

This collapse will herald the arrival of an anti-Christian chapter of the post-Christian West. Intolerance of Christianity will rise to levels many of us have not believed possible in our lifetimes, and public policy will become hostile toward evangelical Christianity, seeing it as the opponent of the common good.

Millions of Evangelicals will quit. Thousands of ministries will end. Christian media will be reduced, if not eliminated. Many Christian schools will go into rapid decline. I'm convinced the grace and mission of God will reach to the ends of the earth. But the end of evangelicalism as we know it is close.

Why is this going to happen?

1. Evangelicals have identified their movement with the culture war and with political conservatism. This will prove to be a very costly mistake. Evangelicals will increasingly be seen as a threat to cultural progress. Public leaders will consider us bad for America, bad for education, bad for children, and bad for society.

The evangelical investment in moral, social, and political issues has depleted our resources and exposed our weaknesses. Being against gay marriage and being rhetorically pro-life will not make up for the fact that massive majorities of Evangelicals can't articulate the Gospel with any coherence. We fell for the trap ofbelieving in a cause more than a faith.

2. We Evangelicals have failed to pass on to our young people an orthodox form of faith that can take root and survive the secular onslaught. Ironically, the billions of dollars we've spent on youth ministers, Christian music, publishing, and media has produced a culture of young Christians who know next to nothing about their own faith except how they feel about it. Our young people have deep beliefs about the culture war, but do not know why they should obey scripture, the essentials of theology, or the experience of spiritual discipline and community. Coming generations of Christians are going to be monumentally ignorant and unprepared for culture-wide pressures.

3. There are three kinds of evangelical churches today: consumer-driven megachurches, dying churches, and new churches whose future is fragile. Denominations will shrink, even vanish, while fewer and fewer evangelical churches will survive and thrive.

4. Despite some very successful developments in the past 25 years, Christian education has not produced a product that can withstand the rising tide of secularism. Evangelicalism has used its educational system primarily to staff its own needs and talk to itself.

5. The confrontation between cultural secularism and the faith at the core of evangelical efforts to "do good" is rapidly approaching. We will soon see that the good Evangelicals want to do will be viewed as bad by so many, and much of that work will not be done. Look for ministries to take on a less and less distinctively Christian face in order to survive.

6. Even in areas where Evangelicals imagine themselves strong (like the Bible Belt), we will find a great inability to pass on to our children a vital evangelical confidence in the Bible and the importance of the faith.

7. The money will dry up.

What will be left?

•Expect evangelicalism to look more like the pragmatic, therapeutic, church-growth oriented megachurches that have defined success. Emphasis will shift from doctrine to relevance, motivation, and personal success – resulting in churches further compromised and weakened in their ability to pass on the faith.

•Two of the beneficiaries will be the Roman Catholic and Orthodox communions. Evangelicals have been entering these churches in recent decades and that trend will continue, with more efforts aimed at the "conversion" of Evangelicals to the Catholic and Orthodox traditions.

•A small band will work hard to rescue the movement from its demise through theological renewal. This is an attractive, innovative, and tireless community with outstanding media, publishing, and leadership development. Nonetheless, I believe the coming evangelical collapse will not result in a second reformation, though it may result in benefits for many churches and the beginnings of new churches.

•The emerging church will largely vanish from the evangelical landscape, becoming part of the small segment of progressive mainline Protestants that remain true to the liberal vision.

•Aggressively evangelistic fundamentalist churches will begin to disappear.

•Charismatic-Pentecostal Christianity will become the majority report in evangelicalism. Can this community withstand heresy, relativism, and confusion? To do so, it must make a priority of biblical authority, responsible leadership, and a reemergence of orthodoxy.

•Evangelicalism needs a "rescue mission" from the world Christian community. It is time for missionaries to come to America from Asia and Africa. Will they come? Will they be able to bring to our culture a more vital form of Christianity?

•Expect a fragmented response to the culture war. Some Evangelicals will work to create their own countercultures, rather than try to change the culture at large. Some will continue to see conservatism and Christianity through one lens and will engage the culture war much as before – a status quo the media will be all too happy to perpetuate. A significant number, however, may give up political engagement for a discipleship of deeper impact.

Is all of this a bad thing?

Evangelicalism doesn't need a bailout. Much of it needs a funeral. But what about what remains?

Is it a good thing that denominations are going to become largely irrelevant? Only if the networks that replace them are able to marshal resources, training, and vision to the mission field and into the planting and equipping of churches.

Is it a good thing that many marginal believers will depart? Possibly, if churches begin and continue the work of renewing serious church membership. We must change the conversation from the maintenance of traditional churches to developing new and culturally appropriate ones.

The ascendency of Charismatic-Pentecostal-influenced worship around the world can be a major positive for the evangelical movement if reformation can reach those churches and if it is joined with the calling, training, and mentoring of leaders. If American churches come under more of the influence of the movement of the Holy Spirit in Africa and Asia, this will be a good thing.

Will the evangelicalizing of Catholic and Orthodox communions be a good development? One can hope for greater unity and appreciation, but the history of these developments seems to be much more about a renewed vigor to "evangelize" Protestantism in the name of unity.

Will the coming collapse get Evangelicals past the pragmatism and shallowness that has brought about the loss of substance and power? Probably not. The purveyors of the evangelical circus will be in fine form, selling their wares as the promised solution to every church's problems. I expect the landscape of megachurch vacuity to be around for a very long time.

Will it shake lose the prosperity Gospel from its parasitical place on the evangelical body of Christ? Evidence from similar periods is not encouraging. American Christians seldom seem to be able to separate their theology from an overall idea of personal affluence and success.

The loss of their political clout may impel many Evangelicals to reconsider the wisdom of trying to create a "godly society." That doesn't mean they'll focus solely on saving souls, but the increasing concern will be how to keep secularism out of church, not stop it altogether. The integrity of the church as a countercultural movement with a message of "empire subversion" will increasingly replace a message of cultural and political entitlement.

Despite all of these challenges, it is impossible not to be hopeful. As one commenter has already said, "Christianity loves a crumbling empire."

We can rejoice that in the ruins, new forms of Christian vitality and ministry will be born. I expect to see a vital and growing house church movement. This cannot help but be good for an evangelicalism that has made buildings, numbers, and paid staff its drugs for half a century.

We need new evangelicalism that learns from the past and listens more carefully to what God says about being His people in the midst of a powerful, idolatrous culture.

I'm not a prophet. My view of evangelicalism is not authoritative or infallible. I am certainly wrong in some of these predictions. But is there anyone who is observing evangelicalism in these times who does not sense that the future of our movement holds many dangers and much potential?

• Michael Spencer is a writer and communicator living and working in a Christian community in Kentucky. He describes himself as "a postevangelical reformation Christian in search of a Jesus-shaped spirituality." This essay is adapted from a series on his blog, InternetMonk.com.