Hot Compost
02-15-2009, 07:32 AM
during the last few years i have tried to contact some of the scientists quoted in articles about climate change, with some success.
initially i was curious if they had factored in the latent heat of melting. i.e., it takes a lot of energy to convert ice at 32 degrees F to water at 32 degrees F. once that phase change is accomplished, all of the energy that previously went into melting ice goes into raising the temperature of the system you're studying.
for the most part the scientists were quite accessible, but there was something else that came out in the conversations ... the feeling that they were understating the seriousness of their concerns.
me: "it's worse than you've publicly stated, isn't it ?"
climate change scientist: "yes."
these 2 articles are both related to climate change.
the first article addresses the subject of carbon release from the Arctic permafrost, a fancy way to say dead leaves stored in previously frozen ground. as it thaws, it decomposes, and outgases, a lot. the good news is that the nutrients are returned to the soil. the bad news is that to stop it you would have to build a greenhouse comprising the entire Arctic area - an activity that would in itself use up a lot of energy and create a lot of CO2.
the second article is by James Hansen, on coal-fired power plants.
Climate Change Even Worse than Predicted: Expert | CommonDreams.org (https://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/02/15-1)
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and estimated 350 billions tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been released through the burning of fossil fuels.
The new estimate of the amount of carbon stored in the Arctic's permafrost soils is around 1,000 billion tons. And the Arctic is warming faster than any other part of the globe.
James Hansen: Coal-fired power plants are death factories. Close them | Comment is free | The Observer (https://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal)
The climate is nearing tipping points. Changes are beginning to appear and there is a potential for explosive changes, effects that would be irreversible, if we do not rapidly slow fossil-fuel emissions over the next few decades. As Arctic sea ice melts, the darker ocean absorbs more sunlight and speeds melting. As the tundra melts, methane, a strong greenhouse gas, is released, causing more warming. As species are exterminated by shifting climate zones, ecosystems can collapse, destroying more species.
overall, i would say it's appropriate to modify our behavior - e.g. changing your commute, so that you live closer to work. whether that's by changing jobs, or moving homes.
because something as large as Earth's climate has momentum, however, i am concerned that we are past the "tipping point". in other words, if human activity ceased completely, changes already in progress would continue, and "positive feedback" effects (such as a small amount of Arctic temperature increase causing a much greater amount of temperature increase) would continue.
now, some of my few Republican friends would seize on this as a reason to do nothing.
since whether or not we are past the tipping point is something that climate change scientists will be debating for the foreseeable future, i think it's wise to modify our behavior, and to prepare for the possibility that it may also be, too late.
initially i was curious if they had factored in the latent heat of melting. i.e., it takes a lot of energy to convert ice at 32 degrees F to water at 32 degrees F. once that phase change is accomplished, all of the energy that previously went into melting ice goes into raising the temperature of the system you're studying.
for the most part the scientists were quite accessible, but there was something else that came out in the conversations ... the feeling that they were understating the seriousness of their concerns.
me: "it's worse than you've publicly stated, isn't it ?"
climate change scientist: "yes."
these 2 articles are both related to climate change.
the first article addresses the subject of carbon release from the Arctic permafrost, a fancy way to say dead leaves stored in previously frozen ground. as it thaws, it decomposes, and outgases, a lot. the good news is that the nutrients are returned to the soil. the bad news is that to stop it you would have to build a greenhouse comprising the entire Arctic area - an activity that would in itself use up a lot of energy and create a lot of CO2.
the second article is by James Hansen, on coal-fired power plants.
Climate Change Even Worse than Predicted: Expert | CommonDreams.org (https://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/02/15-1)
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and estimated 350 billions tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been released through the burning of fossil fuels.
The new estimate of the amount of carbon stored in the Arctic's permafrost soils is around 1,000 billion tons. And the Arctic is warming faster than any other part of the globe.
James Hansen: Coal-fired power plants are death factories. Close them | Comment is free | The Observer (https://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal)
The climate is nearing tipping points. Changes are beginning to appear and there is a potential for explosive changes, effects that would be irreversible, if we do not rapidly slow fossil-fuel emissions over the next few decades. As Arctic sea ice melts, the darker ocean absorbs more sunlight and speeds melting. As the tundra melts, methane, a strong greenhouse gas, is released, causing more warming. As species are exterminated by shifting climate zones, ecosystems can collapse, destroying more species.
overall, i would say it's appropriate to modify our behavior - e.g. changing your commute, so that you live closer to work. whether that's by changing jobs, or moving homes.
because something as large as Earth's climate has momentum, however, i am concerned that we are past the "tipping point". in other words, if human activity ceased completely, changes already in progress would continue, and "positive feedback" effects (such as a small amount of Arctic temperature increase causing a much greater amount of temperature increase) would continue.
now, some of my few Republican friends would seize on this as a reason to do nothing.
since whether or not we are past the tipping point is something that climate change scientists will be debating for the foreseeable future, i think it's wise to modify our behavior, and to prepare for the possibility that it may also be, too late.