Hot Compost
12-14-2008, 06:05 PM
Matt Simmons is the founder & CEO of Simmons Co. International, an Investment Bank in Texas that manages about $60 billion. I know this will cause some people to dislike or suspect him. However he is cut from a different cloth than Lee Raymond, the recently retired CEO of Exxon.
Matt's "speeches", which are basically technical talks about oil industry infrastructure and production rates around the world, are online at
https://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
Most of these are 50-75 page *.pdf's or some document like that.
Robert Hirsch is the lead author of the Hirsch report, a document released in 2005 about the oil industry - past, present, future. It's actually Dr. Robert Hirsch.
Matt is about 60 years old, and I guess Robert is about 70, because he references being a baby during the Depression of the '30's.
This is an interview by Jim Puplava with the 2 of them
https://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-1213-2.mp3
That's the link for the webcast from
https://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html
I suggest listening to them when you have gotten a good night's sleep & have some mental energy & some emotional resilience. If you are feeling sad about some of the other things in the world, such as the Iraq War, or what just happened in Mumbai, I suggest waiting to listen to them until your batteries are re-charged.
I was introduced to the subject of worldwide oil production in detail in 2005. For example by webcasts like this
https://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Simmons.html
That page has a link to Matt Simmons talking about his book Twilight in the Desert. He got a chance to study Saudi Arabian oil numbers, and he wrote a book about it.
I have listened to Matt speak about 5 times and I have never heard the alarm in his voice that I hear in the webcast that went online yesterday. He doesn't sound like an oil industry exec. He sounds more like a well-informed geologist who gives a damn and is quite scared, physically scared. However, he's not scared for himself.
I don't want to belabor the subject, too much. I started taking notes, at one point. About Mexico, one of America's 3 largest sources of foreign oil -
One excerpt was about Mexico's Cantarell oil field, the second largest field in the world after Ghawar in Saudi Arabia.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2.2 ==> .9
export ability will be over by the end of 2009
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Matt describes a production drop at Cantarell from 2.2 Million barrels per day about 3 years ago, to .9 million barrels today. However, they need to keep some of that oil for themselves. "export ability will be over by the end of 2009" means just that.
The note about the large field in Brazil that was recently discovered -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Brazil
20-40 years to develop
deep deep - drilling close to the magma
never been developed before
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
In other words, the super-giant (a giant is an oil-field with a billion barrels, if I remember correctly) oil field in Brazil that has recently been discovered is like the moon-shot in terms of technology - it involves drilling at depths & pressures that have never been drilled before. So there is some optimism involved in thinking that that oil field will be profitable and that it will be developed.
If you are interested in this sort of information, one other resource is Ken Deffeyes, a retired geologist from Princeton. Ken Deffeyes, retired Princeton geology professor. He estimated the peak of liquid fuel production (oil + things like liquefied natural gas) at November 2005, then revised it to December 2005. He is probably scratching his chin thinking about a data point in 2007 that indicates a plateau from 2005 to 2007.
These are the 3 main guys I have learned from about the oil industry. They also reference Faith Birol at the EIA. Faith Birol has recently made a statement about oil production in 2009. 9.1% decline. He is known for under-stating the rate of decline.
There are so many numbers it is difficult to assimilate in one sitting, or 10 sittings.
But it's worth starting. If you are interested, the words I bolded are the words to do a web search on.
This is a subject that is inextricably inter-related with Global Warming. The "good news", relative to global warming, is that there will be less oil to burn (carbon dioxide & water are the normal products of combustion). The bad news, relative to people freezing to death, is that there will be less oil to burn. This also relates to more reliance on coal as an energy source.
Additional resources, mostly politics-free
https://www.theoildrum.com/
https://www.energybulletin.net/index.php
One local person who has also studied this subject in great detail is Richard Heinberg.
Matt's "speeches", which are basically technical talks about oil industry infrastructure and production rates around the world, are online at
https://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
Most of these are 50-75 page *.pdf's or some document like that.
Robert Hirsch is the lead author of the Hirsch report, a document released in 2005 about the oil industry - past, present, future. It's actually Dr. Robert Hirsch.
Matt is about 60 years old, and I guess Robert is about 70, because he references being a baby during the Depression of the '30's.
This is an interview by Jim Puplava with the 2 of them
https://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-1213-2.mp3
That's the link for the webcast from
https://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html
I suggest listening to them when you have gotten a good night's sleep & have some mental energy & some emotional resilience. If you are feeling sad about some of the other things in the world, such as the Iraq War, or what just happened in Mumbai, I suggest waiting to listen to them until your batteries are re-charged.
I was introduced to the subject of worldwide oil production in detail in 2005. For example by webcasts like this
https://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Simmons.html
That page has a link to Matt Simmons talking about his book Twilight in the Desert. He got a chance to study Saudi Arabian oil numbers, and he wrote a book about it.
I have listened to Matt speak about 5 times and I have never heard the alarm in his voice that I hear in the webcast that went online yesterday. He doesn't sound like an oil industry exec. He sounds more like a well-informed geologist who gives a damn and is quite scared, physically scared. However, he's not scared for himself.
I don't want to belabor the subject, too much. I started taking notes, at one point. About Mexico, one of America's 3 largest sources of foreign oil -
One excerpt was about Mexico's Cantarell oil field, the second largest field in the world after Ghawar in Saudi Arabia.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2.2 ==> .9
export ability will be over by the end of 2009
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Matt describes a production drop at Cantarell from 2.2 Million barrels per day about 3 years ago, to .9 million barrels today. However, they need to keep some of that oil for themselves. "export ability will be over by the end of 2009" means just that.
The note about the large field in Brazil that was recently discovered -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Brazil
20-40 years to develop
deep deep - drilling close to the magma
never been developed before
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
In other words, the super-giant (a giant is an oil-field with a billion barrels, if I remember correctly) oil field in Brazil that has recently been discovered is like the moon-shot in terms of technology - it involves drilling at depths & pressures that have never been drilled before. So there is some optimism involved in thinking that that oil field will be profitable and that it will be developed.
If you are interested in this sort of information, one other resource is Ken Deffeyes, a retired geologist from Princeton. Ken Deffeyes, retired Princeton geology professor. He estimated the peak of liquid fuel production (oil + things like liquefied natural gas) at November 2005, then revised it to December 2005. He is probably scratching his chin thinking about a data point in 2007 that indicates a plateau from 2005 to 2007.
These are the 3 main guys I have learned from about the oil industry. They also reference Faith Birol at the EIA. Faith Birol has recently made a statement about oil production in 2009. 9.1% decline. He is known for under-stating the rate of decline.
There are so many numbers it is difficult to assimilate in one sitting, or 10 sittings.
But it's worth starting. If you are interested, the words I bolded are the words to do a web search on.
This is a subject that is inextricably inter-related with Global Warming. The "good news", relative to global warming, is that there will be less oil to burn (carbon dioxide & water are the normal products of combustion). The bad news, relative to people freezing to death, is that there will be less oil to burn. This also relates to more reliance on coal as an energy source.
Additional resources, mostly politics-free
https://www.theoildrum.com/
https://www.energybulletin.net/index.php
One local person who has also studied this subject in great detail is Richard Heinberg.