Obama bouncing back!

[Mike Peterson]

As of today, 9/12, the Gallup Poll, https://www.gallup.com/home.aspx, shows Obama regaining lost ground on Senator McBush. Obama is closing in on Senator McSame, 45% to 48%. As this trend continues, it will usher in Obama's future victory as the next president of the U.S.

Mike

[Mike Peterson]

As of today, 9/13, the Gallup Poll, https://www.gallup.com/home.aspx, shows Obama closing in on Senator McBush, 45% to 47%. That's one full point in just one day! At that rate, Obama will overtake Senator McSame in three to six days. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Mike

[Mike Peterson]

Ohhh, yes, baby!!

Today, 9/16, the Gallup Poll, https://www.gallup.com/home.aspx, shows Obama stepping on the heels of Senator McBush, 46% to 47%. That's just one point! Senator McSame doesn't stand a chance and Obama will win the election by 5 points.

Mike

[Mike Peterson]

Y E S ! !

OBAMA OVERTAKES McPALIN, 47% TO 45% !!!

This wonderful news, as of today, can be seen here:
https://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

I predict that Obama will win the election by 5 points.

Mike

[Sonomamark]

It gets better, Mike.

Again--national tracking polls don't tell you anything. If Obama picks up 5 million votes in California, it doesn't have any impact on the election, because he was going to carry CA anyway. Likewise McPain in Texas, or Alabama.

But when you look at the state-by-state polls, the dew is definitely off the ninny. The Palin bounce is ending, and Obama has pulled ahead in the most credible polls in VA, IN and NM, and in a good one in OH, and he's very close in FL. New Mexico, in fact, is pretty much out of reach for McCain, as is Iowa. Obama will carry all Kerry states, which means he only needs VA or CO to win. He doesn't even have to carry either Ohio or Florida to win (which I personally doubt he will--if he does, he will also have carried VA, CO and several other states, in a landslide).

The ground game, the economic coming home to roost of eight years of Hurricane George, the growing disenchantment with Caribou Barbie, the strong connection on the part of more than 2/3 of the voters of McPain with Bush and of Obama with "change", plus the new-registrant factor all point to an Obama win.

Still, the country is deeply split, and the Repugnicants will do their usual vote caging, voter suppression, and electoral fraud. They're already at it, even in California (cf San Bernardino County).

I feel pretty sanguine about this, but we all have to do the work: volunteer, give money, get the word out. Seeing as we're standing on the edge of the New Dustbowl and a Supreme Court of reactionary authoritarians hangs in the balance, this is certainly the most important election we will see in our lifetimes.

Believe, but work! We can win this one!



Mark



Y E S ! !

OBAMA OVERTAKES McPALIN, 47% TO 45% !!!

This wonderful news, as of today, can be seen here:
https://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

I predict that Obama will win the election by 5 points.

Mike

[Mike Peterson]

Thanks Mark. That's great info to have going into a presidential election that, nonetheless, can still go either way.

That said, Obama has pulled ahead even further and while 48% to 44% isn't exactly leaving McSame in the dust, it's still damn good.

Mike


It gets better, Mike.

Again--national tracking polls don't tell you anything. If Obama picks up 5 million votes in California, it doesn't have any impact on the election, because he was going to carry CA anyway. Likewise McPain in Texas, or Alabama.

But when you look at the state-by-state polls, the dew is definitely off the ninny. The Palin bounce is ending, and Obama has pulled ahead in the most credible polls in VA, IN and NM, and in a good one in OH, and he's very close in FL. New Mexico, in fact, is pretty much out of reach for McCain, as is Iowa. Obama will carry all Kerry states, which means he only needs VA or CO to win. He doesn't even have to carry either Ohio or Florida to win (which I personally doubt he will--if he does, he will also have carried VA, CO and several other states, in a landslide).

The ground game, the economic coming home to roost of eight years of Hurricane George, the growing disenchantment with Caribou Barbie, the strong connection on the part of more than 2/3 of the voters of McPain with Bush and of Obama with "change", plus the new-registrant factor all point to an Obama win.

Still, the country is deeply split, and the Repugnicants will do their usual vote caging, voter suppression, and electoral fraud. They're already at it, even in California (cf San Bernardino County).

I feel pretty sanguine about this, but we all have to do the work: volunteer, give money, get the word out. Seeing as we're standing on the edge of the New Dustbowl and a Supreme Court of reactionary authoritarians hangs in the balance, this is certainly the most important election we will see in our lifetimes.

Believe, but work! We can win this one!



Mark

[Hummingbear]

But when you look at the state-by-state polls, the dew is definitely off the ninny. [snip]

Still, the country is deeply split, and the Repugnicants will do their usual vote caging, voter suppression, and electoral fraud. They're already at it, even in California (cf San Bernardino County).

I feel pretty sanguine about this, but we all have to do the work: volunteer, give money, get the word out. Seeing as we're standing on the edge of the New Dustbowl and a Supreme Court of reactionary authoritarians hangs in the balance, this is certainly the most important election we will see in our lifetimes.

Believe, but work! We can win this one!

Mark

Sanguinity doesn't suit you, Mark, nor does it befit the times.

The electoral fraud possibilities are endless; we are fighting for our lives, and the life of democracy itself. I am not at all encourage by the passivity with which the Democratic Party allowed the votes to be caged and manipulated in two consecutive elections.

And as far as the polling goes, I have two words of caution for you:
"Tom Bradley."

Yes, we can win this one. We can lose it, too. And there's a lot to lose.

[Sonomamark]

Hummingbear,

First of all, this ain't 2000 or 2004. The Obama campaign has put together a legal team which has already filed suit in two states over attempts at vote caging and has made it clear they will fight everywhere, for every vote.

Secondly, 2000 and 2004 really came down to single states: if you gamed FL and OH, respectively, you won. Because of Obama's 22-state strategy, that won't work this time. Kerry and Gore ran a Clinton-style campaign in which they only fought to eke out a bare victory in a very limited number of states--if that failed, they lost. But Obama has multiple paths to victory with a variety of different combinations of states, many of which have Democrats as their election officials, instead of Katherine Harris or Ken Blackwell. The most contested state in the country, Colorado, is one of them.

Third, there is no Bradley effect: period. There was none demonstrated in the primaries (where Obama OUT-performed the polls, especially in the SOUTH), and no one has been able to come up with a legitimate model showing it in this election cycle. Bradley was 20 years ago--the people who might have claimed to vote Dem but were closet racists back then have all joined the Republican Party as part of the Gingrich transition. Nate Silver at 538 has a good article on the lack of a Bradley effect up today.

Agreed: lots to lose, and we have to work hard. But things look good. That's all I'm saying. And McPain dig themselves a deeper hole with each passing day as they pander on the economy and flip-flop on regulation. It's not working: Palin's approval numbers are in free-fall and Obama is winning the "change" meme by two-to-one.


MG


Sanguinity doesn't suit you, Mark, nor does it befit the times.

The electoral fraud possibilities are endless; we are fighting for our lives, and the life of democracy itself. I am not at all encourage by the passivity with which the Democratic Party allowed the votes to be caged and manipulated in two consecutive elections.

And as far as the polling goes, I have two words of caution for you:
"Tom Bradley."

Yes, we can win this one. We can lose it, too. And there's a lot to lose.

[Mike Peterson]

Wow again, Mark! You know your shit.

I remember way back when, here in California, I voted both times for LA mayor Tom Bradley for governor of California, against Dukemajian. It was clear then that racism had the upper hand. And that's not the case in 2008 for the race to Pennsylvania Ave.

I'm not saying that race is not an important ingredient in the way that millions of Americans will vote this November, because it is. But the observations you've made, I feel, are accurate and we will probably see Obama sitting in the Oval Office as of January 2008.

Thanks for your input,

Mike



Hummingbear,

First of all, this ain't 2000 or 2004. The Obama campaign has put together a legal team which has already filed suit in two states over attempts at vote caging and has made it clear they will fight everywhere, for every vote.

Secondly, 2000 and 2004 really came down to single states: if you gamed FL and OH, respectively, you won. Because of Obama's 22-state strategy, that won't work this time. Kerry and Gore ran a Clinton-style campaign in which they only fought to eke out a bare victory in a very limited number of states--if that failed, they lost. But Obama has multiple paths to victory with a variety of different combinations of states, many of which have Democrats as their election officials, instead of Katherine Harris or Ken Blackwell. The most contested state in the country, Colorado, is one of them.

Third, there is no Bradley effect: period. There was none demonstrated in the primaries (where Obama OUT-performed the polls, especially in the SOUTH), and no one has been able to come up with a legitimate model showing it in this election cycle. Bradley was 20 years ago--the people who might have claimed to vote Dem but were closet racists back then have all joined the Republican Party as part of the Gingrich transition. Nate Silver at 538 has a good article on the lack of a Bradley effect up today.

Agreed: lots to lose, and we have to work hard. But things look good. That's all I'm saying. And McPain dig themselves a deeper hole with each passing day as they pander on the economy and flip-flop on regulation. It's not working: Palin's approval numbers are in free-fall and Obama is winning the "change" meme by two-to-one.


MG

[Mike Peterson]

Obama keeps on climbing: 49% to 44%. Our man is cruising ahead of McBush.

But our work isn't done yet because anything can happen between now and November. Go out and vote and contact your local Democratic Party headquarters to see what you can do to help, such as phonebanking the swing states.

Mike

[Mike Peterson]

Now I'm starting to get sanguine here! (Sanguine means cheerfully optimistic in this context).

Obama just keeps on advancing with a newer and better lead of 50% to 44%! Today is 9/20 and you can see these results at:
https://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

Mike

[psaltz]

[QUOTE=Mike Peterson;69825] . . . as of January 2008.

Oops, too late! ;=O