Barry
09-20-2018, 03:16 PM
From Larry Litvak (https://www.linkedin.com/in/larrylitvak/):
This email shares my recommendations for donations to candidates and groups for the upcoming House and Senate elections. As many of you know, I have been making these recommendations every two years for the past twelve years, and many of you have donated generously in the past.
The Democrats have a real opportunity to take back control of the House but it is far from guaranted. Currently, 203 seats are rated as "Lean" or better for the Dems. If the Democrats win all these seats, they only need to capture 50% of the 30 races rated as "Toss-ups," to get to the 218 magic number. In the Senate, the Democrats need to pick up a net of two seats for a majority, but of the 35 Senate seats up this year, 26 are already held by Democrats and 9 of those are in states Trump won. Betting markets currently imply only a 22% chance of getting Senate control, compared to 66% for the House returning to the Democrats.
Because capturing control of one of the legislative chambers is critical, and the House is by far the best opportunity, I am recommending donations to more House candidates (10) than Senate candidates (2). In addition, I am recommending a parallel donation to a fund which supports grassroots efforts to get young, minority and lower-income voters engaged in the midterms, which will help with several House and Senate contests.
HOUSE CANDIDATES
My House candidates are all in races rated as toss-ups and have been screened to be reasonably progressive in their political orientation. None of these Democratic House Candidates are incumbents. All of the seats for which they are contending are currently held by Republicans.
CA-10 Josh Harder (Central Valley, vs. incumbent Republican Jeff Denham)
CA-25 Katie Hill (N.E. LA County, Republican Ed Royce retired from this seat)
CA-45 Katie Porter (N. Orange County, vs. incumbent Republican Mimi Walters)
ME-02 Jared Golden (Northern Maine, vs. incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin)
MI-08 Elissa Slotkin (Oakland County and Lansing, vs. incumbent Republican Mike Bishop)
MN-03 Dean Phillips (Twin Cities west suburbs, vs. incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen)
NJ-03 Andy Kim (S. Central NJ, vs. incumbent Republican Tom Macarthur)
NJ-07 Tom Malinowski (N. Central NJ, vs. incumbent Republican Leonard Lance)
NC-09 Dan McCready (Charlotte suburbs, incumbent Republican Robert Pittenger lost in primary)
WA-08 Kim Schrier (Seattle suburbs, Republican Dave Reichert retired from this seat)
You can donate to the recommended House and Senate candidates on my ActBlue (https://secure.actblue.com/donate/larry2018picks) page. I encourage you to donate as soon as possible so the candidates will have sufficient time to put your funds to good use.
SENATE CANDIDATES
My Senate candidates are all in races rates as toss-ups and have been screened to be reasonably progressive in their political orientation.
FL Bill Nelson (incumbent, vs. FL Governor Rick Scott)
NV Jacky Rosen (congressperson vs. incumbent Republican Dean Heller)
You can donate to the recommended House and Senate candidates on my ActBlue (https://secure.actblue.com/donate/larry2018picks) page.
GRASSROOTS VOTER MOBILIZATION FUNDING
House and Senate candidate campaigns, even good ones, are often only moderately effective at mobilizing less engaged groups of voters. The best ones at doing this work are unsung grassroots organizations in 2018 battleground districts and states that work neighbor-to-neighbor, usually on relatively small budget. The Airlift (https://airlift.fund/) Fund (“getting money to the frontlines”) includes 14 of these groups that have been screened in based on early accomplishments, strategies, inspired leaders and geographic focus. They are all 501-C4 organizations, meaning that your donation is not tax deductible but allowing them to engage in partisan political activities.
You can donate to the Airlift Fund on its own ActBlue (https://secure.actblue.com/donate/airlift) page.
WHAT ELSE YOU CAN DO
As important as donating to key races (and arguably more important) is personally volunteering to help mobilize voters. If you are not already working in a midterm race or with a local group, go to The Last Weekend (https://thelastweekend.org/) to easily connect with opportunities to phonebank, textbank or canvass in support of key campaigns.
HOW I SELECTED THE RACES
House: For the House, I started with the 30 races that Cook Political Report currently rates as toss-ups. These are the closest races and the ones mostly likely to determine who controls the House. I then looked at each of these candidates and contests from three points of view. First, I looked at what issues the candidates were emphasizing and identified those candidates, among the toss-ups, that were relatively progressive. I then looked at the financial situation in the races, eliminating candidates who are able to self-fund their campaigns, for example. Finally, I took a somewhat more granular look at the data, including most recent polling, to make sure that I was comfortable with the electoral chances of my final list. If you want to some general background about the individual candidates I am recommending and their races, I recommend reading their Cook Political Report profiles (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OIuRy2U6wkvGuIkNNjKP36I2KX0_Rnb8/view?usp=sharing).
Senate: For the Senate, I started with the eight races Cook Political Report currently rates as toss-ups, five of which are seats held by Dems (MT, ND, FL, IN, MO) and three by Republicans (NV, AZ, TN). I then looked at the how progressive the Democratic candidates were in these races, based on their voting records. On this basis, I chose Jacky Rosen, who is currently a congressperson from Nevada vying for the Senate seat of Republican Dean Heller, and Bill Nelson, who is defending his seat against Republican Governor Tim Scott. The Senate toss-ups races this year tend to be in more conservative states, so the Democratic candidates in these key races tend to be less progressive than the typical Democratic Senator.
Grassroots Voter Mobilization: I have been involved personally in the creation of the Airlift Fund, so I can attest to its quality and relative uniqueness.
SOURCES OF FURTHER INFORMATION
Here is some of the raw information on which I drew in making my assessments:
Cook Political Ratings House, 9-7-18 (https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings)
Cook Political Ratings Senate, 8-24-18 (https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings)
Cook Political Reports, The Bottom Line in the 66 Most Competitive Races, 8-24-18 (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OIuRy2U6wkvGuIkNNjKP36I2KX0_Rnb8/view?usp=sharing)
FiveThirtyEight House District Forecasts (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo)
Progressive Ratings of Senators (https://progressivepunch.org/scores.htm?house=senate)
2018 Progressive Candidates (https://joannchateau.com/2018-progressive-candidates-ballot-initiatives-nationwide/)
I encourage you to forward this email to people who you think may be interested. Let me know if you have any questions.
Regards,
Lawrence Litvak
[email protected]
415-595-0030 (c)
www.linkedin.com/in/larrylitvak (https://www.linkedin.com/in/larrylitvak)
This email shares my recommendations for donations to candidates and groups for the upcoming House and Senate elections. As many of you know, I have been making these recommendations every two years for the past twelve years, and many of you have donated generously in the past.
The Democrats have a real opportunity to take back control of the House but it is far from guaranted. Currently, 203 seats are rated as "Lean" or better for the Dems. If the Democrats win all these seats, they only need to capture 50% of the 30 races rated as "Toss-ups," to get to the 218 magic number. In the Senate, the Democrats need to pick up a net of two seats for a majority, but of the 35 Senate seats up this year, 26 are already held by Democrats and 9 of those are in states Trump won. Betting markets currently imply only a 22% chance of getting Senate control, compared to 66% for the House returning to the Democrats.
Because capturing control of one of the legislative chambers is critical, and the House is by far the best opportunity, I am recommending donations to more House candidates (10) than Senate candidates (2). In addition, I am recommending a parallel donation to a fund which supports grassroots efforts to get young, minority and lower-income voters engaged in the midterms, which will help with several House and Senate contests.
HOUSE CANDIDATES
My House candidates are all in races rated as toss-ups and have been screened to be reasonably progressive in their political orientation. None of these Democratic House Candidates are incumbents. All of the seats for which they are contending are currently held by Republicans.
CA-10 Josh Harder (Central Valley, vs. incumbent Republican Jeff Denham)
CA-25 Katie Hill (N.E. LA County, Republican Ed Royce retired from this seat)
CA-45 Katie Porter (N. Orange County, vs. incumbent Republican Mimi Walters)
ME-02 Jared Golden (Northern Maine, vs. incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin)
MI-08 Elissa Slotkin (Oakland County and Lansing, vs. incumbent Republican Mike Bishop)
MN-03 Dean Phillips (Twin Cities west suburbs, vs. incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen)
NJ-03 Andy Kim (S. Central NJ, vs. incumbent Republican Tom Macarthur)
NJ-07 Tom Malinowski (N. Central NJ, vs. incumbent Republican Leonard Lance)
NC-09 Dan McCready (Charlotte suburbs, incumbent Republican Robert Pittenger lost in primary)
WA-08 Kim Schrier (Seattle suburbs, Republican Dave Reichert retired from this seat)
You can donate to the recommended House and Senate candidates on my ActBlue (https://secure.actblue.com/donate/larry2018picks) page. I encourage you to donate as soon as possible so the candidates will have sufficient time to put your funds to good use.
SENATE CANDIDATES
My Senate candidates are all in races rates as toss-ups and have been screened to be reasonably progressive in their political orientation.
FL Bill Nelson (incumbent, vs. FL Governor Rick Scott)
NV Jacky Rosen (congressperson vs. incumbent Republican Dean Heller)
You can donate to the recommended House and Senate candidates on my ActBlue (https://secure.actblue.com/donate/larry2018picks) page.
GRASSROOTS VOTER MOBILIZATION FUNDING
House and Senate candidate campaigns, even good ones, are often only moderately effective at mobilizing less engaged groups of voters. The best ones at doing this work are unsung grassroots organizations in 2018 battleground districts and states that work neighbor-to-neighbor, usually on relatively small budget. The Airlift (https://airlift.fund/) Fund (“getting money to the frontlines”) includes 14 of these groups that have been screened in based on early accomplishments, strategies, inspired leaders and geographic focus. They are all 501-C4 organizations, meaning that your donation is not tax deductible but allowing them to engage in partisan political activities.
You can donate to the Airlift Fund on its own ActBlue (https://secure.actblue.com/donate/airlift) page.
WHAT ELSE YOU CAN DO
As important as donating to key races (and arguably more important) is personally volunteering to help mobilize voters. If you are not already working in a midterm race or with a local group, go to The Last Weekend (https://thelastweekend.org/) to easily connect with opportunities to phonebank, textbank or canvass in support of key campaigns.
HOW I SELECTED THE RACES
House: For the House, I started with the 30 races that Cook Political Report currently rates as toss-ups. These are the closest races and the ones mostly likely to determine who controls the House. I then looked at each of these candidates and contests from three points of view. First, I looked at what issues the candidates were emphasizing and identified those candidates, among the toss-ups, that were relatively progressive. I then looked at the financial situation in the races, eliminating candidates who are able to self-fund their campaigns, for example. Finally, I took a somewhat more granular look at the data, including most recent polling, to make sure that I was comfortable with the electoral chances of my final list. If you want to some general background about the individual candidates I am recommending and their races, I recommend reading their Cook Political Report profiles (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OIuRy2U6wkvGuIkNNjKP36I2KX0_Rnb8/view?usp=sharing).
Senate: For the Senate, I started with the eight races Cook Political Report currently rates as toss-ups, five of which are seats held by Dems (MT, ND, FL, IN, MO) and three by Republicans (NV, AZ, TN). I then looked at the how progressive the Democratic candidates were in these races, based on their voting records. On this basis, I chose Jacky Rosen, who is currently a congressperson from Nevada vying for the Senate seat of Republican Dean Heller, and Bill Nelson, who is defending his seat against Republican Governor Tim Scott. The Senate toss-ups races this year tend to be in more conservative states, so the Democratic candidates in these key races tend to be less progressive than the typical Democratic Senator.
Grassroots Voter Mobilization: I have been involved personally in the creation of the Airlift Fund, so I can attest to its quality and relative uniqueness.
SOURCES OF FURTHER INFORMATION
Here is some of the raw information on which I drew in making my assessments:
Cook Political Ratings House, 9-7-18 (https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings)
Cook Political Ratings Senate, 8-24-18 (https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings)
Cook Political Reports, The Bottom Line in the 66 Most Competitive Races, 8-24-18 (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OIuRy2U6wkvGuIkNNjKP36I2KX0_Rnb8/view?usp=sharing)
FiveThirtyEight House District Forecasts (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo)
Progressive Ratings of Senators (https://progressivepunch.org/scores.htm?house=senate)
2018 Progressive Candidates (https://joannchateau.com/2018-progressive-candidates-ballot-initiatives-nationwide/)
I encourage you to forward this email to people who you think may be interested. Let me know if you have any questions.
Regards,
Lawrence Litvak
[email protected]
415-595-0030 (c)
www.linkedin.com/in/larrylitvak (https://www.linkedin.com/in/larrylitvak)