Here's some good analysis article by the Sonoma West Times and News:
https://i.imgur.com/yv1Iu.png (https://www.sonomawest.com/sonoma_west_times_and_news/)
Traditional and new tactics in Fifth District campaign (https://www.sonomawest.com/sonoma_west_times_and_news/news/traditional-and-new-tactics-in-fifth-district-campaigns/article_3f6c3b12-803a-11e6-a2ad-074e1055b351.html)
Posted: Wednesday, September 21, 2016 1:30 pm | Updated: 2:54 pm,
by Amie Windsor Sonoma West Staff Writer
[email protected]
Swing states — even swing counties — are cropping up frequently in the national news as Election Day nears. Headlines scream about “battlegrounds” where Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump have honed their campaigns to better educate, understand and instill hope and fear the people of those communities.
The Fifth District election between Noreen Evans and Lynda Hopkins is similar. With 703 votes separating the two nominees in the June 3 primaries, both campaigns have focused on understanding the needs and concerns of Fifth District constituents, which often vary from precinct to precinct.
Homelessness, affordable housing, environmental protection for the coast and the Russian River, updating road infrastructure and getting a handle on the county’s pensions are common topics of conversation for constituents.
While shades of gray separate the two candidates on many issues, the method in which they have conducted their campaigns heading into the general election are like night and day, according to David McCuan, political science professor at Sonoma State University.
“Noreen is running a classic base-plus one approach,” McCuan said. “While Lynda, as a newcomer, is running a shock and sizzle campaign.”
Evans, explained McCuan, needs to continue to gather support of the labor and environmental groups — the base — and gain additional support amongst those whose ideals line up with the base.
“These are the habitual voters who have shown up year after year for decades,” McCuan said.
Evans has focused on walking the precincts, hosting meet-and-greets and events targeted at environmental and labor groups since the June primary.
“I’m really excited about my upcoming events,” Evans said, citing last Sunday’s California Dreamin’ event with the ousted executive director of the California Coastal Commission, Dr. Charles Lester, in Bodega Bay and an upcoming discussion panel on the Russian River’s health slated for Wednesday, Sept. 28.
“It’s important to have these conversations,” Evans said.
Evans has also focused a lot of her campaign on pinpointing Hopkins’ financers, which include real estate, development and construction organizations, and farm and winery interests.
“It’s a common campaign tactic,” Evans said. “When you talk about the facts, the truth comes out,” she added.
McCuan said that Hopkins’ approach to a reconstructed government and campaign has cut into the traditional base of voters.
“A lot of people are tired of the old ‘us versus them’ mentality,” McCuan said.
An example of Hopkins reaching out into the base is her aim is to give a political voice to the unincorporated parts of the county.
“There are parts of Sonoma County that have been otherwise neglected,” Hopkins said.
As part of her grassroots government campaign, Hopkins has pitched a community improvement district to these “neglected” areas.
“The idea is to create a local elected body in unincorporated Sonoma County, such as the coastline and Russian River,” Hopkins said.
The districts would receive transient occupancy tax (TOT) funds to invest how the community wishes, such as recreation programs or issues related to homelessness, Hopkins said.
“It empowers the community to be able to take initiative,” Hopkins said.
With this idea, Hopkins has been able to gather some of the traditional voting base into her camp, while also targeting the younger and more progressive demographic of voters, such as the “hipsters, Millennials and gentleman farmers,” McCuan said.
Also helping her gain the younger population is her “shock and sizzle” tactics, which often include profanity — both during opening statements and in her promotional materials, including a recently released video of Hopkins kneeling in a field of cow pies.
While the pockets of tight votes from the primaries will likely remain the same, more people will turn out for the general election, McCuan said.
“You get a more diverse electorate, a more focused ballot,” he said. This November’s ballot contains many more measures than June’s, including hot countywide issues like the GMO ban, a TOT increase and tax measures to raise funds for the libraries and regional parks.
Those voting on such measures will identify stronger with one of the candidates, based on each candidate’s position on the measure. The measures, McCuan said, can really influence the way the Fifth District Supervisor vote turns out.
“That could change how people vote,” he said.